Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Where to from here? Blue passports,family, career—and Donald Trump

Abstract

In this essay, we offer our stories of family and migration under a Donald Trump presidency. We are a lesbian couple; one of us is a citizen of the United States while the other is a citizen of a Muslim country. We use autoethnographic methods to explore and interrogate our “messy and fabulous” journey of liminality; our journey of belonging and exclusion, where we grapple with issues related to sexuality, family, career, and citizenship. Our “voices” are used both individually and in unison, to highlight our intersectional and relational selves. We intend this work to contribute to the many ways we can better understand and appreciate the bountiful and colorful vistas of lesbian families’ migrant experiences.     

How discrimination in adoptive,foster, and medical systems harms LGBTQ+ families: Research on the experiences of prospective parents

Abstract

LGBTQ+?people face multiple challenges to parenthood because of barriers such as discriminatory legislation and policies influencing foster parenting, adoption, and reproductive health services. This study documents these obstacles and examines their impact through a grounded theory analysis of interviews of LGBTQ+?prospective parents. Stressors included social isolation, unnecessary medicalization, prohibitive financial costs related to accessing social and medical services (sometimes across state lines), and being denied services, parental leave, and insurance coverage. Findings indicate that heteronormative attitudes and discrimination can lead to debilitating and enduring harm upon the economic, emotional, and relational well-being of growing LGBTQ+?families.     

Power play: the use of space to control and signify power in the workplace

ABSTRACT

The findings of this article emerge from an eight-month study examining career identity practices amongst a select group of fitness professionals in the U.K. We examine how the inter-relationship between physical and social space can denote how power is acquired, displayed, and used by individuals interacting in a shared space. The findings show that power is signified through spatial practices as individuals negotiate through triadic space, creating an identity of space and place for both trainer and client that identifies power, and signifies who has power. Fitness professionals with high levels of symbolic power are able to subvert organizational spatial norms to better serve themselves and their clients, while those with lower levels of symbolic power are forced to, or choose to, negotiate or abdicate space to others. These findings are relevant to a wide range of occupations where self-employment and contract workers interact in shared space.     

Orientalism and Russian speaking minority regions in Europe: representing Narva

ABSTRACT

This paper uses the concept of orientalism to propose a framework for understanding the relationship between international news media and individual representations of minority groups in Europe. Even though the case study focuses on Narva, Estonia, the model here provides a basis for comparing the identity formation practices, particularly of geographically separated Russian speaking minority groups in Europe. Narva’s large Russian speaking population and geographical proximity to Russia have been pinpointed as security concerns due to the convenient source of information and mass media sponsored by the Russian Federation causing a misrepresentation of Russian speaking minority groups in international media.     

Protesting the police: anti-police brutality claims as a predictor of police repression of protest

Police face a unique dilemma when policing protests that explicitly target them, such as the anti-police brutality protests that have swept the United States recently. Because extant research finds that police response to protests is largely a function of the threat – and especially the threat to police – posed by a protest, police may repress these protests more than other protests, as they may constitute a challenge to their legitimacy as a profession. Other research suggests police agencies are strongly motivated by reputational concerns, suggesting they may treat these protests with special caution to avoid further public scrutiny. Using data on over 7,000 protests events in New York over a 35-year period from 1960 to 1995, I test these competing hypotheses and find that police respond to protests making anti-police brutality claims much more aggressively than other protests, after controlling for indicators of threat and weakness used in previous studies. Police are about twice as likely to show up to anti-police brutality protests compared with otherwise similar protests making other claims and, once there, they intervene (either make arrests, use force or violence against protesters, or both) at nearly half of these protests, compared to about one in three protests making other claims.     

Gender and Casual Sexual Activity From Adolescence to Emerging Adulthood: Social and Life Course Correlates

The prevalence of casual sexual activity among teens and emerging adults has led to much public attention. Yet limited research has investigated whether the number of casual sexual partners per year changes as heterosexual men and women transition from adolescence into emerging adulthood. We considered the influence of social context and life course factors on the number of casual sex partners. We examined four waves of interviews from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) and used negative binomial growth curve models to investigate patterns of change in the number of casual sex partners (N = 1,196) ages 15 to 22. Men and women both reported increases in the number of casual sex partners over time and did not differ from each other in the rate of change over time. In all, 40% of respondents reported a recent casual sex partner at age 22. Number of prior dating relationships, education status, substance use, and perceptions of peer sexual behavior significantly influenced the number of casual sex partners. Emerging adults who did not complete high school, compared to those enrolled in four-year degree programs, reported significantly more partners. The findings contribute to research on intimate relationships and provide insights for programs targeting emerging adults.