我国工业电力用户价值画像模型构建与应用研究

在新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情对我国电力市场造成巨大冲击的宏观背景下,为进一步提升我国供电企业营销服务资源配置效能,最大化撬动供电企业的综合效益,笔者开展了我国工业电力用户价值画像模型研究。本文对电力用户价值进行了分析和定义,从安全稳定价值(S)、经济效益价值(E)、契约信用价值(C)与有序用电价值(O)四个维度,构建了我国工业电力用户价值评级SECO指标模型,并集成智能算法中的RST(粗糙集理论)与数据挖掘技术中的PAM(围绕中心点切割聚类算法),构造了一种半监督自动化用户价值识别、预测与特征展示模型,模型包括基于RST的指标体系设计、基于Gower相异度系数与PAM的用户价值评级,以及基于用户画像的价值特征展示三大模块。其中,为增强聚类分析结果的科学性与可靠性,采用霍普金斯统计量进行聚类趋势判断,利用间隔统计量输出理论最佳聚类数目,运用轮廓系数评估模型效果与识别误判样本。以我国南方电网公司下属某供电企业电力用户数据进行模型测试与应用研究,得到具有较高解释性与区分度的用户细分方案,表明本模型是一套可行有效的用户价值评级与特征可视化工具。     

Sequential Hypothesis Tests for Identifying the Minimum Dose with a Threshold Effect

We propose a procedure to identify a lowest dose having greater effect than a threshold dose under the assumption of monotonicity of dose mean response in dose response test. So, we use statistics based on contrasts among sample means and apply a group sequential procedure to our procedure to identify effectively the dose. If we can identify the dose at an early step in the sequential test, since we can terminate the procedure with a few observations, the procedure is useful from an economical point of view. In a simulation studies, we compare the superiority among these procedures based on three contrasts.     

性别工资差异与工资歧视--基于RIF回归的分解方法

文章采用2012年中国劳动力动态调查数据，利用基于 RIF 回归的分解方法分析性别工资差异，并对各收入分位数上的性别歧视程度进行估量和分解。研究发现：随着收入分位数的提高，特征效应对性别收入差距解释的比重逐渐提高；系数效应带来的性别歧视对性别收入差距解释的比重不断下降，但系数效应依然是造成劳动力性别收入差距的主要原因。教育在消减性别收入差距上的作用减弱，而职业资格、掌握技能耗时、职业性别隔离和签订劳动合同等变量则有助于缩小性别收入差距。     

Bayesian Estimation and Model Choice in Item Response Models

Item response models are essential tools for analyzing results from many educational and psychological tests. Such models are used to quantify the probability of correct response as a function of unobserved examinee ability and other parameters explaining the difficulty and the discriminatory power of the questions in the test. Some of these models also incorporate a threshold parameter for the probability of the correct response to account for the effect of guessing the correct answer in multiple choice type tests. In this article we consider fitting of such models using the Gibbs sampler. A data augmentation method to analyze a normal-ogive model incorporating a threshold guessing parameter is introduced and compared with a Metropolis-Hastings sampling method. The proposed method is an order of magnitude more efficient than the existing method. Another objective of this paper is to develop Bayesian model choice techniques for model discrimination. A predictive approach based on a variant of the Bayes factor is used and compared with another decision theoretic method which minimizes an expected loss function on the predictive space. A classical model choice technique based on a modified likelihood ratio test statistic is shown as one component of the second criterion. As a consequence the Bayesian methods proposed in this paper are contrasted with the classical approach based on the likelihood ratio test. Several examples are given to illustrate the methods.     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

Commitment to tax compliance: Timing effect on willingness to evade

Experimental and empirical literature on individual decision-making has shown a remarkable difference between planning and ongoing decisions: when asked to plan their actions, people overweight events with low probability; on the contrary, in ongoing decisions, they tend to ignore them. We report on a laboratory experiment designed to explore the presence of this decisional inconsistency in taxpayers’ behavior, by means of a commitment system for compliance. In line with the overweighting of events with small probabilities (i.e. fiscal audits), we find that planning induces the majority of people not only to adopt a mechanism of commitment to tax compliance, but also to actually comply.     

样本选择参数分位回归模型及其在工资分布分解中的应用

在工资差距分解问题中,研究者经常会遇到样本选择偏差问题,直接忽略会导致最终估计结果产生严重偏差,同时在众多工资差距分解方法中,相比于均值分解,分布分解方法更受研究者青睐。针对参数分位回归,本文首次提出可加形式与非可加形式的样本选择参数分位回归（SSPQR）模型,并基于这两类样本选择参数分位回归模型给出修正样本选择偏差后的参数分位回归工资差距分布分解方法。运用上述方法及已有的工资分布分解方法,借助CHNS2015年度城镇数据,本文研究了我国城镇男女工资差距及差距分解问题,得出以下结论：①男女工资差距主要来源是性别歧视问题;②经过样本选择偏差修正后,实际的工资差距更大,歧视问题更严重;③男女工资差距程度在不同分位点上结果不同,换句话说,我们不能简单地仅从平均水平来判断工资差距程度;④与其他已有方法计算结果比较发现,SSPQR计算的工资差距程度更大。     

理想气体微观状态数的计算及其统计性质的研究

本文借助自由粒子的量子能态分布理论,利用3n维空间球体模型,实现了对理想气体（N,V,E）系统微态数的计算,在此基础上,给出了理想气体热力学量的统计结果。     

江苏农村地区家庭结构现状及区域差异

采用问卷调查与文献分析的方法,对江苏省农村地区家庭结构的现状进行了研究,并对不同地区家庭结构现状的差异及原因进行了分析.分析结果表明:3～5人的中小家庭所占比重最大;家庭类型以核心家庭和主干家庭为主;户均人口数和家庭类型存在地区差异;经济发展水平和生育政策贯彻的力度不同是导致地区间差异的主要原因.     

国际实施最终反倾销措施统计分析：1995－2006

 本文利用WTO的统计数据，对1995－2006年间的国际实施最终反倾销措施进行了统计分析。本文分别分析了WTO时代国际实施最终反倾销措施的总体特点、国别或地区分布、产品结构、国别或地区与产品的混合分布，并在此基础上提出了值得进一步研究的问题。