中国近年来消费需求增长乏力的原因探析

消费需求增长乏力是近年来我国宏观经济面临的突出问题,这是居民消费能力、消费动力和消费环境三方面因素共同作用的结果。首先,居民收入增加与GDP增长不同步导致居民消费能力有限,而收入差距不断拉大则引起消费能力分配失衡;其次,未来收入和支出的预期不稳定、消费信贷制度滞后等在很大程度上降低了居民消费动力;最后,相关配套体制和设施不健全、与市场经济不协调的消费习惯等也都影响了消费需求的增加。     

Household structure and consumption insurance of the elderly

This paper examines the role of household formation in providing consumption insurance to the elderly. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys, raw tabulations of per adult equivalent consumption indicate that the elderly who live alone have higher levels of well-being relative to those who live with others. This is misleading, however, because the decision to live alone is clearly endogenous. The empirical estimation accounts for this endogeneity using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The results provide evidence that household formation plays a significant role in maintaining consumption levels. Without the opportunity to live with others, the welfare gap measured by the difference between per adult equivalent consumption levels of dependent and independent livers would be even larger. These findings suggest that co-residing with others effectively supplements social security, pensions, and private savings and helps the elderly to smooth consumption in old age.

Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

The Impact of Items and Anchors on Parent–Child Reports of Problem Behavior

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that parent and child reports of child behavior and emotional functioning often do not agree in terms of symptom severity or even symptom presence. Given the potential clinical impact that discrepant reports may have on the therapeutic process, a significant amount of research has addressed the factors influencing this observed discrepancy. Traditionally, this research has evaluated the impact of demographic factors on mean differences and obtained correlation coefficients between parent and child reports. The current research improves upon previous research in this area in two ways. First, the current research uses parent and child measures with identical rather than similar items as is commonly found in previous research. Second, the current research moves beyond identifying demographic influences on discrepant reports by explaining observed discrepancies in terms of differences in parent and child perceptions of typical child behavior.David Carlston and Benjamin Ogles are affiliated with Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, USA.Funding for this project was provided by the Ohio Department of Mental Health.     

论大众文化消费及其特征

文化消费是现代人在物质生活得到丰富的同时进行精神状态的自我调整,充实感情和复归人性的一种重要方式。大众文化更是掀起了一股文化消费的大众化浪潮,以满足人们的娱乐消费需求,大众文化也成为大众传媒时代满足大众闲暇时间的文化消费需求的最好形式。大众文化消费有其独特的消费文化特征。     

The Effects of Spousal Health on the Decision to Smoke: Evidence on Consumption Externalities, Altruism and Learning Within the Household

Married individuals are healthier than single individuals though the reasons are not well understood. Individuals with spouses/or partners are less likely to smoke. We explore the relationship between health and marital status by analyzing three potential channels through which marriage affects smoking, i.e., consumption externalities (one spouse's smoking affects the other spouse's welfare), altruism (one spouse reduces smoking in response to the other spouse's bad health), and learning about risks of smoking from the health experience of one's spouse. We find spousal health does not affect smoking due to altruism or learning within the household but do find evidence for consumption externalities.     

顾客忠诚的驱动因素及其作用

致力于赢得顾客忠诚的企业需要对顾客忠诚的真正含义和驱动因素进行全面的把握。本文在区分顾客忠诚的内在态度取向和外在重购行为两个维度的基础上 ,对顾客忠诚的驱动因素及其作用作了较为全面深入的分析     

我国信用消费发展缓慢原因分析及对策思考

信用消费制度在某些地区和某些产品中尚未形成气候,究其原因,主要是因为我国信用消费在实施过程中存在四个方面的制约因素:信用消费环境差、信用消费风险大、尚未建立完善的个人信用制度、有关的法律和法规不健全。为尽快发展信用消费,作者提出如下对策思考:（1）加强宏观调控,改善信用消费环境;（2）建立和完善个人信用制度;（3）实现信用消费与担保、保险有机结合;（4）加强和完善信用消费的法律、政策环境。     

顾客消费情感对顾客满意感的影响

作者在广州某高校内的餐厅进行了一次实证研究,探讨顾客感觉中的服务质量、顾客情感和顾客满意感之间的关系。数据分析结果表明,顾客感觉中的软质量直接影响顾客餐后的正面情感,而顾客餐后的正面情感直接影响顾客满意感;顾客对软、硬质量的期望与服务实绩之差对顾客餐后的正面情感、顾客满意感都有显著的直接影响,顾客对软质量的期望与服务实绩之差对顾客餐后的负面情感也有显著的直接影响。此外,顾客餐前的情绪也会影响顾客餐后的情感和顾客对自己就餐经历的评估。     

新贫困视域下乡村转型的困厄与重构路径

中国社会转型的重要背景之一是全球消费社会的到来。 这使得新穷人现象日渐凸显,并成为影响甚至主导整个社会转型的核心线索。 作为新穷人的典型表现,乡村新贫困既包括在城乡二元结构下,村民难以获得以城市生活方式为参照的社会公认生活水准而引发的结构性贫困,也包括由消费欲望激发的社会心理性贫困。 由此,乡村消费转型表现为如下困境:私人消费中,个体消费认同在地和脱嵌的困境以及家庭消费规范物质化和人伦的两难;集体消费中,消费品“上移冶和“下乡冶的悖论。 为应对这些困境,必须从消费角度,破解“新穷困冶的结构性和文化困境,实行新型城镇化和新农村建设并举。