HRD in 2020: a hop-on,hop-off city tour

This article reports on the outcome of a Future Search Conference in the UK to consider human resource development (HRD) in 2020 and beyond. We firstly consider themes from the past into the present. This includes the persistence of solutions in HRD that are systematic, predictable, how apprenticeships in the UK have had to accommodate government policies to ameliorate youth unemployment and the long-standing difficulty for HRD of failing to demonstrate a return on investment (ROI) on activities. We then present four scenarios based on key questions for the future relating to value of HRD and whether this will be a future for HRD. Reponses to the questions form scenario logics which we present against the theme of city tour. Each scenario is explained against the presented logic with positive, negative, ambiguous and uncertain implications for HRD. We suggest that each scenario carries a glimpse of what might be.     

Use of a conceptual model of societal drivers of ecological change in South Florida: Implications of an ecosystem management scenario

Human-dominated ecosystems such as in South Florida's Everglades region are greatly affected by societal actions and choices, and efforts to restore degraded ecosystems must take into account the societal drivers of ecosystem change. A conceptual model of societal-ecological interactions within the region illustrates connections between major societal drivers, such as water management and land use, and ecological stressors, such as loss of habitat and nutrient loading. Using the conceptual model as an initial guide for discussion, examination of a restoration scenario for the region shows that social and economic effects from activities proposed in a restoration scenario will likely affect most sectors of South Florida. Political effects from changing land and water management practices likely will be significant, as will the physical effects of changing water structures and management practices. Conceptual models such as this can aid in the initial stages of ecosystem restoration discussions and can assist in planning for subsequent social science evaluations of specific societal impacts of actual proposed governmental restoration alternatives. In crafting restoration scenarios, local, regional, and national decision makers can use conceptual models such as this to help broaden the early considerations of how possible future changes in societal drivers, including management choices, will change ecological stressors that affect ecosystem health.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of the New York State Operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in‐place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario‐based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.     

Risk Prevention and Policy-Making in Automatic Systems

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.     

都市的兴起与空间体验的“感觉化”——都市景观中的新感觉派小说

伴随现代都市的兴起,城市化成为中国社会现代化的重要标志。都市空间重组、都市生活方式以及都市生活体验的变化促使文学艺术发生了根本性的变革。都市空间经验的感觉新奇性和感官刺激性,生成了现代都市文学"感觉化"的表达方式。作为都市空间经验的表达,新感觉派小说标志着现代意义上的中国都市文学的兴起。     

基于CPFR的分销商可替代协同补货模型

针对CPFR对多级供应链库存决策和可替代性对订货概率的约束问题,给出了考虑订单分割情况下分销商库存持有成本等五种平均成本的分销商可替代协同补货策略。采用主体的建模和仿真(ABMS)方法,构建了三种情景下基于CPFR的零售商再订货点和分销商再订货点之间的协同补货模型,分析了分销商可替代性对协同补货的影响。采用REPAST模拟软件对基于ABMS模型建立的目标函数进行了数值仿真分析,其结果表明所构建的模型是有效的。     

基于失效情景的应急设施选址评估指标体系与模型

突发事件具有巨大的破坏性、不确定性,应急设施有可能失效,本文研究基于失效情景的应急设施选址评估指标体系与评估模型。首先基于定义的失效情景研究应急设施选址评估指标。构建全局性、可靠性、时效性、均衡性、经济性评估指标。可靠性作为重要评估指标有助于提高应急设施对需求区域的物资保障程度,保证系统的稳定性,采用多重覆盖率刻画。然后,设计具有不同侧重评估目标的一般情景评估指标体系、设施失效情景评估指标体系以及多区域情景评估指标体系。最后,由于应急设施选址评估具有多影响因素特征,涉及输入和输出多个指标的测度,选取处理多输入\多输出问题具有优势的评估方法—数据包络法,对应急设施选址的合理性进行评估。实例验证评估指标体系的实用性和有效性。     

Imagined past,present and futures in Murray–Darling Basin communities

Over the past three decades, irrigation-dependent rural communities in Australia's Murray–Darling Basin have experienced profound economic, social and environmental changes, which they are attempting to accommodate through local government policy. As a contribution to participatory policy design research, in consultation with local governments we carried out focus groups to explore diversity of individuals’ imagined past and present in two rural communities. This was followed by group development of a diverse range of future scenarios and agreement to three likely scenarios. The research identified presence or absence of three underlying themes – irrigation, innovation and inflow of people – that plausibly drive change in these rural communities. These themes are likely to be common to many rural communities that have depended on irrigated agriculture. They provide an example of participatory policy-making, as distinct from the historically employed top-down policy development that has occurred in the Murray–Darling Basin. Because of the diversity of perceptions of past, present and futures, and the ultimate adoption of business-as-usual within the final local government plans, the research emphasises the need to put effort into community deliberations to build cohesion and share ownership of the process for delivering locally nuanced community policy.     

Blood drones: using utopia as method to imagine future vital mobilities

ABSTRACT

How might we undertake life-saving vital mobilities, like moving blood, in future? Specifically, how might blood transfusion and drone technology – both war dividends – intersect? We explore four scenarios based on eclectic influences including cross-pollination between co-authors, a futures design workshop and exposure to science fiction. The scenarios are ‘ethnographic fragments’ from fictional futures, or conversely, imaginative time travel to possible futures. These are informed by and loosely correlate with established future-building scenario on the theme of carbon constraint: low-carbon society, digital lives, magic bullet technology and resource fights. Through the scenarios – Blood Bikes, HemoIkea, O Magic and Bloody Battles – we experiment with mobilizing utopia and dystopia as method to theorize vital mobilities. This experimental approach raises questions about possible and preferable futures of societal blood circulation and provokes a wider cultural imaginary surrounding blood and drone mobilities specifically, and vital mobilities generally.     

SMPD Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Human Population in China

Three scenarios of spatial distribution of human population in China are developed in the years 2010 and 2020, respectively by means of the method of surface modeling of population distribution (SMPD). Each one of the SMPD scenarios is defined as a plausible alternative future under particular assumptions of elevation, water system, net primary productivity (NPP), urbanization, transport infrastructure development, and population growth. The SMPD scenarios show that if population could freely migrate within the whole China, the balanced ratios of population in the western region, the middle region and the eastern region to total population in the whole China would be 16%, 33% and 52%, respectively.