Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

人工智能辅助地方立法的应用与规制

我国地方立法权随着2015年《立法法》的修改扩至所有设区的市，随之掀起地方立法热潮。但目前地方立法的质量普遍不高，存在诸多问题，人工智能技术的应用能为地方立法开辟新路径。基于互联网及大数据的人工智能，能被应用于资料检索、立项论证、立法公开与意见征集、辅助草案起草、立法后评估与备案审查。与此同时，当人工智能被应用于地方立法工作时，需要确立“辅助原则”，规范人工智能地方立法程序的选用标准，限制人工智能地方立法程序的算法，以此来规制人工智能带来的不利影响。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

仲裁协议中意思自治原则初探

仲裁是一种重要的纠纷解决方式 ,带有“准司法”的性质。本文认为 ,意思自治作为调整私法领域的基本原则 ,在仲裁协议中也有明显的体现。我国的仲裁立法理应对仲裁协议当事人的意思自治予以充分的尊重和保护。     

图书馆立法之我见

“依法治馆”是图书馆可持续发展的重要方面 ,文章论述了我国图书馆立法的迫切性及可行性 ;重点探讨了我国图书馆法的基本框架     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.     

论农村宅基地使用权的流转

我国农村宅基地使用权法律制度存在一定缺陷，其立法基础和标准不统一，导致现行相关法律规定相互矛盾。我国应确立完善的农村宅基地使用权登记制度，逐步建立农村宅基地有期限、有偿使用制度，在备件成熟时以立法形式规范农村宅基地使用权的流转。     

桑弘羊经济立法思想探微

西汉中期,时为掌管封建中央财政事务大臣的桑弘羊在坚持先秦法家思想的基础上,先后推行和提出了大力发展官商,打击私商,实施盐铁专卖,均输平准等一系列的经济立法措施和财政政策,它是汉王朝社会经济方式由自由放任转向国家干预控制的重要转折,其思想对加强封建中央财政管理,充实封建国家财政收入和缓解社会财政危机发挥了重要的作用,其许多首创的理论和实践被后代各封建王朝的理财大臣看作是可望不可及的成功的财政典型,且为当时世界上不少国家所推崇和采用。研究这一中国古代法制史上的重要成果,对思考我们现实社会财政经济的改革发展有宝贵的借鉴意义。     

媒介版图与生态意识

倡导媒介的版图与生态意识,是基于当前国内大众传媒迅猛发展的背景,意在强调在共时空状态下,不同类型不同性质的媒介制品,或者不同类型不同定位的媒介机构有机配置与组合,也就是构建一个富有生机的多样性的媒介生态。在很大程度上,媒介是以整体的舍力而非单一的形式对人实施具体的影响,此项倡导的必要性由此可见一斑。媒介的生态与版图意识还可以帮助梳理、调整当前媒介设置与媒介批评中出现的一些新现象新问题,这正是其紧迫性之所在。     

清末商事立法评述

清末统治者为了摆脱困境、挽救危机,使其统治获得一个稳固有力的经济基础,在商业领域,改变了传统的重农抑商政策,进行了一系列商事立法.实际上较多地仿效了日本1899年的商法模式。其唯一的政治目的就是力求度过危机,重固统治。清末的商事立法与西方资本主义商法貌合神离,它根本不可能冲破封建的羁绊,将中国引上资本主义轨道。