Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

考虑属性关联的两阶段获胜者确定模型

研究了多属性逆向拍卖的获胜者确定问题。考虑属性之间的两两关联，以定义在2-可加模糊测度上的Choquet积分表达拍卖人的偏好，其中模糊测度的值由拍卖人提供的偏好信息推测得出。由于一般情况下与偏好信息一致的模糊测度取值并不唯一，考虑所有一致的评分函数提出了两阶段获胜者确定方法。首先采用线性规划挑选出在任意评分函数下可能获胜的报价，再通过混合整数规划确定一个与所有一致的评分函数的评价结果最为接近的报价排序，以得分最高者为稳健获胜报价。仿真实验表明，大量的报价为不可能获胜报价，说明了在第一阶段进行筛选的必要性。与现有方法的比较表明了该方法的有效性，且在拍卖轮数较大、报价数目较多时，该方法在计算效率上更有优势。     

试析“秘书问题”的本质及解决路径

“秘书问题”是20世纪90年代出现的一个具有特殊含义的词语，主要指存在于部分秘书身上的晋升快、越权干政、贪污腐败和领导权力掮客等负面现象。其实“秘书问题”与领导问题息息相关，与领导权力寻租、权力失控有密切的关系。要解决“秘书问题”，可从加强领导权力制约和运行监管、健全秘书使用监管机制、培育秘书信念道德三条途径入手，关键是有效制约领导权力。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

甘肃保安族教育发展中存在的问题及对策

通过对甘肃省积石山县保安族教育现状的调查 ,从落后的思想观念、传统的生产方式、经济落后、民族教育优惠政策不到位等方面 ,分析了保安族教育存在的基础教育薄弱、适龄儿童入学率低、教师数量少、教育与经济社会发展相脱节等问题及原因 ,并有针对性地提出了在西部大开发中发展保安族教育时应转变观念、发展职业技术教育和成人教育、抓好师资队伍建设等思路和对策     

不动产物权变动登记外的公示方式

按现有立法,不动产物权变动的公示方式均是登记。但立法上却有不登记的例外,实践中也有这种需要。如果法律上能够明确,在一定条件下,不动产的物权变动可以以登记外的公示方式存在,它对于保障交易安全、提高交易效率具有较强的现实意义。为了减少负面效应——实施这种公示方式可能出现的问题,如二重买卖、重复抵押等,可采取相应的措施予以解决。     

我国城镇养老保险存在的问题及对策探析

文章认为 ,我国城镇养老保险虽取得了很大的成绩 ,但还存在着诸多问题 ,作者对这些问题进行探讨和分析 ,并提出了切实可行的解决对策     

毛泽东反封建思想论纲

毛泽东的反封建思想是毛泽东思想的重要组成部分 ,它由革命主题论、反封建核心论、反封建根本问题论及文化革命论等内容组成。毛泽东的反封建思想是中国民主革命及新中国前 2 8年反封建斗争实践的指导思想。但是 ,我们还应该看到 ,毛泽东的反封建思想并没有形成一个独立发展的完整思想体系 ,他长于对物质制度层面封建主义的批判 ,而对思想意识层面封建主义的批判则严重不足。这构成了整个毛泽东思想科学体系的严重不足。     

我国网络金融的发展现状与监管思路

继金融深化、金融自由化、金融国际化之后,金融网络化的问题再次成为关注的焦点。本文回顾了网络金融的发展态势及其可能对传统金融产业产生的深刻影响,对我国网络金融在发展过程中存在的主要问题进行了深入分析,在此基础上对如何加强金融监管以促进我国网络金融的健康发展提出了积极的对策建议。     

CELEBRATING HETEROGENEITY?: A survey of female ICT professionals in England

This paper introduces key findings from a large-scale, online survey of women in the ICT industry across England undertaken between October 2004 and October 2005. Placed in a theoretical framework which draws on critical perspectives from within information systems (IS), and the sociology of gender and of technology, the authors examine some of the issues faced by female ICT professionals. The context for this paper is the ongoing under-representation of women in the ICT industry in England, and the difficulties that the industry is having retaining women, particularly at senior levels. Data are presented on the demographic composition of women in the ICT industry in England. In addition the authors focus on their management of domestic and caring responsibilities, including changes in working practices they have experienced as a result of these responsibilities. These data are particularly pertinent given current government and industry debates regarding the 'work-life balance' and 'flexible working' in the ICT industry, partially as a response to the need for a more diverse ICT workforce. Alongside information on the career histories of female ICT professionals, the authors review their perceptions of pay and reward packages, working environments, the skills they hold, and the recognition they may or may not receive in their current posts. They present reports of a 'long-hours' and 'presenteeism' culture in the ICT industry, and the existence of gendered informal networks in ICT. They also examine female ICT professionals' perceptions of the current and future-possible image of the industry. The findings highlight the continued masculinization of ICT work, and some of the difficulties faced by women working in what remain statistically and symbolically male-dominated environments.