货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑与分析框架

人工智能作为社会发展和技术创新的产物,已经成为新一轮科技创新和产业变革的核心驱动力,正在对世界经济、社会进步和人民生活产生极其深刻的影响。人工智能的商业应用会改变企业内部运作和生产经营的过程,为企业管理带来了诸多挑战和变革机遇。本文结合人工智能的特征与发展趋势,从管理对象、管理属性、管理决策和管理伦理四个方面对人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑进行了梳理,得出如下推论:第一,人工智能时代,被管理者将出现越来越多的"人工智能员工",以"社会人"为中心的管理理论和管理手段的适用性降低,如何管理"人工智能员工"以及协调人类员工与智能机器人的关系将对管理者提出挑战;第二,人工智能时代,管理属性不仅包括管理理论的科学性、管理实践的艺术性,还包括管理过程的技术性;第三,人工智能时代,将出现一批优秀的技术管理者,此时,技术管理者指的不是管理技术的人,而是掌握智能技术的管理者;第四,人工智能时代,管理者的决策环境得到优化,管理活动中的决策准则将由"满意决策"过渡为"最优决策";第五,人工智能时代,管理手段的智能化发展可能会加剧管理效率和管理伦理的冲突,管理者必须提升管理道德,经营过程中强化社会责任的履行;第六,随着人工智能技术发展,政府、社会团体和行业协会有必要从政策、法律与行业标准等多个方面构建人工智能发展伦理的多层次约束机制。     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

中国员工企业伦理态度调查及分析

随着中国市场经济的发展,各种企业丑闻的频发引起业界广泛关注,公司治理越来越受到重视。已有的研究表明,员工企业伦理态度关乎员工承诺度和企业竞争力。本文依据个人层次研究理论,采用实证分析方法,选择国内6家企业的员工为调研对象,沿用国外企业伦理个体层次研究中广泛使用的量表"Attitude Towards Business Ethics Questionnaire"(ATBEQ)即企业伦理态度量表,考察当代中国企业员工对企业伦理态度的看法;另外,也分析了不同的工作年限,性别,学历,户口等因素下的企业员工伦理态度差异。调查结果显示:中国员工的企业伦理观存在困惑;大部分中国员工有企业利益相关者意识;教育对企业员工伦理态度存在显著影响。     

Squashed dreams and rare breeds: ableism and the arbiters of life and death

The week beginning 29 June 2015 is not just historic for the closure of the Independent Living Fund in the United Kingdom, but for me was the week they decided that my life is not worth investing in; they being NHS England, NICE and, with them, the Department of Health. They chose not to support the enzyme replacement therapy that has been not only keeping me alive, but giving me a quality of life – enabling me to return to finish my Disability Studies PhD exploring how Christian leaders explain disability, where ethics have become the main topic, and to rebuild my career – or so I thought.     

Impact of older adults' mobility and social participation on life satisfaction in South Korea

South Korea has been experiencing rapid population aging. In an aging society, the need for healthy lives is greater. Two of the fundamental factors to enable independent and active life for the elderly are mobility and social participation. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between older adults’ mobility, social participation, and quality of life in South Korea. We used data from the 2017 National Survey of Older Koreans conducted by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and applied hierarchical regression. The major finding was that older adults’ mobility had a positive impact on their life satisfaction. After controlling for older adults’ mobility, social participation was positively associated with life satisfaction regardless of the place of residence. The findings of this study not only make a valuable contribution to further research on mobility and social participation but also provide new insight into improving older adults’ quality of life.     

The relationship between lifetime health trajectories and socioeconomic attainment in middle age

A large literature demonstrates the direct and indirect influence of health on socioeconomic attainment, and reveals the ways in which health and socioeconomic background simultaneously and dynamically affect opportunities for attainment and mobility. Despite an increasing understanding of the effects of health on social processes, research to date remains limited in its conceptualization and measurement of the temporal dimensions of health, especially in the presence of socioeconomic circumstances that covary with health over time. Guided by life course theory, we use data from the British National Child Development Study, an ongoing panel study of a cohort born in 1958, to examine the association between lifetime health trajectories and socioeconomic attainment in middle age. We apply finite mixture modeling to identify distinct trajectories of health that simultaneously account for timing, duration and stability. Moreover, we employ propensity score weighting models to account for the presence of time-varying socioeconomic factors in estimating the impact of health trajectories. We find that, when poor health is limited to the childhood years, the disadvantage in socioeconomic attainment relative to being continuously healthy is either insignificant or largely explained by time-varying socioeconomic confounders. The socioeconomic impact of continuously deteriorating health over the life course is more persistent, however. Our results suggest that accounting for the timing, duration and stability of poor health throughout both childhood and adulthood is important for understanding how health works to produce social stratification. In addition, the findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between confounding and mediating effects of time-varying socioeconomic circumstances.     

融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法研究

挖掘特定产品的需求模式无法从整体掌握该类产品的市场特征；短生命周期体验品因缺乏历史销售数据，并且销售总量波动性极大，尤其需要从整体掌握销售总量与产品属性间关系的需求特征规律，但又难以挖掘，亟待提出适用于该类产品的需求特征模式挖掘方法。基于按销售总量分区后各区的需求特征的规律性，提出了一种按销售总量分区、以已有产品介绍集和销售总量为源信息、适用于新产品开发前使用、融合内容分析和关联分析的短生命周期体验品需求特征模式挖掘方法。该方法包括基于内容分析法的产品属性挖掘方法和基于关联分析的产品属性关系模式挖掘方法。前者可以得到较全面的产品属性；后者能够构建不同销售总量区间内产品集的属性关系模式，得到各区间的产品属性关系网，获得高销售总量区间具备，但中、低区间不具备的属性关系模式，从而获得需求特征模式。通过不断更新产品介绍集和销售总量并迭代挖掘，该方法能够动态挖掘需求特征模式。最后利用2013至2016年国产犯罪和爱情类电影数据验证了该方法的可行性，并得到了这两类电影的产品属性及近年的需求特征模式，可用于指导这两类电影的创作。     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

精神回溯与意象精研的本质书写--林雪诗歌评论

林雪是当代汉语诗歌的重要诗人，她“在心为志，发言为诗”，诗风大气沉郁。她近期的诗歌，情怀与思辨相互倚重、酵化，介入生活与提炼心性同步发力，题材多样，手法多变，情感收放自如，气韵放达从容。她对现实的观照，对时空的架构，对存在的开掘，都呈现出一种新的气象。她自觉地从先期女性主义诗写中觉醒，到如今的清澈中隐显尘世的味蕾，对生活细节和感念触觉的精妙镂刻，以及对世道人心的专注和细致打量。