Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.     

Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries

This paper aims to determine, by means of regression analysis, which exported product groups, categorized according to their technological intensity, have the greatest effect on the movements in the volume of GDP p/c of the Western Balkan Countries (WBCs). The analysis, based on statistical-econometric methodology, includes 16 commodity groups per each WBC (Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; FYR Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia). The data were collected and presented in accordance with the HS4 system classification, which is also used for development of the ITC’s Trade Map. The results of the analysis show that those commodity groups produced by medium-low and low technology industries have the greatest effect on the change in the volume of GDP p/c in all WBCs in the period 2005–2015.     

Frequency domain bootstrap for ratio statistics under long-range dependence

A frequency domain bootstrap (FDB) is a common technique to apply Efron’s independent and identically distributed resampling technique (Efron, 1979) to periodogram ordinates – especially normalized periodogram ordinates – by using spectral density estimates. The FDB method is applicable to several classes of statistics, such as estimators of the normalized spectral mean, the autocorrelation (but not autocovariance), the normalized spectral density function, and Whittle parameters. While this FDB method has been extensively studied with respect to short-range dependent time processes, there is a dearth of research on its use with long-range dependent time processes. Therefore, we propose an FDB methodology for ratio statistics under long-range dependence, using semi- and nonparametric spectral density estimates as a normalizing factor. It is shown that the FDB approximation allows for valid distribution estimation for a broad class of stationary, long-range (or short-range) dependent linear processes, without any stringent assumptions on the distribution of the underlying process. The results of a large simulation study show that the FDB approximation using a semi- or nonparametric spectral density estimator is often robust for various values of a long-memory parameter reflecting magnitude of dependence. We apply the proposed procedure to two data examples.     

自由的陷阱：《A & P》中的资本主义文化矛盾

约翰·厄普代克的短篇小说《A & P》以艺术的手法,通过对普通民众、Sammy 和泳装少女在 A & P 商场中“自由”行为的描述,揭示了资本主义文化矛盾的本质,以及资本主义社会中,人们自由的丧失及对自由的追求,揭露了20世纪60年代美国社会所鼓吹的自由的本质,即自由的陷阱。     

后现象学思想解惑--唐·伊德技术哲学的实用主义与解释学维度

用胡塞尔先验现象学的立场来理解作为技术哲学的后现象学,这是对唐·伊德思想的一种误解。由于在悬置和变更等基本概念上与胡塞尔现象学出入甚大,后现象学只能算是一种修正主义的现象学;在哲学观和技术观上,后现象学更多地是汲取了杜威实用主义的观点;利科的解释学及对文本概念的广义理解,决定了后现象学必然是一种以探究人工物的意义为旨归的物的解释学。在理解伊德技术哲学时,实用主义和解释学是两个重要、但被忽略的维度。     

高校体育专业足球课能力教学模式的构建研究——以重庆文理学院为例

体育运动的生活化、社会化发展趋势对体育工作者的运动能力、训练能力、竞赛组织能力提出了更高的要求,需要体育工作者扮演教师、教练、竞赛组织、社会体育工作者等多重角色。为适应多元化社会需求培育新人才,探索体育专业足球课教学模式的改革,文章运用文献资料、逻辑推理等研究方法,结合当前足球课教学模式的优缺点,得出能力教学模式是足球课程改革的必然选择。足球课能力教学模式的构建应该以“一个中心、两个基本点、三大原则、四种教法”为途径,能力教学模式的构建可以调动学生的积极性、优化学生学习氛围、激发学生的创新精神、提高学生的综合素质。     

"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).     

明代中后期的撒里畏兀儿

从嘉靖七年（１５２８年）明朝兵部尚书王琼总制三边、安辑东迁后的 撒里畏兀儿诸部,至明、清之交。这一时期,撒里畏兀儿失去了自"黄头田纥"以 来的左右一方的相对独立局面,因受制于人而动荡不安、艰难求生,对今日裕固 族社会产生了重大影响。     

神奇母题的历史根源

关于民间口头流传的神奇幻想故事同原始文化、传统宗教信仰之间的关联 ,素为中外学人所关注。本文作为“中国民间故事类型与传承研究”这个重大课题的一个侧面 ,对此做出了较有新意的阐释     

试论伦理思想在伊斯兰教中的核心地位

伊斯兰教是以道德为本的宗教。在伊斯兰教中 ,宗教信仰是基础 ,伦理道德是核心。离开信仰 ,道德无以寄托 ;离开道德 ,信仰无以落实。信仰之路也就是道德完善之路 ,信仰的最高境界也就是道德的至境。无论是伊斯兰兴教的出发点、最终目的 ,还是伊斯兰教的主旨 ,都说明伦理道德在伊斯兰教中居于核心地位。阐明伦理道德在伊斯兰教中的地位 ,对于我们正确理解伊斯兰教的真谛具有积极意义。