人口老龄化与养老保障政策应对研究——基于多元社会政策建构视野

人口老龄化趋势是我国人口结构转变的一个突出现象。人口老龄化问题的突现,势必对养老保障压力提出了新的挑战,同时也会影响国家对养老政策的调整。本文基于＂人口年龄结构—国民经济因素—社会因素—养老政策＂综合分析模型,提出了养老保障政策分析的框架。本文以人口结构转变为切入点,描述了人口老龄化趋势,以及由此引发的国家系统养老保障以及公民社会养老保障挑战。为应对这些挑战,本文基于综合分析模型和现代国家治理结构特点,提出了相应的应对策略。本文认为,只有整体性福利制度构建,才能确保在国民经济发展、人口老龄化趋势与社会稳定之间取得动态平衡。     

On changes in the age composition of the population and policy options for population planning

This analysis, based on 1978 data from official household registers, suggests that the 1983-2000 period will be critical for China's efforts to control population growth. If declines in the fertility rate are maintained, the possibility of stabilizing China's population at 800-900 million in the next century is feasible. If the population is to be kept under 1.2 billion by the year 2000, the general fertility rate must be lowered to 1.8 in 1985 and must decline 0.1 each 5 years thereafter until it reaches 1.5 in the year 2000. Once population growth is brought under control, it will be necessary to address consequent increases in the median age of the population. Those over 65 years of age will comprise 7.1-7.8% of the population in the year 2000, depending on whether fertility rates are low or high. The medium projection includes a population of 1.211 billion in the year 2000, approaching the peak value but allowing the fertility rate to rise slowly to guard against excessive aging of the population. The proportion of those over 65 years of age reaches a peak value of 20.2% in the year 2040. Overall, these projections suggest a "golden age" continuing until about 2020 in which the proportion of those both over 65 years and under 15 years will be rather low. The dependency ratio should begin to climb after 2020, reaching a peak in 2040 and stabilizing by 2070 at a level slightly higher than that existing today in developed countries. Since a rational age composition and a suitable decrease in the proportion of dependents are essential for economic growth, future analyses should focus on the quality of the population and not just population size. As long as birth rates continue to fall, the proportion of the dependent population will also fall and have a beneficial effect on China's economic development.     

Providing social security in a context of change: Experience and challenges in Latin America

Over the past two decades Latin America has experienced major demographic, economic and social changes. The trend towards accelerated ageing of the population in most countries, together with the financial restrictions faced by social protection systems, has brought sweeping changes in pension programmes. The new demographic and labour context presents challenges for these new programmes which, unless they make the necessary adaptations, will definitely be unable to attain their stated objective of providing universal coverage and eliminating poverty in old age. This article offers a general discussion of the processes that the region is undergoing, as well as the limitations and challenges imposed by existing welfare systems. Finally, it examines the options available to retain the objective of universal coverage and thus ensure the economic needs of the elderly population.     

Long-term Care in China: Issues and Prospects

One of the major socioeconomic challenges China faces is the rapid aging of its population. China is now an aging society, even though it is still regarded as a middle-income economy. Coupled with the market-driven reform of social services and rapid erosion of family support, the provision of affordable and accessible social care services to older people has already become an urgent issue for the government to address. Looking into the future, the formulation of a sustainable position on long-term care (LTC) will increasingly become the major focus of social policy. This article sets out the background to the demographic shifts resulting in the emerging need for LTC in China. It analyzes the issues facing LTC services and reviews their prospects, including the structure, operation, financing, and interfacing of residential and community-based home care services.     

The Coming of an Aged Society in Taiwan: Issues and Policies

For most advanced industrialized countries, an aging society has been a national issue since the 1970s. However, Taiwan was not aware of this issue until 1993, the year when the old‐age population reached 7.0%. As an aging nation under the definition of the United Nations, the Taiwanese government began to pay more attention to the aging population, and executed several policies in response to this demographic transition. First, this article examines Taiwan’s demographic transition from an aging society to an aged society, and its impacts. Second, it demonstrates the responses of Taiwan to the coming of an aged society and explores crucial issues that Taiwanese society is facing.     

The work prospects of older employees: An international comparison

The labour markets in the European Community countries are faced with a massive change in the structural composition of employee age groups. This article examines the employment prospects for older persons in selected European countries. The first, introductory section gives a quantitative comparison of existing levels of employment of older persons. This group is defined on the basis of the Eurostat labour force statistics; it comprises those aged over 50 but under 65. The second section aims to give an overall picture of the different types of early pension and the different methods by which older employees were taken off the labour market in the past. In the 1970s and 1980s the countries of Europe took numerous measures to bring about early cessation of work and early pensions for older persons, in order to reduce the labour surplus at a time when unemployment was increasing. In future, however, employee age structures will develop on opposite lines (third section): demographic change will affect pensions policy financially (extending working life rather than pensioning workers off). The change in company employee age structures will begin in the 1990s. This new impending trend calls for longer-term adjustments in employment policies: these will be considered in the fourth, concluding section of the article.     

Long-run macroeconomic consequences of Taiwan's aging labor force: an analysis of policy options

Taiwan is poised to become a super-aged society. We found there exist long-run relationships involving key macroeconomic variables and population age shares. The findings indicate that Taiwan's aggregate production exhibits increasing returns to scale where the quality of labor input is the single most important source of growth. The out-of-sample forecast plots envisage that Taiwan's aging labor force does not necessarily decelerate real GDP growth for at least a decade or more. In particular, there are viable policy measures to curb labor shortages due to the shift in the age structure of the labor force caused by population aging.     

面向2030:全球海洋经济发展的影响因素、趋势及对策建议

“保护和可持续利用海洋和海洋资源以促进可持续发展”被写入联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》,全球海洋经济的可持续发展已成为国际社会共同关注的热点问题之一,部分国际组织和沿海国家已率先启动了相关研究工作。本文总结了海洋经济的范畴及全球研究进展,提出了影响2030年全球海洋经济发展的七个主要因素,即全球经济的增长前景、技术创新与进步、人口增长及城镇化和老龄化问题、世界能源结构变化、地缘政治风险、气候变化与海洋的相互作用和海洋经济政策的实施;分析了未来全球海洋产业的发展趋势;最后提出了促进我国海洋经济可持续发展的五点对策建议。     

Demographic Transition

Some forecasts based on possible trends in population in Russia suggest that it may be possible to achieve stabilization of the population. However, the actual demographic situation and the conditions in Russian society raise doubt about this, and about the possibility of sustaining and enhancing the quality of an aging and declining population. Russia's future and the possibilities for successful modernization of the economy and its transition to an innovative path of development depend on the quality and structure of the population.     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China

What are the current and future trends in age structure in China as it relates to labor force and retirement? And, what is the impact of the one-child policy on these trends? A trend analysis identifies that as the parents of the one-child family age, China will have an older population, proportionately, with a smaller middle-aged population to support them in the traditional manner, unlike previous generations. A burden will be placed on the working age population as the one-child generation will have to help support two parents if single, and four parents if married, particularly in urban areas. This will also impact rural areas where formal systems of elderly support are not yet fully developed. In terms of labor resources, the elderly may be better supported in old age if they stay in the labor force for a longer period. However, younger workers need employment, while the old must work to offset the lack of formal support, and the potential decline in intergenerational family support due to the changing age-structure. The challenge facing policy-makers is to bring about a balance between employment patterns and support between generations.     

人口老龄化及其对城市养老保障发展的影响——以城市养老保障为研究对象

人口老龄化是关系到社会生产和经济发展的重大问题之一,也关联着社会的各个单细胞——家庭模式和伦理文化体系发生新的变化。我国老年人口的绝对量和人口老龄化的速度在世界居前位。人口老龄化将带来一系列社会问题,健全和发展社会养老保障是保证社会安宁和解决老有所养的重要举措。本文主要从分析人口老龄的特点及发展趋势的这一角度切入,针对这个制度本身在运行过程中出现诸多的问题,对完善中国城市养老保障提出几点建议。     

2015：中国人口学研究回顾和述评

2015年,中国人口学在诸多领域取得了较有影响力的研究成果。通过对本年度国内主要人口学核心期刊《人口研究》《中国人口科学》《人口与经济》《人口学刊》《人口与发展》《西北人口》《南方人口》以及人大复印资料《人口学》等进行文献检索,梳理相关的代表性文献,对中国人口学研究重点关注的人口生育政策、老龄化与老年健康、人口流动和城镇化、人口与经济、人口统计与方法等若干领域以及婚姻家庭等相关主题进行了系统回顾与评述。     

Do young generations save for retirement? Ensuring financial security of Gen Z and Gen Y

Concerns about the population aging and global trends to shift more responsibility for future retirement from the state to the individual need policy planning to increase youth's savings for retirement. The study aims to identify behavioral, financial, demographic, and educational determinants of savings for retirement in two groups of young adults with reference to people aged 50–60. The binary logit model and pairwise comparison results showed that the probability of saving for retirement increases with age and responsibility fosters saving behavior among young adults. The observed differences allow the formulation of policy recommendations adapted to the preferences of generations Z and Y.     

Population ecology and niche seeking in the development of gay and lesbian rights groups

This paper explores the formation of groups within the framework of the population ecology literature. Specifically, I argue that newly formed groups’ target membership bases and policy agendas will become more focused as the density of interest groups in a population increases, though groups will not necessarily continue this focused trend once the density of the population has reached its upper limits. To test this theory, I utilize Nownes’ [Nownes, A. J. (2004). The population ecology of interest group formation: Mobilizing for gay and lesbian rights in the United States, 1950–1998. British Journal of Political Science, 34, 49–67] dataset on the population ecology of gay and lesbian rights groups and a typology of groups that Bosso [Bosso, C. J. (2005). Environment, Inc.: From Grassroots to Beltway. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas] used in explaining the focus of environmental rights groups. I find that as the population of gay and lesbian groups became more dense, the groups that formed tended to narrow down their potential membership populations. However, the results were different for a newly formed group's policy agenda. While niche seeking occurred during the rapid growth of groups in the 1970s and the early 1980s, groups that formed after growth leveled off in the mid-1980s balanced their agendas between being too broad and too narrow. This important finding indicates that niche seeking does not always occur in very dense interest populations.     

Introduction: Beyond the Great Divergence

Was today’s alternative model of development universal in the eighteenth century? By comparing what was then mainstream economic development with today’s alternative model, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (hereafter, The Great Divergence) reminds us that development has many possibilities. Like many of us who are familiar with the classic research models for the origins of Western European capitalism, Pomeranz, on encountering evidence betraying the paucity of advocates for the “European miracle” and the backwardness of early modern England and Europe, was irresistibly impelled to reassess this period. What he found was a decline in environmental resources relative to the growing population in the preindustrial world—an issue that can hardly be said to be economic; rather, for the moment, let us acknowledge it as arising from the demand for plant and animal resources. The Great Divergence asserts that in the eighteenth century, when timber had not yet been completely replaced by coal, four major products of the land—food, fuel, fiber and building materials—were facing increasing demographic pressure, which people in Europe, especially England, and in China, especially the lower Yangzi Delta (Jiangnan), and even in Japan and India, were all trying to deal with, and to which they all responded by choosing a labor–intensive path. This raised output and satisfied the environmental resource needs of a growing population. In the end, however, The Great Divergence lets the cat out of the bag, holding that environmental pressures were considerably relieved in England in the mid- to late eighteenth century, due to the industrial revolution sparked by its coal and iron and the abundant supply of land-intensive products imported from the New World; England then abandoned its labor-intensive path and took the road of industrialization, in which capital and labor made up for shortage of land. With the advent of the industrial revolution, Pomeranz’ doubts about Eurocentrism automatically come to an end; the nineteenth century becomes a dividing wall. The concept of development that takes environmental resources—including land—as existing merely for demand and consumption takes its fixed form in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the stage in which economic development reigned supreme and industrialization proceeded through plunder and rapine.     

人口老龄化对中国经济的长期影响

生育率迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使中国人口正在经历快速的老龄化。本文试图对中国人口老龄化的长期经济影响做出分析,依次讨论人口老龄化对劳动力供需关系和就业率、国内消费需求、社会保障体制和公共财政、人口城乡迁移和城市化、中国经济在国际市场的比较优势和产业结构变迁的可能影响。在此基础上,作者提出逐步放宽生育控制政策、把人口政策的重点放到提高人口素质上、推迟法定退休年龄和深化对城乡社会保障体制的改革,提高社会保障的公平性和效率等政策建议。     

Predictors of Longitudinal Growth in Inhibitory Control in Early Childhood

In the current study, we examined latent growth in 731 young children's inhibitory control from the ages of two to four years, and whether demographic characteristics or parenting behaviors were related to initial levels and growth in inhibitory control. As part of an ongoing longitudinal evaluation of the family check‐up, children's inhibitory control was assessed yearly at the ages of two to four years. Inhibitory control was initially low and increased linearly to the age of four years. High levels of harsh parenting and male gender were associated with low initial status in inhibitory control. High levels of parental positive behavior support were associated with faster growth. Extreme family poverty and African‐American ethnicity were also associated with slower growth. The results highlight parenting as a target for early interventions in contexts of high socioeconomic risk.     

论养老机构中社会工作的介入——基于南通市养老机构的实证调查

随着我国人口老龄化趋势的日益加剧,养老问题逐渐成为一大社会问题,而且影响着经济社会的持续快速发展。但在当前形势下,居家养老模式已经受到现代社会发展的严重冲击和挑战,社区养老模式才刚刚起步,各种机制设施还有待进一步健全、完善。在新旧模式的转换过渡中,机构养老便成为解决养老问题的重要力量。本文通过对南通市养老机构的实证调查,发现了南通市机构养老存在的一些问题,提出了在养老机构中介入社会工作的设想。