Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

农村义务教育阶段培育和践行社会主义核心价值观研究

农村义务教育在我国义务教育体系中占有重要地位,特别是对于拥有9亿多农村人口的我国来说,农村义务教育关系到每一个农村家庭子女的成长和成才,关系到农村经济振兴战略,更关系到国家和民族的未来。对农村义务教育阶段培育和践行社会主义核心价值观的必要性以及在这一过程中存在的困境进行深入研究,并据此提出相关的应对策略,能够使农村义务教育在社会主义核心价值观的指引下持续、快速、全面、健康地发展。     

Cooperative innovation through a talent management pool: A qualitative study on coopetition in healthcare

In recent years, the Dutch healthcare sector has been confronted with increased competition. Not only are financial resources scarce, Dutch hospitals also need to compete with other hospitals in the same geographic area to attract and retain talented employees due to considerable labour shortages. However, four hospitals operating in the same region are cooperating to cope with these shortages by developing a joint Talent Management Pool. ‘Coopetiton’ is a concept used for simultaneous cooperation and competition. In this paper, a case study is performed in order to enhance our understanding of coopetition. Among other things, the findings suggest that perceptions of organizational actors on competition differ and might hinder cooperative innovation with competitors, while perceived shared problems and resource constraints stimulate coopetition. We reflect on the current coopetition literature in light of the research findings, which have implications for future research on this topic.     

Capturing the broader picture of value co-creation management

The interactional, interdependent, and dynamic nature of value co-creation has made value management in business relationships a particularly challenging issue for both academicians and practitioners. In addition, studies on this topic have mostly focused on managing value co-creation in isolation from the wider relational context without completely capturing the influence of other value processes on value co-creation. This paper examines the broader picture of value co-creation management by providing a model based on interlinked value processes, namely, value communication, value appropriation, value measurement, and value representation. We adopted a qualitative approach based on 86 interviews with managers of both customer and supplier companies, which operated in different industries. Results showed that the management of value co-creation implies considering complex patterns of interconnections with other value processes. In particular, the study will shed light on the centrality of value appropriation to co-create value and on the importance of value representation to coordinate ideas and enable future co-creation opportunities.     

中国员工企业伦理态度调查及分析

随着中国市场经济的发展,各种企业丑闻的频发引起业界广泛关注,公司治理越来越受到重视。已有的研究表明,员工企业伦理态度关乎员工承诺度和企业竞争力。本文依据个人层次研究理论,采用实证分析方法,选择国内6家企业的员工为调研对象,沿用国外企业伦理个体层次研究中广泛使用的量表"Attitude Towards Business Ethics Questionnaire"(ATBEQ)即企业伦理态度量表,考察当代中国企业员工对企业伦理态度的看法;另外,也分析了不同的工作年限,性别,学历,户口等因素下的企业员工伦理态度差异。调查结果显示:中国员工的企业伦理观存在困惑;大部分中国员工有企业利益相关者意识;教育对企业员工伦理态度存在显著影响。     

Identity and integration: The roles of relationship and retention in nonprofit mergers

Prior research suggests that nonprofits are flexible and possess multiple identities, although we know less about how transformative changes, such as mergers, shape nonprofit identity. This qualitative study draws upon in‐depth interviews from 13 nonprofit merger cases to explore factors that influence postmerger identity and integration. In particular, we focus on the roles of organizational similarity and relationships, program and personnel retention, and rebranding. Ultimately, we derive a typology of postmerger integration in nonprofits and suggest that postmerger identity may be classified in terms of absorption, preservation, or creation. Implications for nonprofit leaders are discussed.     

Identifying the priorities for midwifery education across Australia and New Zealand: A Delphi study

ProblemIn countries where education programmes are assessed as meeting international standards there is limited knowledge about the challenges facing midwifery education.Background/aimThe positive impact of quality midwifery education on maternal and newborn health is acknowledged by the World Health Organisation. However, there is limited research identifying the issues faced in providing quality midwifery education. The aim of this study was to identify the challenges and determine priority projects to strengthen midwifery education across Australia and New Zealand.MethodsA two-round Delphi study with experts in midwifery education was undertaken.FindingsIn round one, 85 participants identified an initial 366 issues for midwifery education. Through thematic content analysis these were categorised into 89 statements reflecting five major themes: In round two, 105 midwifery experts from Australia n = 86 (79%) and New Zealand n = 23 (21%) rated the 89 statements in order of priority. Across the combined data (Australia and New Zealand) a total of 19 statements gained consensus of ≥80%.DiscussionFive priority themes were identified including; (1) enabling success of First Peoples/Māori midwifery students; (2) increasing the visibility and influence of midwifery within regulation, accreditation and university governance; (3) determining how best to deliver the clinical practicum component of programmes; (4) reviewing midwifery programmes to enhance design, content and delivery; and (5) ongoing education and support for the midwifery workforce.ConclusionIn Australia and New Zealand, it is imperative that collaborative work is undertaken to design and action identified projects addressing these priorities.     

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions

Aggressive behavior in pet dogs is a serious problem for dog owners across the globe, with bite injuries representing a serious risk to both people and other dogs. The effective management of aggressive behavior in dogs represents a challenging and controversial issue. Although positive reinforcement training methods are now considered to be the most effective and humane technique to manage the risk of aggression, punishment‐based methods continue to be used. Unfortunately, there has been little scientific study into the various factors influencing whether dog owners choose to use positive reinforcement techniques to manage aggression in their dogs. As such, current understanding of how best to encourage and support dog owners to use these methods remains extremely limited. This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential barriers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceived ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predicting future intentions and current reported use. Future interventions should focus on enhancing owner confidence in the effective use of positive reinforcement techniques across multiple scenarios, as well as helping owners manage their own emotional responses when they encounter challenging situations and setbacks.     

Comparison of labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used epidural analgesia in labour and those who did not: A prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo compare labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used versus did not use intrapartum epidural analgesia.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingTwo maternity hospitals in Ireland.PopulationA total of 1221 nulliparous women who gave birth vaginally or by emergency caesarean section.MethodsMultinomial logistic regression was used to analyse categorical outcomes, with results presented as ratios of relative risks (RRR). For dichotomous outcomes we used logistic regression, with results presented as odds ratios (OR).Main outcome measuresMode of birth, IV syntocinon use, pyrexia (≥38 °C), antibiotic treatment, first stage labour ≥10 h, second stage labour ≥2 h, blood loss (≥500 mls, ≥1000 mls), perineal trauma. Neonatal outcomes included Apgar score ≥7 at 1 min and 5 min, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, and infant feeding method.ResultsWomen using EA were more likely to require a vacuum-assisted birth (RRR 3.35, p < 0.01) or forceps-assisted birth (RRR 11.69, p < 0.01). Exposure to EA was associated with significantly greater risk of ≥10 h first (OR 6.72, p = 0.01) and ≥2 h second (OR 2.25, p < 0.01) stage labour, increased likelihood of receiving IV syntocinon (OR 9.38, p < 0.01), antibiotics (OR 2.97, p < 0.01) and a greater probability of pyrexia (OR 10.26, p < 0.01). Women who used EA were half as likely to be breastfeeding at three months postpartum (OR 0.53, p < 0.01). No differences were observed between groups in neonatal outcomes.ConclusionsOur data shows significant associations between EA use and several intrapartum outcomes.     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.