Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

四川盆地中三叠世盐盆分布与演化特征研究

四川盆地卤水分布广泛，资源丰富, 早为世人所瞩目，中三叠统雷口坡组是四川盆地最早开采天然气和盐卤的层系之一。根据盆地雷口坡组大量钻井资料研究表明，盆地雷口坡组主要成盐期分别为雷三2 期和雷四2 期，在盆地东部和南部由于受到古隆起的影响，盐岩地层已被剥蚀难以保存，现今盐岩主要分布在开江古隆起和泸州古隆起的西部以及天井山古隆起的南部（华蓥山以西—龙门山以东的川西—川中地区）。印支运动对盆地雷口坡组盐岩在平面的迁移起着十分重要的作用，根据不同时期盐岩统计数据看，两期盐盆在平面上具有向西迁移、叠加的特征，其中川中的GS1 井就钻遇了这两期的盐岩。     

川东北地区须家河组二段储层差异性分析

随着勘探程度的深入，为了扩大四川盆地天然气勘探领域、寻找新的勘探接替区，四川盆地的勘探区域由盆内逐渐向盆缘延伸。在这种背景下，川东北地区须家河组二段相继取得新的勘探成果，但在勘探开发过程中逐渐暴露了诸如区块之间气井产能差异大，储层的碎屑组分、结构及厚度、物性、孔隙结构差异明显等问题，制约了勘探开发的步伐。针对上述问题，根据岩芯观察描述、分析化验资料及测井解释成果，从沉积、成岩方面入手，对比剖析了川东北龙岗和营山地区须二段储层特征的差异性及其成因，认为远离物源区和高能水体的反复淘洗是造成储层差异性的首要因素，强烈的压实作用和多期石英加大对储层差异性起关键作用，自生绿泥石衬边胶结和长石选择性溶蚀最终决定了储层差异性。从而解释了气藏勘探开发中遇到的诸多问题，对有效指导该区的下一步勘探开发工作具有重要意义。     

国外城市机场噪声治理的多元路径及其启示

20世纪80年代以来,随着中国城市发展速度的持续提升,各级各类城市机场的建设步伐也不断加快,时至今日,机场已经成为了许多城市重要的对外交通枢纽和新的城市商业中心。但以噪声污染为重要表征的负外部性输出,在中国城市机场也呈现出蔓延之势。文章通过相关文献资料梳理发现,国外对城市机场噪声的治理一般通过机场规划、降噪技术、噪声征税、制度规制、强化绿化等多种路径展开。了解国外治理城市机场噪声的实践探索,对于我们寻求中国城市机场噪声治理的未来道路,具有重要的启示和借鉴意义。     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

On Bartlett correction of empirical likelihood for regularly spaced spatial data

Bartlett correction constitutes one of the attractive features of empirical likelihood because it enables the construction of confidence regions for parameters with improved coverage probabilities. We study the Bartlett correction of spatial frequency domain empirical likelihood (SFDEL) based on general spectral estimating functions for regularly spaced spatial data. This general formulation can be applied to testing and estimation problems in spatial analysis, for example testing covariance isotropy, testing covariance separability as well as estimating the parameters of spatial covariance models. We show that the SFDEL is Bartlett correctable. In particular, the improvement in coverage accuracies of the Bartlett‐corrected confidence regions depends on the underlying spatial structures. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 455–472; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

丹巴土司制度发展历史考证

丹巴位于“藏彝走廊”的核心区域，其对汉藏民族关系、中央政权与边疆地区的稳定均具有重要影响。自忽必烈时期开始丹巴即开始实行土司制度直至新中国成立，研究丹巴的土司制度发展历史对梳理“藏彝走廊”民族关系及社会发展历史具有重要作用。本文对丹巴土司制度的发展历史进行了考证，并对其境内的四个土司的管辖范围、权力地位进行了梳理，以期对该地区历史发展研究提供一些参考与借鉴。     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

日本红十字会参与疫情危机应对的机制及启示

新冠肺炎疫情发生后,中国社会各界积极踊跃捐赠款物,体现了中华民族“一方有难、八方支援”的大爱精神。在此次新冠肺炎疫情防控中,地方政府依循惯例,迅速指定省、市红十字会和慈善总会作为接受社会捐助的专责机构,发挥了重要作用。然而,疫情重灾区湖北、武汉的红十字会却暴露出救援物资分配不均、捐赠收取管理费等问题。本文从国际比较视野出发,选取日本红十字会为研究对象,采取政策文本分析等研究方法,考察日本红十字会的疫情防控参与机制与捐赠款物分配机制,并提出对中国的若干启示。     

春心莫共花争发,一寸相思一寸灰——评李商隐无题诗之幻灭感

李商隐的无题诗充满了悲剧美和幻灭感。究其原因与当时的日薄西山的晚唐颓势、政治漩涡中的悲惨仕遇、无可倚恃的不幸家世以及爱而不得的恋情悲歌等种种无奈与不幸有关。