货币政策规则对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变影响——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

本文从货币政策理论出发,构建以稳定国际资本流动与人民币汇率的“多目标”货币政策规则理论模型,并采用1998年1月至2019年11月的月度数据,建立开放经济下的TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验不同货币政策规则下货币供应冲击、利率冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变与动态影响。结果表明：(1)不同时间阶段,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响存在较强的时变特征。(2)等间隔脉冲响应表明,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动的短期影响效应要高于中长期,而对人民币汇率的影响却存在一定滞后性和扩散性,且价格型规则更有利于熨平外部冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的影响。(3)时点脉冲响应表明,利率冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响弱于货币供应冲击,且利率冲击对国际资本流动的影响回到稳态均衡的速度更快。总体来看,在调节国际资本流动和稳定人民币汇率的效果上,价格型规则优于数量型规则,我国央行货币政策选择应逐步从数量型规则向价格型规则转变。     

基于灰粗集属性知识简约算法的海运规则发现

海运市场运营规则能够帮助海运企业找到盈利增长点,针对海运市场营运规则难于被发现的问题,将灰色系统理论和粗糙集理论进行融合,针对知识约简中分辨函数范式转化过程中的逻辑推演难题,提出了一种基于灰色粗集融合属性的改进约简算法,选取2007年、2010年、2013年、2015年典型年份作为样本年份,应用灰色系统、粗糙集和基于灰粗集知识约简算法分别进行海运市场盈运规则发现实证分析,通过比较证明了该算法的时效性,同时发掘出了当前海运市场的船型、货品、航线、运价、运力间的营运管理规则。     

儿童玩具礼品包装设计的研究与思考

现如今礼品类高端产品由于自身的品牌效应，得到了市场上极高的受欢迎指数，因其包装精美和视觉鲜明的因素，越是在国际市场环境低迷的时候，越容易抢占市场。在中国的儿童玩具礼品领域，不单单需要效仿国际流行的设计趋势，而且还要积极提升国内自主品牌影响力，这才是中国当今发展儿童玩具礼品包装产业，缩小与国际水平之间的差距，夺回本土市场继而进军国际市场的必由之路。具体分别从消费群体和包装设计本身两方面进行调查和分析研究。     

大学内部的利益冲突与组织决策——以某地方综合性大学旧房改造项目为例

本案例中，大学的规章制度与组织结构规定了参与旧房改造项目相关决策的群体和机构以及做出相关决策所需要的步骤与程序，也规定了不同群体在这一决策过程中的不同地位和可能拥有的资源，甚至是他们的决策倾向；旧房改造项目的冲突根源在于计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型过程中大学内部出现的不同群体的利益分化，但值得注意的是，这些不同群体的利益冲突却是以质疑相关环节上决策者行为的合法性为中心展开的，而关于合法性的争议则更多地涉及了对相关行为的价值意义的解释。     

Agreements About Extra-Dyadic Sex in Gay Men's Relationships: Exploring Differences in Relationship Quality by Agreement Type and Rule-Breaking Behavior

Research comparing the quality of monogamous and non-monogamous (“open”) relationships among gay men has produced mixed findings. In addition, little is known about the consequences of breaking the rules of relationship agreements about extra-dyadic sex. Results from a survey of 229 gay men in romantic relationships showed that open relationships were less passionate, but no less intimate or committed, than monogamous or “threesome-only” relationships. However, men who broke rules reported lower relationship quality overall, regardless of the relationship agreement. Thus, it is less the nature of the agreement itself than adhering to the conditions of it that influences relationship quality.     

群体性事件中的民众心态分析

群体性事件中的骨干力量、普通参与者和旁观者在群体性事件中的策略选择和心态往往会存在一定的差异。将小事闹大来实现维权的目的、借机敛财和对社会进行仇视是群体性事件骨干力量抱持的三种基本心态。普通参与者参与群体性事件的目的并不像骨干力量那样明确,从众和搭便车心理等往往是他们的心态。作为旁观者而存在的某些境外媒体抱持一种唯恐中国不乱、别有用心的心态。极少数不具有利害关系的普通民众以及没有参与群体性事件的一般利害关系人也会表现出一种兴灾乐祸的心态。既然中国当下群体性事件参与者的心态是多元化的,政府在群体性事件的解决过程应当充分考虑参与者的具体心态,建立一套以分类管理为核心的规则治理的应对策略。     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.     

The “Silent Dog” Method: Analyzing the Impact of Self-Generated Rules When Teaching Different Computer Chains to Boys with Autism

The purpose of the study was to extend the literature on verbal self-regulation by using the “silent dog” method to evaluate the role of verbal regulation over nonverbal behavior in 2 individuals with autism. Participants were required to talk-aloud while performing functional computer tasks.Then the effects of distracters with increasing demands on target behavior were evaluated as well as whether self-talk emitted by Participant 1 could be used to alter Participant 2''s performance. Results suggest that participants'' tasks seemed to be under control of self-instructions, and the rules generated from Participants 1''s self-talk were effective in teaching computer skills to Participant 2. The silent dog method was useful in evaluating the possible role of self-generated rules in teaching computer skills to participants with autism.     

基于农村居民需求演变规律的供给侧创新研究

分析了我国农村居民生产资料和生活资料需求侧的演变特点与规律,认为当农民的收入水平和恩格尔系数达到小康水平时,满足最低农业生产所需的生产资料和基本温饱的生活资料,不会因为农民收入水平的提高而同比率提高;而满足高效率、享受型、健康型的生产资料和生活资料需求却大幅度增长,此时“供给侧”对商品种类和服务种类的供给创新与发展,成为刺激和促进农村居民消费增长的主要因素。今后应在科技、高效、享受、智能、健康等范畴和方面,提升供给侧对农村居民所需商品和服务的创新和发展能力。