货币政策规则对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变影响——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

本文从货币政策理论出发,构建以稳定国际资本流动与人民币汇率的“多目标”货币政策规则理论模型,并采用1998年1月至2019年11月的月度数据,建立开放经济下的TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验不同货币政策规则下货币供应冲击、利率冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变与动态影响。结果表明：(1)不同时间阶段,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响存在较强的时变特征。(2)等间隔脉冲响应表明,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动的短期影响效应要高于中长期,而对人民币汇率的影响却存在一定滞后性和扩散性,且价格型规则更有利于熨平外部冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的影响。(3)时点脉冲响应表明,利率冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响弱于货币供应冲击,且利率冲击对国际资本流动的影响回到稳态均衡的速度更快。总体来看,在调节国际资本流动和稳定人民币汇率的效果上,价格型规则优于数量型规则,我国央行货币政策选择应逐步从数量型规则向价格型规则转变。     

A Unified Approach to the Approximation of Multivariate Densities

Approximation of a density by another density is considered in the case of different dimensionalities of the distributions. The results have been derived by inverting expansions of characteristic functions with the help of matrix techniques. The approximations obtained are all functions of cumulant differences and derivatives of the approximating density. The multivariate Edgeworth expansion follows from the results as a special case. Furthermore, the density functions of the trace and eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix are approximated by the multivariate normal density and a numerical example is given     

基于灰粗集属性知识简约算法的海运规则发现

海运市场运营规则能够帮助海运企业找到盈利增长点,针对海运市场营运规则难于被发现的问题,将灰色系统理论和粗糙集理论进行融合,针对知识约简中分辨函数范式转化过程中的逻辑推演难题,提出了一种基于灰色粗集融合属性的改进约简算法,选取2007年、2010年、2013年、2015年典型年份作为样本年份,应用灰色系统、粗糙集和基于灰粗集知识约简算法分别进行海运市场盈运规则发现实证分析,通过比较证明了该算法的时效性,同时发掘出了当前海运市场的船型、货品、航线、运价、运力间的营运管理规则。     

Problems with Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the 3 Parameter Gamma Distribution

The three parameters involved are scale a , shape 𝜌 , and location s . Maximum likelihood estimators are (\hata, \hat\rho, \hats) . Using recent work on the second order variances, skewness, and kurtosis we establish the facts, that if the location parameter s is to be estimated, then the asymptotic variances only exist if 𝜌 >2, asymptotic skewness only exists if 𝜌 >3, and 2nd order variances and third order fourth central moments only exist if 𝜌 >4. The result of these limitations is that in general very large sample sizes may be needed to avoid inference problems. We also include new continued fractions for the asymptotic covariances of the maximum likelihood estimators considered.     

儿童玩具礼品包装设计的研究与思考

现如今礼品类高端产品由于自身的品牌效应，得到了市场上极高的受欢迎指数，因其包装精美和视觉鲜明的因素，越是在国际市场环境低迷的时候，越容易抢占市场。在中国的儿童玩具礼品领域，不单单需要效仿国际流行的设计趋势，而且还要积极提升国内自主品牌影响力，这才是中国当今发展儿童玩具礼品包装产业，缩小与国际水平之间的差距，夺回本土市场继而进军国际市场的必由之路。具体分别从消费群体和包装设计本身两方面进行调查和分析研究。     

大学内部的利益冲突与组织决策——以某地方综合性大学旧房改造项目为例

本案例中，大学的规章制度与组织结构规定了参与旧房改造项目相关决策的群体和机构以及做出相关决策所需要的步骤与程序，也规定了不同群体在这一决策过程中的不同地位和可能拥有的资源，甚至是他们的决策倾向；旧房改造项目的冲突根源在于计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型过程中大学内部出现的不同群体的利益分化，但值得注意的是，这些不同群体的利益冲突却是以质疑相关环节上决策者行为的合法性为中心展开的，而关于合法性的争议则更多地涉及了对相关行为的价值意义的解释。     

Agreements About Extra-Dyadic Sex in Gay Men's Relationships: Exploring Differences in Relationship Quality by Agreement Type and Rule-Breaking Behavior

Research comparing the quality of monogamous and non-monogamous (“open”) relationships among gay men has produced mixed findings. In addition, little is known about the consequences of breaking the rules of relationship agreements about extra-dyadic sex. Results from a survey of 229 gay men in romantic relationships showed that open relationships were less passionate, but no less intimate or committed, than monogamous or “threesome-only” relationships. However, men who broke rules reported lower relationship quality overall, regardless of the relationship agreement. Thus, it is less the nature of the agreement itself than adhering to the conditions of it that influences relationship quality.     

群体性事件中的民众心态分析

群体性事件中的骨干力量、普通参与者和旁观者在群体性事件中的策略选择和心态往往会存在一定的差异。将小事闹大来实现维权的目的、借机敛财和对社会进行仇视是群体性事件骨干力量抱持的三种基本心态。普通参与者参与群体性事件的目的并不像骨干力量那样明确,从众和搭便车心理等往往是他们的心态。作为旁观者而存在的某些境外媒体抱持一种唯恐中国不乱、别有用心的心态。极少数不具有利害关系的普通民众以及没有参与群体性事件的一般利害关系人也会表现出一种兴灾乐祸的心态。既然中国当下群体性事件参与者的心态是多元化的,政府在群体性事件的解决过程应当充分考虑参与者的具体心态,建立一套以分类管理为核心的规则治理的应对策略。     

A general approximation to quantiles

For many continuous distributions, a closed-form expression for their quantiles does not exist. Numerical approximations for their quantiles are developed on a distribution-by-distribution basis. This work develops a general approximation for quantiles using the Taylor expansion. Our method only requires that the distribution has a continuous probability density function and its derivatives can be derived to a certain order (usually 3 or 4). We demonstrate our unified approach by approximating the quantiles of the normal, exponential, and chi-square distributions. The approximation works well for these distributions.