裂缝地层漏失规律研究

本文根据地下裂缝的漏失特性，建立了地下裂缝漏失规律的数学模型，并导出了各种流体在裂缝中的流动挽律。根据流动规律可以定量分析和计算漏速或漏失量与压差、裂缝尺寸、钻井液流变性能等之间的关系，这时优选优配堵漏荆的性能，选择合理的堵漏方法，提高防漏堵漏的成功率具有重要的指导意义。     

“走廊”与“通道”:中国西南区域研究的人类学再构思

中国西南的人类学研究有着深厚的区域研究传统。改革开放之后,西南研究陆续出现了＂区域模式＂、＂族群模式＂和＂跨境模式＂三种研究范式。其中＂区域模式＂更贴近于社会历史现实,具有强烈的学科问题意识。至二十一世纪,基于历史上民族的源流考察与走势判断,兴起了诸如西南丝绸之路、茶马古道、滇黔驿道、进藏公路等＂通道＂研究。这种基于＂走廊＂学说和＂通道＂研究而展开的＂区域模式＂,将交互性和流动性作为研究之重点,来深入地阐释形塑西南中国社会人文特质的关系结构,将有利于中国人类学获得更符合中国历史文化经验的世界图式,也有助于具体研究者获得真正的文化自觉和认知主体性。人类学的中国西南研究只有基于＂区域性＂的大视野来展开,在一种关系格局中来寻找西南研究的问题意识,才能摆脱＂民族性＂的现代叙事,并对＂民族认同＂这样的问题有所超越,最终回归到当地的社会历史现实和人文形态特质来深化对中国西南的认识把握,从而在学理上展开一些更为深入的对话。     

电视频道专业化的困境与策略

频道专业化是世界电视发展的潮流。我国在电视频道专业化的进程中存在一些问题。在此，从盈利模式、受众细分、频道定位等方面深层次剖析限制我国频道专业化发展的瓶颈，并借鉴国际上成熟的专业化频道的运作经验，有针对性地提出了一系列频道专业化的建设思路和营销策略，以求能对电视业务界有借鉴、指导意义。     

土地流转视角的农村人力资本流动及其对策建议

农村人力资本的合理流动是土地流转的前提。土地流转能够有效提高土地资源配置效率．进一步激活农村富余劳动力的转移。观念障碍、信息障碍、成本障碍、技能障碍、制度障碍、职位障碍、收益障碍和公平障碍等八大障碍，较严重地制约了农村人力资本的流动，阻碍了土地流转的进一步实施。必须消除这些障碍，进一步促进人力资本有序流动。     

体制转型中的民意表达及其约束机制

民意表达渠道在计划经济向市场经济体制转型过程中表现出的不适应，是民意表达渠道梗阻的重要原因。从制度上解决民意表达渠道的梗阻问题，需逐步建立与完善促进民意充分表达的制度体系，并针对体制转型时期特点，积极探索有利于制度化保障民意渠道畅通的过渡性措施、方法，推进疏通民意表达渠道的实践逐步走上制度化的轨道。同时要深入民意表达渠道程序设计、指标评价体系研究，逐步建立和完善保障民意表达渠道便捷、畅通的制约机制。     

Competition and Coordination in a Two‐Channel Supply Chain

We study competition and coordination in a supply chain in which a single supplier both operates a direct channel and sells its product through multiple differentiated retailers. We study analytically the supply chain with symmetric retailers and find that the supplier prefers to have as many retailers as possible in the market, even if the retailers' equilibrium retail price is lower than that of the supplier, and even if the number of retailers and their cost or market advantage prevent sales through the direct channel. We find that the two‐channel supply chain may be subject to inefficiencies not present in the single‐channel supply chain. We show that several contracts known to coordinate a single‐channel supply chain do not coordinate the two‐channel supply chain; thus we propose a linear quantity discount contract and demonstrate its ability to perfectly coordinate the two‐channel supply chain with symmetric retailers. We provide some analytical results for the supply chain with asymmetric retailers and propose an efficient solution approach for finding the equilibrium. We find numerically that the supplier still benefits from having more retailers in the market and that linear quantity discount contracts can mitigate supply chain inefficiency, though they no longer achieve perfect coordination.     

现代服务业是否有助于推动城镇化？——基于产城融合视角的PVAR模型分析

目前中国的城镇化现象难以完全用"工业决定论"来解释,服务业在城镇化过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。流通业和旅游业作为现代服务业的主导产业,具有较强的集聚功能和就业吸纳能力,还具有较强的城市经济功能和服务功能,成为城镇产业体系和公共服务体系的必要组成部分。首先对服务业与城镇化之间的互动作用机制进行理论分析;然后建立PVAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析变量之间的因果关系;最后构建耦合协调评价模型,从全国、区域及行业层面对系统间的相互作用强度与协调发展水平进行实证分析,并归纳协调发展模式。研究发现：以流通业、旅游业为主导产业的现代服务业与城镇化之间存在因果关系和稳定均衡关系,能够推动城镇化发展;早期由工业化推动的城镇化水平高于流通业和旅游业,后期两者逐渐缩减与城镇化的差距,系统间的耦合协调发展水平不断提升,但存在区域差异;耦合协调发展模式归纳为演化趋同型和发展同步型,发展同步型组合内各系统发展水平相对一致,有助于快速提升耦合协调发展水平。     

营销渠道中合同详尽性对角色外利他行为的影响——信任与投机的中介作用

以营销渠道行为理论为基础,探讨合同详尽性对经销商角色外利他行为的影响,并提出了信任与投机行为在合同详尽性与角色外利他行为关系间起中介作用。以中国家电行业经销商为调研对象,运用多元回归分析方法对660份有效问卷进行分析,研究结果表明:合同详尽性对经销商角色外利他行为具有显著的正向影响,经销商信任、供应商投机行为在合同详尽性与角色外利他行为之间起到部分中介作用。     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

对商业流通地位理论与实践的思考

随着社会主义市场经济体制的确立,商业经济理论也进入新的发展时期,在阐述和介绍商业流通理论、商业流通地位理论的基础上,本文就如何强化商业流通地位提出四点认识。