少数民族流动人口突发事件风险管理体系研究简

对少数民族流动人口突发事件风险管理体系进行探讨具有重要的现实意义；对其管理过程中的风险识别、评估、处置及善后审视等几个环节的操作过程进行考察，是研究其之关键因素。     

Three Approaches to Understanding Self-Help Groups

With the increasing importance of self-help groups, professionals need to augment their understanding of how groups work in order to help clients make effective use of them. Three conceptual frameworks-social networks, social learning and cognitive theory-explain the basic psychosocial processes of self-help groups. Practice implications indicate how clients can benefit from self-help groups and suggest how professionals might enable their clients to realize the full benefits of participation in them.     

Emergency Law in China: Its Formation,Present State and Future

中国非常法律的形成, 是为了应对紧急事件。这类法律由法律法规、应急预案和 军事法规等组成, 规定了战争状态、紧急状态和应急状态三种非常状态, 致力于建构 专业化大分工基础上的综合统一体制。在实践中, 应急预案取代了法律法规, 成为紧 急事件治理的基本规范依据; 政府和武装力量处于主导地位。中国非常法律基于必要 而形成, 其适用具有临时性, 主要内容具有授权性和预防性。非常法律未来发展的主 要目标是: 与中国特色社会主义法律体系衔接, 制定紧急状态下的基本法, 完善非常 法律的各项具体机制。

关键词: 非常状态 综合治理 执行主导 预防性法律

China’s emergency laws have emerged as a result of dealing with crises. They comprise laws and regulations, emergency plans, and military regulations, and define three exceptional or emergency states: war, emergency and emergency response, with the aim of constructing a comprehensive integrated system based on the specialized division of labor. In practice, however, emergency plans take the place of laws and regulations and provide the fundamental normative basis for tackling emergencies, with government and the military playing the dominant role. Developing out of necessity and possessing temporary applicability, China’s emergency laws are characterized by authorization and prevention. Integrating emergency law with the socialist legal system with Chinese characteristics, formulating basic law for emergency situations and improving the specific mechanisms of emergency law should be regarded as major steps in its future development.     

探析我国突发公共卫生危机治理的路向选择

文章就当前我国突发公共卫生危机应对只处于“管理”而非“治理”的现状，提出我国需要建设由政府部门、非政府组织、私营部门、公民个人和家庭及国际组织等全主体力量的参与，形成高度组织化的突发公共卫生危机治理体系，使之成为全主体、全危险要素、全过程应对突发公共卫生危机的长期合作网络和制度平台，即着眼全球视野的治理网络，凝聚全国组织治理公共卫生危机的整体合力；着力全主体应急平台建设，整合全部资源畅通公共卫生危机的信息机制；着手全方位应急预案体系，操演全新流程强化公共卫生危机的响应计划；着重全国民疾病防控体系，强化全员监督提高公共卫生危机的应对能力；着实全社会应急知识宣教，推动全民学习锻造公共卫生危机的组织实力。     

累积的异质性：生命历程视角下的老年人分化

本文以生命历程理论为研究视角，以深度访谈的方法收集老年人“主诉”的关于过去的生活资料，试图通过对个人能动性与生命历程时间性的强调，来分析个体生命历程与社会变迁的相互嵌入过程，以及这一过程中不断分化的内部机制。研究发现，老化的过程是一个随时间推移不断累积与分化的过程，累积因素的先后顺序对个体之间的分化具有重要意义，累积是生命历程资本遭遇生命历程风险的结果，是社会结构与个人能动性相互作用的动态过程，其中社会政策的变迁对累积过程具有决定性的影响。     

英语动物名词“动用”的转喻认知理据

名词“动用”是一种常见的语法现象，体现了人类基本的转喻思维模式。从概念转喻的视角研究英语动物名词动用的认知修辞效果，可以更好地揭示该语言现象产生的认知机制，为进一步探究词类转换的认知理据提供新的视角。     

何以"当大事"--双凤村丧葬个案的人类学分析

从文化意义框架和社会互动模式之间的不和谐来解释一些仪式中的矛盾冲突的分析方法是极具启示性的。这种分析是对一味强调文化的平衡系统、社会的内部稳定以及永恒的结构从而难以理解急剧变迁的社会生活中的各种矛盾的功能主义的超越,是人类学话语空间扩展。土家族山寨双凤村的一个充满了种种冲突的葬礼,则凸显了文化以及社会内部的矛盾因素是造成社区生活冲突的更为内在也更为重要的因素。仪式的举行还表明了遵守传统规则的必要性,而作为一种实践活动,遵守规则还意味着制定规则以及改变规则。     

"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).     

On evaluating how well a biomarker can predict treatment response with survival data

One of the objectives of personalized medicine is to take treatment decisions based on a biomarker measurement. Therefore, it is often interesting to evaluate how well a biomarker can predict the response to a treatment. To do so, a popular methodology consists of using a regression model and testing for an interaction between treatment assignment and biomarker. However, the existence of an interaction is not sufficient for a biomarker to be predictive. It is only necessary. Hence, the use of the marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve has been recommended. In addition to evaluate how well a single continuous biomarker predicts treatment response, it can further help to define an optimal threshold. This curve displays the risk of a binary outcome as a function of the quantiles of the biomarker, for each treatment group. Methods that assume a binary outcome or rely on a proportional hazard model for a time‐to‐event outcome have been proposed to estimate this curve. In this work, we propose some extensions for censored data. They rely on a time‐dependent logistic model, and we propose to estimate this model via inverse probability of censoring weighting. We present simulations results and three applications to prostate cancer, liver cirrhosis, and lung cancer data. They suggest that a large number of events need to be observed to define a threshold with sufficient accuracy for clinical usefulness. They also illustrate that when the treatment effect varies with the time horizon which defines the outcome, then the optimal threshold also depends on this time horizon.     

论村干部在突发事件中的行为规范

以村干部为研究对象,深入考察村干部个人决策行为与职务决策行为在处置突发事件中的影响,并通过对村干部在突发事件中行为的分析,提出突发事件事前预防、事中处置、事后恢复重建三个阶段中村干部行为的标准及规范流程,并提出建立规范化村级组织机构应急策略,以此推动应急决策的制度化、规范化与程序化。