英语虚拟语气的"真"与"假"

虚拟语气是表示与事实相反或几乎相反的语气 ,其由表层结构决定的语音表达式为假层意义 ,由深层结构决定的语义表达式为真层意义。英语虚拟语气的“真”与“假”主要存在于副词从句和名词从句中。     

Addressing the Dependency Problem in Access Security System Architecture Design

The objective of this research is to present a method for evaluating the performance of access control security systems, such as airport security operations. This requires the examination of security system architectures, which involve security technology devices and the algorithms that coordinate their operations. Dependence between device responses in multiple-device systems is a critical practical issue in assessing the performance of such architectures, though no results on this problem have appeared in the literature. This paper presents a method for evaluating when multipledevice security systems with overlapping capabilities are cost-effective. This is achieved using a dependency structure for security system devices to quantify how various technologies interact and to measure the impact of device dependence on system error probabilities. A measure of device response dependence for a two-device system is defined and its properties are explored, including bounds on the dependency measure. The effect of dependence on the system Type I and Type II error probabilities is examined for the two-device system. System performance is compared for independent vs. dependent device responses and desirable dependence relationships are identified. Results are also presented for a cascading sequence of devices. An example is presented to illustrate the results for the two-device system. Implications of these results are discussed, such as how they can be used to identify the optimal use of security devices and to determine whether new technologies warrant investment.     

Controlling type I error rates in multi-arm clinical trials: A case for the false discovery rate

Multi-arm trials are an efficient way of simultaneously testing several experimental treatments against a shared control group. As well as reducing the sample size required compared to running each trial separately, they have important administrative and logistical advantages. There has been debate over whether multi-arm trials should correct for the fact that multiple null hypotheses are tested within the same experiment. Previous opinions have ranged from no correction is required, to a stringent correction (controlling the probability of making at least one type I error) being needed, with regulators arguing the latter for confirmatory settings. In this article, we propose that controlling the false-discovery rate (FDR) is a suitable compromise, with an appealing interpretation in multi-arm clinical trials. We investigate the properties of the different correction methods in terms of the positive and negative predictive value (respectively how confident we are that a recommended treatment is effective and that a non-recommended treatment is ineffective). The number of arms and proportion of treatments that are truly effective is varied. Controlling the FDR provides good properties. It retains the high positive predictive value of FWER correction in situations where a low proportion of treatments is effective. It also has a good negative predictive value in situations where a high proportion of treatments is effective. In a multi-arm trial testing distinct treatment arms, we recommend that sponsors and trialists consider use of the FDR.     

互联网经济中炒信行为的规制路径

互联网经济中的信任主要基于信誉生成，符号化的信誉等级起着配置市场资源的重要作用。为争夺有限的市场资源，商家出现刷单炒信等失信行为。以预防论观之，当下对炒信行为的规制存在诸多问题，主要体现为惩戒力度不大、查处概率低，导致威慑力不充分，无法有效阻吓潜在的炒信行为。造成这种问题的根本原因在于规制路径与边际成本低下的互联网经济不匹配，因此迫切需要创新规制形式。根据预防论的分析逻辑，在当下的规制框架中配套使用信用工具不仅可形成全面而充分的威慑，而且成本很低。信用工具的要义在于促使负面信息的高效流动和失信惩罚机制的完备，应建立整合信息归集、评级、公开、运用的信用制度系统，进而通过声誉制裁和失信联合惩罚制度形成合理的威慑和有效的阻吓。     

The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making

Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather‐related decision making. Over a series of trials, participants used an overnight low temperature forecast and advice from a decision aid to decide whether to apply salt treatment to a town's roads to prevent icy conditions or take the risk of withholding treatment, which resulted in a large penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. The decision aid gave treatment recommendations, some of which were false alarms, i.e., treatment was recommended but observed temperatures were above freezing. The rate at which the advice resulted in false alarms was manipulated between groups. Results suggest that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. However, adding a probabilistic uncertainty estimate in the forecasts improved both compliance and decision quality. These findings carry implications about how weather warnings should be communicated to the public.     

A note on multiple testing for composite null hypotheses

Multiple hypothesis testing literature has recently experienced a growing development with particular attention to the control of the false discovery rate (FDR) based on p-values. While these are not the only methods to deal with multiplicity, inference with small samples and large sets of hypotheses depends on the specific choice of the p-value used to control the FDR in the presence of nuisance parameters. In this paper we propose to use the partial posterior predictive p-value [Bayarri, M.J., Berger, J.O., 2000. p-values for composite null models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 95, 1127–1142] that overcomes this difficulty. This choice is motivated by theoretical considerations and examples. Finally, an application to a controlled microarray experiment is presented.     

A new model of the development of deception: Disentangling the role of false‐belief understanding in deceptive ability

“Deception” is defined predominantly as the intentional attempt to create false‐beliefs in others. However, the intentionality behind early acts of deception and its relation to false‐belief understanding remain unresolved. In this article, we offer a three‐stage theoretical model of the development of deception in human ontogeny. We posit that at any age, human deception is an intentional action, but its form changes according to the level of the deceiver's intentionality. As the primary function of deception is to influence the behaviour of others, we argue that first‐stage deceptions‐in‐action involves only in the analysis of behaviours and perceptual access, not beliefs. In our view, the ability to deceive and false‐belief understanding are eventually inter‐connected, but false‐belief understanding is not essential for the earliest form of deception. Based on empirical findings, which suggest that by observing the results of early deceptions children build their knowledge of mental states as causes of human actions, we claim that the second stage of deception is representational deception. Further, as the understanding of beliefs becomes more advanced, the effectiveness of children's deception increases, and new forms of reflective deception (the third stage) emerge. Future directions for research are outlined, and limitations of the current model are discussed.     

会计信息失真的经济学研究

目前，国内外大量会计丑闻表明，会计信息失真问题已成为国际问题。用经济学中的博弈论方法能够更加深刻的分析会计信息失真的原因，并能够通过原因的分析提出有效的解决措施。     

宋代诉讼中减少诬告的规范及措施

根据详实史料，探索宋代法律为减少诬告现象所制定的有关诉讼程序规范。如从年龄和身体健康两方面限制投状者范围，状书不得匿名或多名，状书内容要明确，不得含糊称疑，投状者必须签写反坐状等等，这些措施实施效果良莠不一。在具体司法实践中，司法官员通过采取在灾荒年减少案件受理、膀示诬讼案件、严惩贪图私利的官吏以及在主刑外附加从刑等方式，寓教化于刑罚，以期减少诬讼现象。