领域知识促进创造性问题解决——专家与新手的比较

研究采用错误记忆范式和远距离联想范式，探讨了领域知识对创造性问题解决的影响。结果发现，专家比新手产生更多的错误记忆，具有更好地解决创造性问题的能力。这一结果表明，专家在领域内比新手具有更广泛的概念扩散激活，能更好地解决创造性问题，说明领域知识在创造性思维过程中所发挥的独特作用。     

《枣窗闲笔》辨伪论

《枣窗闲笔》提到的与曹雪芹有关的信息是自相矛盾的。《枣窗闲笔》的作者与＂脂评本＂中的＂脂研斋＂在说话口气、表达习惯等如此相似;他们都推崇八十回本《红楼梦》,提出＂程高续书说＂。但从《枣窗闲笔》的诸多自相矛盾的话及目的意图看,此书是为迎合＂新红学派＂观点而造,不具备文献价值。     

False Discovery Rate Control of Step‐Up‐Down Tests with Special Emphasis on the Asymptotically Optimal Rejection Curve

Abstract. This paper is concerned with exact control of the false discovery rate (FDR) for step‐up‐down (SUD) tests related to the asymptotically optimal rejection curve (AORC). Since the system of equations and/or constraints for critical values and FDRs is numerically extremely sensitive, existence and computation of valid solutions is a challenging problem. We derive explicit formulas for upper bounds of the FDR and show that under a well‐known monotonicity condition, control of the FDR by a step‐up procedure results in control of the FDR by a corresponding SUD procedure. Various methods for adjusting the AORC to achieve finite FDR control are investigated. Moreover, we introduce alternative FDR bounding curves and study their connection to rejection curves as well as the existence of critical values for exact FDR control with respect to the underlying FDR bounding curve. Finally, we propose an iterative method for the computation of critical values.     

浙江大学藏简辨伪

《浙江大学藏战国楚简》左第67简、第68简、第11简、第32简、第33简、第34简、第55简、第98简、第99简、第75简、第76简、第58简、第14简、第1简以及《浙江大学藏战国楚简》至第1简伪迹十分明显,终于露出了《浙江大学藏战国楚简》是伪作的马脚,从根本上解决了浙江大学藏简的真伪问题。     

The Influence of Divorcing Mothers' Demeanor on Custody Evaluators' Assessment of Their Domestic Violence Allegations

A gap exists between empirical evidence demonstrating the risks posed by domestic violence (DV) and the weight that evidence is given by custody evaluators. This gap may result from common beliefs about DV that diminish or deny its seriousness, which include that mothers often make false allegations to gain advantage and that DV and high conflict are synonymous and do not require differential approaches. Using a multiple segment factorial vignette design, we systematically assessed how these beliefs influenced custody evaluators' (N = 603) recommendations and judgments of the believability of allegations. Mother's demeanor (i.e., hostile vs. pleasant) was the most consistent predictor of evaluators' recommendations and judgments of credibility. Findings have implications for providing research-based education and training for evaluators.     

后古典时代“审美”困境十图解

“后古典主义”是向中国现代美学历史进程延滞并占据主导地位的古典主义,“后古典时代”既涵盖王国维美学之后亦即20世纪初至今的中国美学百余年的历史,又特指“文革”结束至今被称为“新时期”的三十多年的发展过程。在后一个时期中,“审美”问题占据中心地位,而中国当代美学对这个问题的理解和阐述,就总体而言仍深陷古典主义之中;在纯审美和纯功利之间做周期性摆动和转换,这已成为中国当代美学的基本路数和常规现象。正视并深入研究其形成的条件和原因,或许可以找到走出困境进而推动中国美学现代进程的门径。     

Validation of qualitative microbiological test methods

This paper considers a statistical model for the detection mechanism of qualitative microbiological test methods with a parameter for the detection proportion (the probability to detect a single organism) and a parameter for the false positive rate. It is demonstrated that the detection proportion and the bacterial density cannot be estimated separately, not even in a multiple dilution experiment. Only the product can be estimated, changing the interpretation of the most probable number estimator. The asymptotic power of the likelihood ratio statistic for comparing an alternative method with the compendial method, is optimal for a single dilution experiment. The bacterial density should either be close to two CFUs per test unit or equal to zero, depending on differences in the model parameters between the two test methods. The proposed strategy for method validation is to use these two dilutions and test for differences in the two model parameters, addressing the validation parameters specificity and accuracy. Robustness of these two parameters might still be required, but all other validation parameters can be omitted. A confidence interval‐based approach for the ratio of the detection proportions for the two methods is recommended, since it is most informative and close to the power of the likelihood ratio test. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tests for Coefficients in High‐dimensional Additive Hazard Models

We consider hypothesis testing problems for low‐dimensional coefficients in a high dimensional additive hazard model. A variance reduced partial profiling estimator (VRPPE) is proposed and its asymptotic normality is established, which enables us to test the significance of each single coefficient when the data dimension is much larger than the sample size. Based on the p‐values obtained from the proposed test statistics, we then apply a multiple testing procedure to identify significant coefficients and show that the false discovery rate can be controlled at the desired level. The proposed method is also extended to testing a low‐dimensional sub‐vector of coefficients. The finite sample performance of the proposed testing procedure is evaluated by simulation studies. We also apply it to two real data sets, with one focusing on testing low‐dimensional coefficients and the other focusing on identifying significant coefficients through the proposed multiple testing procedure.     

从“诬告反坐”到“讹诈有罚”——对被救助者诬赖救助者立法惩罚的再思考

当下诸多被救助者诬告讹诈救助者事件的背后,无不折射出单纯中华传统道德诉求已经不能协调社会的健康发展。当道德的软性约束作用无法发挥时,通过法律制度的建设惩罚诬告讹诈者就成为必要。然现代"讹诈有罚"并非简单的惩恶扬善呼吁,也并非中国古代"诬告反坐"的直接过渡与顺承。立法惩罚诬告者还需从制度渊源、现行体制、证据认定、责任承担、惩罚措施等多方予以考虑。     

对虚拟虚假经济现象催生不良贷款的研究——以农业发展银行信贷情况为例

虚拟虚假经济现象催生不良贷款的隐蔽性、欺骗性、危害性很大,但还没有引起广大金融工作者警觉。信贷企业主要是通过虚拟价值体获得贷款必要条件,主要虚拟、虚假抵押物品价值、商品价值、贷款衍生物品价值等诱获贷款。不良贷款内部质量结构不同,风险程度也就不同。不良贷款最终形成和最终造成损失的程度,不是简单地由不良贷款"量"决定的,而主要取决于不良贷款的"质"以及债务者对待债务的"动机"。要高度重视道德风险防范。对不良贷款采用新型的"五级风险量度""五级风险警界区"方法区别跟踪监管。