How Parenting Style Affects False Belief Understanding

This study investigated whether mothers facilitate false belief understanding, and if so, what strategies are particularly relevant. The mothers of 64 3- and 4-year-olds were given questionnaires eliciting information about mother's education, mother's occupation, number of younger and older siblings, the time the child spends with mother, and about how mothers deal with five disciplinary situations with their child. Three variables were positively correlated with belief understanding: age, number of older siblings, and number of times mothers said they would respond to the disciplinary situations by asking the child to reflect on the victim's feelings (How Feel responses). These three variables had an independent effect on belief understanding because each was significant after accounting for the influence due to the other two variables. In contrast, there was no significant positive relation between belief understanding and mothers who engaged their child in general discussion and exploration of the disciplinary issues, or who simply reprimanded the child without discussing the situation. The effects for number of older siblings and How Feel responses remained even after the influence due to the child's age, verbal mental age, time spent with the mother, and number of younger siblings was accounted for. The results are consistent with recent research showing that parent-child relations may be important for theory of mind understanding. More importantly, they provide insight into a specific strategy by which parents may help children learn about mental states.     

操纵证券市场罪兜底条款之探析

随着社会和科学技术的发展,操纵证券市场行为变得越来越复杂且难以认定。比较和分析各国相关立法与我国相关规定,结合我国证券市场已经出现或可能出现的操纵行为,可见我国“以其他方法操纵证券市场”行为方式的犯罪．现阶段主要包括蛊惑交易、虚假申报、特定时段交易、抢帽子交易和违反诚信的安定操作等5种。     

Power and stability comparisons of multiple testing procedures with false discovery rate control

High-throughput data analyses are widely used for examining differential gene expression, identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms, and detecting methylation loci. False discovery rate (FDR) has been considered a proper type I error rate to control for discovery-based high-throughput data analysis. Various multiple testing procedures have been proposed to control the FDR. The power and stability properties of some commonly used multiple testing procedures have not been extensively investigated yet, however. Simulation studies were conducted to compare power and stability properties of five widely used multiple testing procedures at different proportions of true discoveries for various sample sizes for both independent and dependent test statistics. Storey's two linear step-up procedures showed the best performance among all tested procedures considering FDR control, power, and variance of true discoveries. Leukaemia and ovarian cancer microarray studies were used to illustrate the power and stability characteristics of these five multiple testing procedures with FDR control.     

The effect of autocorrelation on the retrospective X-chart

Quality control chart interpretation is usually based on the assumption that successive observations are independent over time. In this article we show the effect of autocorrelation on the retrospective Shewhart chart for individuals, often referred to as the X-chart, with the control limits based on moving ranges. It is shown that the presence of positive first lag autocorrelation results in an increased number of false alarms from the control chart. Negative first lag autocorrelation can result in unnecessarily wide control limits such that significant shifts in the process mean may go undetected. We use first-order autoregressive and first-order moving average models in our simulation of small samples of autocorrelated data.     

Addition of runs to an s-level supersaturated design

The purpose of the present work is to extend the work of Gupta et al. (2010) to s  -level column balanced supersaturated designs. Addition of runs to an existing E(χ²)-optimal supersaturated design and to study the optimality of the resulting design is an important issue. This paper considers the study of the optimality of the resulting design. A lower bound to E(χ²) has been obtained for the extended supersaturated designs. Some examples and a small catalogue of E(χ²)-optimal supersaturated designs are also presented.     

信息不对称条件下双寡头市场中质量差异化产品虚假信息问题研究

基于博弈论和契约理论,研究了信息不对称条件下双寡头市场质量差异化产品定价过程中虚假信息的问题。消费者与企业关于产品质量信息存在严重不对称,为企业使用虚假质量信息提高企业利润提供了较大的空间。为分析企业使用虚假信息的问题,本文基于Bertrand博弈模型构建了双寡头市场质量差异化产品定价模型并求解企业利润。求解结果表明双寡头市场的纳什博弈均衡解为两企业均使用虚假信息,在此基础上进一步从契约的角度对企业使用虚假信息的问题进行了合理规避。最后运用算例分析验证了模型的正确性。     

电子假账的法律治理

电子假账是随着计算机技术与网络技术的广泛应用、出现电子会计之后而形成的会计假账。由于电子会计过程受网络技术无纸化、超速化、全球化等特征的影响,使得电子假账较之一般的会计假账对市场经济秩序和社会安定所造成的危害更大,故亟需探索一套行之有效的电子假账法律治理体系。     

文中子研究述论

在中国学术史上、在儒学的发展史中,文中子王通都占据着重要的地位,对后世的思想界产生了很大的影响。但于文中子的研究,相对其他儒家学者来说一直比较薄弱,亦存在着一些疑团和迷雾,当代的文中子研究也出现了一些新的起色。在对这位大儒深入研究之前,展望一下文中子研究的历史与现状是很有必要的。     

破产欺诈犯罪立法研究

破产欺诈犯罪是破产犯罪中最严重、最典型的犯罪。英美法系和大陆法系的很多国家都做了规定。在我国大陆,破产欺诈犯罪可以适用的罪名是刑法第162条妨害清算罪,和《刑法修正案(六)》第六条的虚假破产罪。通过考察国外立法,以期对我国立法完善有所帮助。      

On the confusion matrix in credit scoring and its analytical properties

Abstract

Confusion Matrix is an important measure to evaluate the accuracy of credit scoring models. However, the literature about Confusion Matrix is limited. The analytical properties of Confusion Matrix are ignored. Moreover, the concept of Confusion Matrix is confusing. In this article, we systematically study Confusion Matrix and its analytical properties. We enumerate 16 possible variants of Confusion Matrix and show that only 8 are reasonable. We study the relationship between Confusion Matrix and 2 other performance measures: the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS). We show that an optimal cutoff score can be attained by KS.