西部乡村—城镇转型多元评价指标体系的构建及应用

以乡村综合发展度、乡村—城镇变迁度、乡村—城镇协调度为测度标准,构建一套综合评价指标体系。以中国西部地区为研究对象,对2001—2010年十年间乡村—城镇转型发展态势进行分析和评价。研究结果表明:(1)从整体层面来看,西部地区乡村综合发展度不断提高,乡村—城镇变迁度不断加快,乡村—城镇协调度不断优化;(2)从省际层面来看,不同省区的乡村—城镇转型呈现出不同的发展面貌,具有较大的差距。     

构建生态治理的多元参与长效机制

在生态问题日益凸显与环境状况持续恶化的现实背景下,多元参与的生态治理模式成为系统协调社会利益诉求、深度整合社会资源力量、实现生态长效性治理的根本之策,并引起了实务与理论界的高度重视。着眼于多元参与机制的源头构建,致力于探寻多元参与长效机制的建构过程、现存问题与解困之策。完善以机制体制为核心的顶层设计、重塑政府角色定位、激活社会公众与社会组织的参与效力,是从根本上应对生态问题的必要路径。     

Methods for exploring treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroup analysis: an application to global clinical trials

Multi‐country randomised clinical trials (MRCTs) are common in the medical literature, and their interpretation has been the subject of extensive recent discussion. In many MRCTs, an evaluation of treatment effect homogeneity across countries or regions is conducted. Subgroup analysis principles require a significant test of interaction in order to claim heterogeneity of treatment effect across subgroups, such as countries in an MRCT. As clinical trials are typically underpowered for tests of interaction, overly optimistic expectations of treatment effect homogeneity can lead researchers, regulators and other stakeholders to over‐interpret apparent differences between subgroups even when heterogeneity tests are insignificant. In this paper, we consider some exploratory analysis tools to address this issue. We present three measures derived using the theory of order statistics, which can be used to understand the magnitude and the nature of the variation in treatment effects that can arise merely as an artefact of chance. These measures are not intended to replace a formal test of interaction but instead provide non‐inferential visual aids, which allow comparison of the observed and expected differences between regions or other subgroups and are a useful supplement to a formal test of interaction. We discuss how our methodology differs from recently published methods addressing the same issue. A case study of our approach is presented using data from the Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), which was a large cardiovascular MRCT that has been the subject of controversy in the literature. An R package is available that implements the proposed methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Priority Rules for Multi‐Task Due‐Date Scheduling under Varying Processing Costs

We study the scheduling of multiple tasks under varying processing costs and derive a priority rule for optimal scheduling policies. Each task has a due date, and a non‐completion penalty cost is incurred if the task is not completely processed before its due date. We assume that the task arrival process is stochastic and the processing rate is capacitated. Our work is motivated by both traditional and emerging application domains, such as construction industry and freelance consulting industry. We establish the optimality of Shorter Slack time and Longer remaining Processing time (SSLP) principle that determines the priority among active tasks. Based on the derived structural properties, we also propose an effective cost‐balancing heuristic policy and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed policy through extensive numerical experiments. We believe our results provide operators/managers valuable insights on how to devise effective service scheduling policies under varying costs.     

浅析多媒体网络技术下高等教育发展趋势

多媒体和网络技术在教学中的广泛应用使高等教育在新的历史时期得到重大发展。从教育思想、教学走向、学科结构与人才培养模式、运行机制与办学模式等方面 ,可大致勾勒出新技术革命背景下高等教育的发展趋势     

不对等的博弈:土改中的基层政治精英

本文以山东、河北等省的土改运动为例,探讨了群众运动中基层政治精英的独特处境和行为特征.土改期间,基层政治精英并未完全成为国家的忠实代理人,而是在社会人、理性人的角色指引下与国家权力进行博弈,以维护村社利益或追逐个人私利.另一方面,乡村民众的介入改变了国家与基层精英的力量对比和博弈格局,致使基层精英既内在于又外在于国家权力体系,处于明显的权责分离状态,这又进一步强化了他们谋求私利和"去政治化"的离心倾向.     

多中心秩序与社区治理模式选择

社区治理之所以一直走不出自治不足的困境,原因就在于行政性的单一中心秩序。执政党领导下的社区多中心因素构筑的多中心秩序是源于市场经济的多中心秩序在社区的延伸和扩展。社区多中心秩序的建立将促进居民互动和社区化,促进居民对社区事务的有序参与。社区党组织、自治组织、非营利组织、营利组织将是多中心因素的主要构建者,法律则是维系多中心秩序的制度保障。     

多重视角的多重形态--《英雄》《公民凯恩》《罗生门》叙事结构之比较

电影《英雄》《公民凯恩》《罗生门》均使用了多重式聚焦叙述结构,让不同的人物从各自的角度、以完全不同的方式来解释、讲述同一事件。但三者决不是简单的模仿。《公民凯恩》的叙述差异来自于人物视角受到的客观条件的限定,每个讲述是真实的,是并列互补的,连缀起来则得到更完整的真实。《罗生门》的叙述差异是由于叙述者的主观取舍而造成的,是彼此对立的、不可靠的,使我们看不到真实何在。《英雄》的叙述差异既是并列的,又是前后勾连、螺旋递升的,在虚实相衬的迷宫讲述中,在不断的否定之中一步步接近真相。     

洗扫车专用风机数值模拟与内流特性分析

针对洗扫车专用风机内流场强旋转和强曲率特点,提出了适宜于分析强旋转和强曲率效应的湍流新模型,并继 而建立了针对洗扫车专用风机的CFD数值模拟策略。研究结果表明：专用风机内流呈现复杂的强旋转效应,该效应下 叶轮间隙流易造成严重的能量损失,叶轮间隙尺寸是专用风机气动设计的关键要素;专用风机叶轮在强曲率、强旋转效 应的作用下,小流量工况时更易出现大面积流动分离甚至回流;不同流量下,回转面静压和总压均呈现出非对称性。随 着流量的增加,静压、总压分布的非对称性会逐渐减弱。分析结果对于提高专用风机的性能,改进其气动特性提供了理 论支持,更好地为生产实践提供指导。     

多属性逆向拍卖中信息披露负效应的成因与应对策略

信息披露正在被越来越多地应用于拍卖过程,主要起调节报价的作用。然而,信息披露在多属性逆向拍卖中潜在的负效应也逐渐展露,主要表现为供应商利润下降、拍卖无效、商业机密泄露等。究其成因,主要有信息的敏感性、披露的复杂性和供应商感知的差异性。因此,针对以上现象及其成因采用供应商合谋、逆向选择、提高竞争力等应对策略,将有助于完善逆向拍卖机制。