影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展动态关系研究——基于省级面板VAR模型

基于2004—2017年中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,使用系统GMM估计、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法分析了影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展之间的动态关系.结果表明:影子银行、地方政府债务与金融发展水平三者之间存在动态耦合关系.在地方政府融资能力受到约束的情况下,影子银行为地方政府提供了多元的融资方式,在增加政府融资能力的同时提升了政府债务水平;而地方政府债务需求显著推动了影子银行规模的快速发展.同时,影子银行过度扩张危害了金融市场的健康发展,降低金融发展水平,继而使地方政府的融资渠道受到约束.但金融发展并不能有效约束影子银行规模,原因在于,政府融资需求是影子银行的主要动力,若不能控制地方政府的借贷行为则无法从源头解决问题.监管机构在去杠杆的过程中,应该综合考虑影子银行与地方政府债务、金融发展之间的动态关系,如此才能够实现预期的政策效果.     

A Grounded Theory of Sexual Minority Women and Transgender Individuals’ Social Justice Activism

Psychosocial benefits of activism include increased empowerment, social connectedness, and resilience. Yet sexual minority women (SMW) and transgender individuals with multiple oppressed statuses and identities are especially prone to oppression-based experiences, even within minority activist communities. This study sought to develop an empirical model to explain the diverse meanings of social justice activism situated in SMW and transgender individuals’ social identities, values, and experiences of oppression and privilege. Using a grounded theory design, 20 SMW and transgender individuals participated in initial, follow-up, and feedback interviews. The most frequent demographic identities were queer or bisexual, White, middle-class women with advanced degrees. The results indicated that social justice activism was intensely relational, replete with multiple benefits, yet rife with experiences of oppression from within and outside of activist communities. The empirically derived model shows the complexity of SMW and transgender individuals’ experiences, meanings, and benefits of social justice activism.     

基于Petri网的微博网络信息传播模型

微博网络中的信息传播模型是分析用户行为，找出传播路径，确定领袖人物，发现舆情热点等研究的基础。虽然多种不同角度的信息传播模型已经得到广泛研究，但缺乏对信息动态传播过程的直观描述。本文基于Petri网的结构和特征，针对微博网络信息传播过程，提出了一种简单直观的描述模型，该模型首先对微博网络的信息动态传播过程中的对象进行结构化描述。本文根据微博网络的用户结构关系，并利用Petri网的相关理论，形式化解释和定义信息传播基本对象，从而更加直接描述了微博网络中的转发、评论、回复等多种用户行为。在此基础上，本文利用Petri网能够描述信息流动问题的特征，结合颜色Petri网和时延Petri网，从Petri网系统的角度表示信息动态传播路径，并研究网络的动态性质和传播条件，使得信息传播模型更加真实地模拟信息传播情况。最后本文分析信息传播算例和新浪微博真实数据实验，验证了模型的有效性和可行性，为舆情态势分析以及用户行为的研究提供帮助和支持，同时也为其它社交网络信息传播的用户行为描述提供了新的思路。     

乡村振兴视域中的农民主体作用、制约因素及路径选择——基于湖南岳阳乡村的调查与思考

农民是农业和农村的主体,也是乡村振兴的内生因素,发挥农民主体作用对实施乡村振兴战略意义重大。当前农民对乡村振兴关注度和支持度较高,农民的主体作用发挥成为乡村振兴的根本动力。但现实中,农民主体作用也受到诸如农业综合效益较低、农民自身思想文化和能力素质不高、管理机制滞后及基础条件薄弱等多方面的因素制约,需要党委、政府综合施策,采取完善乡村治理、健全政策扶持、建立引导机制、补齐短板缺陷、加强培育培训等一系列政策措施,尊重、引导、激励和支持农民自我管理、自我发展,激发农民的主动性、积极性、创造性。     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

社会转型与观念变迁--以“道德缺失”为中心的考察

尽管“道德缺失”是转型期中国一个不容忽视的社会问题，但当代的“道德缺失”现象并非严重到了危机阶段，中国古代也不是“道德天堂”。今天的道德困境可以归因于社会环境的巨大变化。这种问题的解决，需依靠有效的维护机制作为保障。落实到根本，还是要大力发展经济，建设市民社会。     

Having it all overseas: Aid workers and the international division of reproductive labour

This article examines the dynamics of power and privilege at work in international development through the prism of domestic service for expat aid workers in developing countries. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork amid aid workers and their domestic staff in Dakar, Senegal, I argue that access to affordable care work greatly enhances the lives of women who work overseas in development. The postcolonial underdevelopment and poverty that aid work addresses is paradoxically critical to the aid workers' own access to affordable care, family balance and the means to do their jobs. I put this insight into the larger scholarly conversation about domestic work and global inequality, including on the Global Care Chain.     

页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制思考

目前，我国在页岩气开发的环境保护方面存在着大量的法律空白，往往只能参照环境保护法和矿产资源法中的相关规定进行规制，无法有效解决页岩气开发暴露出来的环境问题。页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，核心目的就是解决当前页岩气开发中的环境风险，促进页岩气开发与环境保护相协调，实现能源开发的可持续发展。在页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制方面，英美两国已经探索出一些经验和制度。积极借鉴国外有益经验，努力改进和完善我国应对页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，对实现我国页岩气开采的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益三者的统一具有重要的现实意义。     

Family Therapy and the Pedagogy of the Oppressed: Therapeutic Use of Songs in Apartheid South Africa

A central issue for family therapy is the critical question of how to define its role in influencing social change. Family therapy has tended to focus on how to liberate and empower individual clients, not communities, from the travails of tradition. This article highlights social change mechanisms implemented by the oppressed majority in South Africa during the apartheid period. It draws inspiration from the pedagogy of the oppressed articulated by Steve Biko and other members of his generation. This enabled the Black majority in South Africa ‘to name their world by reflecting on their conditions, imagining a better world, and then taking action to create it’ (Freire, 1968, p. 253) through the use of revolutionary songs that resulted in the collapse of the cruel apartheid system. The implications for family therapy are discussed.     

进化论思潮与唯物史观的传播——近代中国两大思想关系刍议

进化论思想与唯物史观同为近代中国影响广泛的思想。二者的传入时间接近，并且都经历了中国化的过程。随着进化论思想在现代遭到了越来越多的批判和质疑，唯物史观早期传播和发展的历程也经历了重新的审视。文章从近代思想史发展的事实出发，重新厘清两种思想的关系，并具体论证马克思的唯物史观能否从广义上归结为一种进化论的思想，以及进化论思想在中国是否经历了一个向唯物史观转变的历程。