Ethiopia's developmental state: A building stability framework assessment

Ethiopia has been lauded for its economic growth and progress in human development indicators. For some, that success is rooted in the developmental state approach advocated by the government. For others, the theory of the developmental state and the practice in Ethiopia were often at odds. Up until 2018, ideas that challenged the state and its approaches were not welcome, and politicians, academics and journalists were jailed for expressing alternative views. However, this appears to have changed, and in June 2018 the Deputy Prime Minister called for debate on the developmental state model. This article explores Ethiopia's developmental state model using the building stability framework, analysing its ability to establish fair power structures, foster inclusive economic growth, develop conflict‐resolution mechanisms, create effective and legitimate institutions, and enable a supportive regional environment. We find the developmental state was effective in a number of ways, but that this modality of governance appears to have passed its peak of securing advantage in Ethiopia. A shift from the developmental state to developmental democracy appears to be underway. Decision‐making and economic policies need to align with this change.     

生产者货币计价决定因素的实证研究

利用12个发达国家和发展中国家的非平衡面板样本数据,对微观、宏观和其他因素对生产者货币计价(PCP)的影响进行实证研究,指出经济规模、市场份额、金融市场的发达程度、币值的对内稳定性和产品差异化程度是最主要的影响因素,而出口商的谈判能力、币值的对外稳定性等因素也对PCP的选择有一定影响。根据实证检验结果,对人民币作为贸易计价货币的条件进行评估,发现其优势在于我国的经济规模、出口商的市场份额及其谈判能力以及人民币汇率的相对稳定性; 劣势在于相对落后的金融市场、不可预期性较大的通货膨胀水平以及产品的差异化程度。     

Changes in risky gambling prevalence among a New Zealand population cohort

Evidence suggests that problem gambling is an unstable state where gamblers move into and out of risk over time. This article looks at longitudinal changes in risky gambling and the factors associated with an increased risk (measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) in the current New Zealand context, which has experienced a doubling of the electronic gaming machine (EGM) market over the last two decades. Respondents from a nationally representative baseline sample (n = 2672) were recontacted two years later to assess changes in gambling behaviours. Among the 901 respondents reached at follow-up, average gambling risk increased over time, and the prevalence of those who had at least some level of gambling risk (i.e. low-risk or greater) more than doubled (from 4.7% to 12.4%). The majority (80.2%) of those who were at risk at follow-up had not been at risk at baseline. Multivariate linear regression analyses show that the predictors of low to moderate increased risk include Pacific ethnicity; high neighbourhood deprivation status; baseline frequent, continuous gambler type; baseline PGSI status; and playing EGMs. These findings highlight the need to develop theories of gambling addiction trajectories and to identify the earliest point along the trajectory where public health interventions should occur.     

款词文化超稳定性成因探析

“款词文化超稳定性”的成因直接受侗族家族制度、生态环境、社会政治环境、语言特殊性及其生产、生活方式等因素的共同影响.     

Pre‐procreative ages in population stability and cyclicity

Age‐specific models of population renewal (with and without feedback) which imply convergence to a stable state for some levels of fertility or feedback may imply the presence of long‐term cycling around a constant or exponentially changing equilibrium for other levels of fertility or feedback. The switch from one regime to the other is a “bifurcation.”; The conditions for bifurcation involve the roots of an analogue of Lotka's Equation.

Typically bifurcation is induced by raising the strength of feedback or the level of fertility. It has been known since the early 1980s, however, that this is sometimes impossible. It is sometimes impossible even with the linear renewal equation itself and with the most basic of non‐linear models, Lee's cohort feedback model.

Here it is proved that this typical route to bifurcation does not fail for these basic models in the presence of a condition which always holds for realistic applications with higher organisms: the existence of a span of ages before the onset of fertility.

Specifically, a strictly positive lower bound on ages of procreation is proved to be sufficient to guarantee the existence of a rescaling of Lotka's Equation for which the real part of some complex root vanishes. This result holds for absolutely Lebesgue‐integrable (signed) net maternity functions on the positive real line and for absolutely summable (signed) net maternities on the positive integers.

It follows that Coale's rescaling device for the analysis of approach to stability in stable population theory can be implemented for all realistic human net maternity schedules. It also follows that the many special cases of the cohort feedback model throughout population biology will all generate persistent cycling instead of stability if feedback is sufficiently strong.     

试论邓小平关于"发展"与"稳定"的思想

邓小平在综览当代世界政治经济形势,深刻反思近百年来特别是最近几十年来中国社会发展的曲折历程的基础上,提出了独具特色的关于社会"发展"与"稳定"的思想,以及这一思想付诸实现的具体措施."发展"与"稳定"思想具有动态平衡性.     

Efficiency or Competition? A Structural Econometric Analysis of Canada's AWS Auction and the Set‐Aside Provision

In 2008, Industry Canada auctioned 105 MHz of spectrum to a group of bidders that included incumbents and potential new entrants into the Canadian mobile phone market, raising $4.25 billion. In an effort to promote new entry, 40 MHz of spectrum was set‐aside for new entrants. In order to estimate the implicit cost of the set‐aside provision, we estimate the parameters of the bidders' profit function via a maximum match estimator based on the notion of pairwise stability in matches. We find that all telecommunications firms valued both geographic complementarities across auction licenses as well as absolute spectrum. Under a reasonable alternative scenario, our results indicate that the set‐aside led to a total profit loss of approximately 10%.     

契约型农产品渠道中专有资产投入、人际信任与关系稳定

文章探讨了收购商与农户构成的契约型农产品渠道关系中,收购商与农户双方的专有资产投入对农户信任的影响,以及农户信任对关系稳定性的影响作用.实证研究发现,收购商专有资产投入会促进农户信任,而农户专有资产投入会强化上述关系;同时,农户信任会提升其续约意愿,降低其违约倾向.此外,政府支持会强化农户信任对其续约意愿的正向影响,但会削弱农户信任对其违约倾向的负向影响.研究结论拓展了传统渠道中专有资产投入对信任影响的适用范围,指出了双方锁定的渠道关系对信任的重要作用,为农产品渠道中契约稳定性的研究提供了新视角.研究还发现,政府支持对提高契约型农产品渠道关系稳定性具有重要作用,这对制定契约型农产品渠道的管理政策具有一定的启发意义.     

一类含有随机参数的混沌系统的Hopf分岔研究

文章选取随机变量为系统的随机变量研究含有随机参数混沌系统的Hopf分岔,利用Chebyshev正交多项式逼近理论将含有随机变量的系统转化为等价的确定性系统,通过Hopf分岔定理和Lyapunov系数讨论了随机参数系统的Hopf分岔及稳定性,发现随机系统的渐进稳定性参数区间大小不仅和确定性参数有关,还与随机参数有非常密切的关系.     

土地股份合作社内部能形成利益联结机制吗？

土地股份合作社在促进资本与农地结合,实现小农户与现代农业衔接上具有独特优势。通过对普通社员与核心社员在土地股份合作社不同发展阶段的可选策略的讨论,分析合作社不同发展阶段利益联结机制的特征,并对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市克山县仁发合作社的利益联结机制进行案例研究后提出:土地股份合作社坚持“退社自由”原则有利于保护普通社员的基本权益,但不利于在合作社内部形成“风险共担”机制,要在保证普通社员基本权益的同时建立“利益共享、风险共担”的利益联结机制,应该充分利用计提公积金这一手段,不允许社员退社时退回公积金或许是有利于土地股份合作社内部形成“风险共担”机制的一个可尝试的方法。