心灵的失落与追寻——简论汉末男性诗人的女性同构心理

汉末男性诗人以女性为情感载体来抒写自我生命痛苦的写作用意,应与他们的处境和心态密切相关。在混乱的政局中经历了期盼、失望、绝望的心路历程之后,他们的心态发生了很大变化,具有与女性心理同构的新特点。这恰恰彰显了汉末男性诗人摆脱心灵困境时的自我突围意识。     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Test for homogeneity in Hardy–Weinberg normal mixture model

The phenotype of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) is often modeled by a finite mixture of normal distributions. If the QTL effect depends on the number of copies of a specific allele one carries, then the mixture model has three components. In this case, the mixing proportions have a binomial structure according to the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In the search for QTL, a significance test of homogeneity against the Hardy–Weinberg normal mixture model alternative is an important first step. The LOD score method, a likelihood ratio test used in genetics, is a favored choice. However, there is not yet a general theory for the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic in the presence of unknown variance. This paper derives the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic, which can be described by the supremum of a quadratic form of a Gaussian process. Further, the result implies that the distribution of the modified likelihood ratio statistic is well approximated by a chi-squared distribution. Simulation results show that the approximation has satisfactory precision for the cases considered. We also give a real-data example.     

健全国有企业人才保留机制的途径

通过对国有企业人才流失现状的分析,阐述了国有企业留住人才的必要性,提出了健全国有企业人才保留机制的途径一是建立能充分体现人才价值、有竞争力的薪酬机制;二是建立多层次、多内容的人才激励机制;三是建立科学合理的人才培训开发机制;四是创造优秀的企业文化环境.     

盛衰皆因儒——元杂剧命运的一种解读

元杂剧在经历了短暂的繁盛之后悄然衰微,其繁盛有着文人儒士的参与之功.元初封建宗法制度的失承及儒家思想的失落形成了相对的自由环境,而其后理学的复归和统治体系的确立,反向构成元杂剧发展的桎梏.儒生及儒家思想的沉浮,对文学艺术发展的影响永远是一个复杂而值得探讨的问题.     

战国末期的社会转型与儒家的理论变迁--荀子关于大一统王权政治的构想

荀子关于大一统王权政治的构想反映了儒家学说为适应战国末期的社会转型而发生的理论变迁。荀子提出了礼法互补、王霸并用的系统理论,为大一统王权政治提供了最佳的治国模式。关于大一统王权政治的制度建设,荀子论述了他的王政和王制的思想。荀子主张尊君,以树立和维护君主的权威,同时又主张以儒家的道统与民本思想为主,建立起对君主的权力与意志的制约机制。     

论政治运行的协调稳定机制

政治运行过程由政治决策、政治执行、政治协调、政治参与、政治监督等环节组成,可能出现良性、中性或恶性三种不同的结果状态。政治良性运行即政治的协调稳定发展。实现政治的协调稳定发展,社会必须为之提供必要的外部保障,但最根本的途径是要加强政治运行过程各环节的综合建设。     

美国期刊业对我国期刊的启示

美国期刊业的基本特征可以归纳为:(1)集团化规模庞大;(2)塑造品牌,建立核心竞争力;(3)高度重视人力资源;(4)发行量决定广告收入。针对我国期刊业的现状与不足,通过中美两国期刊的比较研究,指出我国期刊在新形势下快速发展应借鉴之处和应对之策。     

失独家庭有限代孕权利的国家保障

我国失独家庭数量甚为庞大，其特殊保障问题已为社会关注热点，尤其是最为突出的再生育问题。由于失独家庭大都丧失生育能力，代孕乃是其实现再生育的主要途径。基于失独家庭的特殊性，对其有限开放代孕并不违反伦理道德，在法理和情理上也均具有合理性，且失独家庭因遵守国家计划生育政策而承受了失独的不利后果，故其选择代孕方式实现再生育的行为应当获得国家保障。国家不仅应当通过代孕类型、代孕条件、代孕程序等方面的制度构建来保障代孕的有序运行，还应通过扶助模式、扶助资金、扶助标准等方面的制度构建来对失独家庭代孕予以必要救助。     

密度分布非均匀的反馈控制Logistic单种群模型平衡态的稳定性

本文对种群密度在非均匀分布情形下,考虑了具反馈控制的滞后 Logistic 生态模型平衡位置的稳定性;分别给出了在常时滞和弱连续时滞以及强连续时滞情况下的稳定性条件;其结果是对 Gopalsamy 在密度均匀分布情形下相应结果的推广.