A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

制度风险的法律维度: 突破非物质文化遗产保护的瓶颈

以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。     

从《了凡四训》到《训儿俗说》——关于袁了凡及其家风家训的思想史考察

袁了凡（袁黄）以其《了凡四训》闻名于世，该书亦被当作训子家书。其实，了凡所作家训并非《了凡四训》，而是《训儿俗说》。作为王龙溪（王畿）的及门弟子，了凡在思想上是阳明后学的一分子，其人生轨迹属于典型的儒家士大夫，其日常修持及著述呈现三教汇通的思想特色。了凡家风淳朴，家学深厚，以儒为宗，兼收并蓄，强调道德主义，注重积德行善，具有出世情怀，对其人格产生深刻影响。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

朱熹和孟子解读舜之“怨慕”的不同逻辑

对于舜之“怨慕”,朱熹作出了不同于孟子的解读。这是基于心学、理学内在逻辑的不同。孟子作为私学之儒,和孔子一样,是主张士君子的阳刚人格的,并且从性向善的人性论出发,协调义与利、公与私的关系,而以君臣父子关系都属对待关系;依此,将舜之“怨慕”解读为舜对父母的既怨又慕。朱熹则作为官学之儒,以所谓“气质之性”协调理学先驱荀子的性向恶论,以二歧化思维把天地之性、天理绝对化,以公去私,视君臣父子关系则为下对上的绝对服从关系;依此解读,舜之“怨”只能是自怨。     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

论改善型民生

根据支撑基础、责任负担、保障水平以及民众需求等维度，可以把民生保障划分为托底型、基本型、改善型以及富裕型等四种类型。改善型民生是经济社会发展到一定阶段的产物，也是国家治理体系与治理能力现代化的客观要求。它是指通过各类民生项目的安排及民生待遇优化以促进民众生活得到持续改善、社会发展水平得到提升的一种制度类型，是民生项目更加齐全、内容更为完善、治理水平更高、使民众各按其分的民生模式，是人们的日常生活与服务消费支出总额持续增长以便能够提升生活水平的民生类型，是那种不断满足人的需要特别是较高层次需要的模式类型，也是更有助于形成社会结构稳定、国家长治久安的民生制度类型，因而具有综合性、完善性、激励性以及发展性等特点。这要求我们优化民生类型设计及民生投入结构，补齐改善型民生短板，营造良好社会秩序，扎实推进国家治理体系及治理能力现代化建设。     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.