A user’s guide to Lisbon: mobilities,spatial apprenticeship and migrant urban integration*

This paper engages with the ‘mobility turn’ scholarship in order to provide tools for the study of migrants’ integration to urban space. The analysis of urban mobilities draws attention to the practical know-how that underlies mobility practices. I argue that migrants’ urban apprenticeship – that is, the ways migrants learn (to use) city spaces – shape their access to urban resources and their participation in urban life. Based on fieldwork conducted in Lisbon, Portugal, I explore how migrants’ urban knowledges play out in their everyday practices and resonate with broader concerns over migrant integration.     

How publics react to situational and renewing organizational responses across crises: Examining SCCT and DOR in social-mediated crises

The prevalence of social media among networked publics calls for more research regarding how organizations can conduct effective crisis communication on social networking sites. Based on the situational crisis communication theory (SCCT) and the discourse of renewal (DOR) theory, this study examined how social media publics’ sentiments were affected by situational and renewing organizational responses in various clusters of crises. Twitter data of six crises representing three crisis clusters varying in the responsibility attribution (i.e., ambiguous, accidental, and preventable) were collected. We conducted a content analysis on organizations’ official tweets during crises (N = 59) and sentiment analysis on publics’ replies on Twitter (N = 4,340). The results showed that publics’ positive sentiments toward organizations were affected by organizational crisis responses that included instructing information, sympathy, systemic organizational learning, and effective organizational rhetoric. We recommend that crisis managers express sympathy toward publics as well as organizational learning that prevents a crisis from happening again.     

Contribution analysis to analyze the effects of the health impact assessment at the local level: A case of urban revitalization

The health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool used to estimate the potential impact on health of non-health-related proposals prior to implementation. While it is increasingly used in Quebec, Canada, studies have not analyzed its medium-term impacts and potential long-term impacts. We conducted a contribution analysis using in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, as well as documents, observation and images related to HIA in order to analyze its impacts on the revitalization of road infrastructure, parks and green spaces, and residential housing. Our analysis not only reflects on the decision-making process through the adoption and implementation of HIA recommendations, but also on the link between actions implemented in the field and health outcomes.     

收入、预期寿命和社会养老保险收入再分配效应

本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下，通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。首先根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命，再据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。 研究发现职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工，但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别，对低收入参保者予以特别关注。     

一把尺子如何“量到底”:基层治理中的制度硬化——以一个城市更新试点项目为例

城市更新中日益增长的社会压力使基层政府产生制度硬化的需求，但持续的高压体制又使其延续制度弹性的逻辑，两者间张力凸显，构成当前的治理困境。本文通过对一个试点项目中制度硬化实践的观察提出核心问题：权力运作空间如何在日益增强的规范性约束下得以再生产。本案例中，制度硬化被拆分为“结果硬化”和“过程硬化”两部分，前者标识着鲜明的刚性边界，后者则暗中预留出弹性空间。通过外部条件硬化、让步规则硬化、加压底线硬化这三重机制，基层政府在与社会的互动中由表及里地拓展了硬化原则背后的边界，使权力运作空间以一种更为正式化、制度化、组织化的形式不断生产出来，展现出更深层、隐秘的治理技术及国家与社会的相互形塑过程。     

Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

Elementary renewal theorems for widely dependent random variables with applications to precise large deviations

Abstract

On the basis of Wang and Cheng (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 384 (2011) 597–606), this paper further investigates elementary renewal theorems for counting processes generated by random walks with widely orthant dependent increments. The obtained results improve the corresponding ones of the above-mentioned paper mainly in the sense of weakening the moment conditions on the positive parts of the increments. Meanwhile, a revised version of strong law of large numbers for random walks with widely orthant dependent increments is established, which improves Theorem 1.4 of Wang and Cheng (2011 Wang, Y., and D. Cheng. 2011. Basic renewal theorems for a random walk with widely dependent increments and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 384 (2):597–606. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.06.010.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by enlarging the regions of dominating coefficients. Finally, by using the above results, some precise large deviation results for a nonstandard renewal risk model are established, in which the innovations are widely orthant dependent random variables with common heavy tails, and the inter-arrival times are also widely orthant dependent.     

The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.