Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

我国《合同法》应将损害赔偿规定为违约救济的首要方式

对于违约案件 ,法院在选择对受害人的救济方式时 ,应首先考虑损害赔偿 ,还是实际履行 ?西方国家多优先适用损害赔偿 ,因为市场主体的交易目的是赢利 ,而损害赔偿能以最快速度填补受害方的利益 ,且无需违约方配合 ,便于法院执行。但我国现行《合同法》却置实际履行于首位 ,损害赔偿于末位 ,这不符合事理、法理和国际惯例 ,应予修正。     

唐代洛阳的水害

洛阳有伊、洛、、涧、谷等数条河流。唐代东都洛阳水灾频繁发生 ,共 35次之多 ,平均不足 1 0年一次 ,给洛阳城及沿岸造成严重破坏和损失。洛阳水灾发生多为五至八月份。唐代洛阳河流具有明显的季节性 ,雨季流量大 ,便于行舟 ,旱季水少河浅难以行船。针对频发的水灾 ,唐政府采取了一系列救助灾民的措施 ,同时还采取了加固堤坝、疏浚河道等防治措施     

论环境侵权中风险责任的确立

基于环境侵害具有潜伏性和不可逆转性的特点,以损害实际发生为归责前提的过错责任和无过错责任原则在环境侵权中的适用无法体现环境保护“预防为主”的思想。风险责任进入环境侵权归责体系则可以较好地解决这一问题,但风险责任的适用必须解决权利主体和义务主体的特定化问题、损害预防和经济发展的矛盾问题以及风险责任本身在侵权行为法中的立法体例问题。     

个人数据损害的类型及其确定

依告知同意原则构建的个人数据保护制度面临着过度收集、擅自披露与滥用等问题的严重挑战。公权保护路径存在监管力度、范围及效力的局限性,而传统侵权法上的损害观念架空了数据主体的私法救济权利。因此,为保障数字经济的健康发展,必须扩张侵权法上损害的含义。法律上可予赔偿的个人数据损害应延及两类新型损害：数据主体遭受次生损害的风险,以及社会分选歧视、数据监控、自动化决策等造成的人格利益减损。在确定具体赔偿数额时,为解决风险与人格利益减损所产生的经济量化与举证责任之困境,《个人信息保护法》应采用知识产权法中广泛适用的法定赔偿制度。     

从人域契约到自然契约：生态损害赔偿法理要义之证成与功能拓展

生态损害赔偿作为我国环境保护领域最重要的救济性制度之一,其规范的目的、动机、价值、架构等诸构件决定着生境主体及其权利何以成立的基础性承载和充足性解释。生态损害赔偿制度从人域契约的“人域法”层面确立了“生境”的独特价值、独立的存在权和独立的法律人格;从自然契约的“人际法”层面打破了“人域法”理论的封闭体系,将伦理价值植入环境法律规则之中,摆脱了传统“人域法”对非政治化和非伦理化的唯理主义形式的追求和表达,复兴了中华法系“法律应当伦理化而非工具化”的灵魂与传统,确立了法益保护从“人域优先”向“人际优先”法律价值的转换,丰富了环境法理学的秩序观念和学理原则,拓展了传统人域法“主体中心主义”规则体系的界限与边界,为开启我国环境法从“主体模式保护”向“关系模式保护”生态法律观的变革与价值功能的转换提供了超越性的实践尝试与理论探索。     

Inverse gaussian accelerated test models based on cumulative damage

The failure of a system under environmental stress often can be described by an accelerated test model which incorporates the environmental variable L. Here, the failure of such a system at environmental level L is modeled as the first passage of accumulated damage to a critical threshold value. Assuming a discrete additive damage model leads to a Birnbaum–Saunders-type distribution for the failure time which can be closely approximated by an inverse Gaussian-type model. However, if a continuous damage model based on a Gaussian process is assumed, a more general family of inverse Gaussian accelerated test models is obtained. Three sets of failure data are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of this general family.     

非婚同居性行为损害赔偿问题研究

对非婚同居性行为引发的损害赔偿问题，从女性当事人角度可以区分为两种类型，一种是男方以恋爱结婚为由欺骗女方同居的，即女方受蒙蔽同居的；另一种是女方知晓对方感情、身体状况和同居目的而自愿同居的，即双方完全自愿同居的。对前者，男方应对女方损害赔偿结果承担侵权责任；对后者，男方应分担相应的性行为损害后果。     

稠油油藏注蒸汽储层热伤害规律实验研究

针对稠油油藏注蒸汽过程中储层的热伤害问题，研究了稠油油藏热采过程注入的高温、高pH 热流体对储层 渗透率的影响，研究中利用正反向流动实验方法，研究了高温冷凝液注入疏松砂岩后引起的微粒运移作用及储层渗透 率的变化特征；并利用储层矿物的水热反应实验，分析了疏松砂岩油藏注蒸汽开发过程中的微粒运移机理。实验结果 表明，注蒸汽过程中，稠油油藏储层渗透率随温度及pH 值的升高而降低。高速流动的蒸汽及冷凝液造成储层内固相 微粒的运移及滞留，使储层非均质性进一步加剧；同时，高温、高pH 的蒸汽冷凝液既促使黏土矿物发生膨胀又造成储 层矿物发生溶解与转化，从而进一步加剧了稠油油藏疏松砂岩储层的储层热伤害。     

刑事附带民事诉讼的赔偿范围

刑事附带民事诉讼是我国一项特殊且重要的诉讼制度，在司法实践中很有必要。然而，由于立法的不完善且随着人们对诉讼引发的深入研究和我国诉讼法实践的不断发展，此制度的弊端也不断暴露出来，引起了众多的争议。因此，有必要适时地对这一程序制度进行修改，使之具有科学性、合理性和可操作性，以充分体现诉讼效益原则和诉讼经济原则，实现刑事审判理论和实际的有效统一。