参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响——基于CHARLS 2015数据的实证分析

基于CHARLS 2015数据,采用倾向得分匹配法实证分析参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响。研究发现:参加医疗保险对农村居民的日常活动能力和自评健康影响不显著,参加医疗保险对农村居民认知能力具有显著的正向影响。据此提出,应进一步提升社会医疗保险保障水平、扩大社会医疗保险保障范围、促进商业医疗保险有序发展、推进"三医"高效协同联动等,以充分发挥医疗保险的健康保障功能,从而进一步提升参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的正向影响。     

Developing and testing a mobile application for breastfeeding support: The Milky Way application

BackgroundSupporting women to continue breastfeeding is a global challenge. The Milky Way Program is an effective face to face intervention to increase breastfeeding rates up to six months postpartum. The sustainability and access to the Milky Way Program could be enhanced by transforming it into a mobile application allowing women to access relevant information from their own place at a convenient time.AimTo explore the process of transforming the Milky Way Program into an acceptable and usable mobile health application.MethodStakeholders including multidisciplinary researchers and end-users designed the application based on the Milky Way Program by using Persuasive System Design principles. A mixed-method approach was used in the development and evaluation process. Seven women were recruited through convenience sampling to pilot test the application. The women’s feedback was collected through an online survey six weeks after birth and individual interviews at four months postpartum.FindingsWomen in the pilot study reported that the breastfeeding application was well designed, easy to use, interactive, reassuring and evidence-based with credible sources of information.ConclusionThe Persuasive System Design model combined with end-user engagement can feasibly inform the development of an acceptable and usable mobile health application for breastfeeding based on a proven clinical intervention. Further rigorous testing is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the application on breastfeeding initiation and duration.     

An omnibus two-sample test for ranked-set sampling data

We develop an omnibus two-sample test for ranked-set sampling (RSS) data. The test statistic is the conditional probability of seeing the observed sequence of ranks in the combined sample, given the observed sequences within the separate samples. We compare the test to existing tests under perfect rankings, finding that it can outperform existing tests in terms of power, particularly when the set size is large. The test does not maintain its level under imperfect rankings. However, one can create a permutation version of the test that is comparable in power to the basic test under perfect rankings and also maintains its level under imperfect rankings. Both tests extend naturally to judgment post-stratification, unbalanced RSS, and even RSS with multiple set sizes. Interestingly, the tests have no simple random sampling analog.     

考虑进口配额的跨国供应商选择与订单分配模糊多目标优化决策

针对跨国供应商选择与订单分配问题,在考虑进口配额限制和需求不确定的情境下,构建了一个实现核心制造商利润最大化和供应商交货质量最大化的模糊多目标混合整数规划模型。该模型考虑汇率、关税等多个全球因素,采用一种交互式模糊多目标规划方法对模型进行求解,并应用一个算例进行验证。研究表明:1.存在进口配额限制时,制造商会优先考虑低成本高质量的海外供应商,达到配额限制后再选择本土供应商补充剩余订单;2.人民币汇率正向影响制造商海外采购。当人民币汇率上升时,制造商进口成本降低,其会将更多订单分配给海外供应商;3.关税负向影响制造商海外采购。当关税上升时,制造商会减少关税高的供应商的进口数量,选择替代供应商来满足其需求。由此获得如下管理启示:1,制造商企业在选择跨国供应商时,应重点关注本国的进口配额政策,使供应商多样化以减少针对单一供应商配额政策剧烈波动对制造商采购成本和企业利润的不利影响。2.汇率时刻都在变动,制造商企业应关注本国和供应商所在国的长期汇率政策以及短期突发事件对汇率的影响,及时调整订单分配决策。3.制造商企业在选择供应商时,需要对供应商所在国的短期和中长期关税政策进行综合评估。     

医疗信息共享对患者转移数量和服务质量水平影响研究

当前我国医院间存在严重的"信息孤岛"，医院参与医疗信息共享意愿不高，患者的诊疗信息被静态碎片化储存而无法充分有效地利用。考虑到医院进行医疗信息共享将降低患者转移成本，本文构建一个多阶段双寡头动态博弈模型研究医疗信息共享对医院竞争过程中患者转移数量和服务质量水平决策的影响。首先，根据是否存在转移成本，将患者分为新患者和经验性患者，借助Hotelling模型刻画患者的效用函数，分析患者就诊决策。然后，在政府价格规制和不考虑医院利他性情景下，构建了医院累积期望收益目标函数，使用动态规划方法，求解实现医院累积期望收益最大化的服务质量水平，获得了实现患者相互转移且医院在市场中共存的马尔可夫完美均衡。最后，根据医院参与医疗信息共享后患者转移成本降为零，分析与比较信息共享前后患者转移数量和服务质量水平变化。研究发现：在不同医院间本身存在患者转移背景下，医院参与信息共享后，患者转移数量增加但存在一个上限，增加的转移量与患者在医院间的转移成本呈正相关，与初始感知效用的差值范围呈负相关；医院参与信息共享后，均衡状态下的医院服务质量水平高于信息共享前的服务质量水平。因此，在不改变当前医保支付方式下，要加快推进医疗信息共享，政府部门可以根据医院的患者数量和服务质量水平变化对其进行定期补贴，以激励医院积极参与医疗信息共享，本文给出了这个补贴的量化表达。     

变动均值和方差资产配置模型的应用研究

本文在均值-方差模型的基础上，以改善估计误差为主线，选取了10种变动均值-方差的资产配置模型，以等权重策略为基准，运用了确定性等价收益和Alpha值为判断准则，同时考虑了允许卖空限制和非允许卖空的情况，实证研究结果表明：虽然在资本市场中配置模型并不能显著战胜等权重策略，但随着投资范围的扩大，模型开始显现配置效果，尤其在Alpha准则下，变动均值-方差资产配置显著。同时本文还将实证结果和目前我国投资者的实际资产配置情况进行了比较，发现了现实配置结构中的不合理之处，并提出了相应的改善建议。最后对4类常用资产进行了模拟研究，其结果也进一步证实了本文的结论。     

A Leadership Training Group for at Risk Fifth & Seventh Graders: Results from A Brief Strength-Based Group Program

ABSTRACT

An increasing number of youth are exhibiting social, emotional, and behavioral problems that hinder their ability to function at grade level. Subsequently, school mental health services have not been able to address the need for services particularly among students who are minority and poor. A mixed methodology study was conducted to determine the treatment outcomes from a brief strength-based leadership training group for primarily students who are African American and poor. Pre–post scores on three scales and focus group data revealed significant positive changes in regard to internal areas of functioning and social skills, anger management skills, and school attitude. Gender and age significantly impacted outcomes.     

万物互联时代的“算法”崇拜与资源配置变革

随着万物互联时代的来临，人类资源配置将被各种人工智能“算法”①所取代。万物互联产生的数据将成为社会资源的重要形态，也是支撑人工智能“算法”的重要基础。数据资源的安全、所有权归属、开发利用效率以及保密等重要议题，将成为民族学、经济学、社会学和心理学等相关学科关注和研究的新热点。我国是一个统一的多民族国家，如何将丰富的民族多样化资源转化为支持万物互联资源网络协同优化配置人工智能“算法”的数据，需要从民族历史、文化、生物、信息处理技术等相关学科做深入的理论和实证研究。在万物互联时代，因资源配置方式与配置机制发生变革，经济学一般不再直接求解资源最优配置的策略集，更多是从理论和实证方面研究资源配置中人工智能“算法”的构造原理、构造条件与影响因素。万物互联时代，社会和谐秩序的构建，需要政府建立和维护万物互联网络的安全防护体系，并对资源配置中人工智能技术演变路径作规范和指引。     

Best practices for online Canadian prenatal health promotion: A public health approach

Background

Prenatal health promotion provides information regarding pregnancy risks, protective behaviours and clinical and community resources. Typically, women obtain prenatal health information from health care providers, prenatal classes, peers/family, media and increasingly, Internet sites and mobile apps. Barriers to prenatal health promotion and related services include language, rural/remote location, citizenship and disability. Online public health platforms represent the capacity to reach underserved women and can be customised to address the needs of a heterogeneous population of pregnant women.