Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Loss and grief: The experience of transition to residential aged care

There is growing recognition of the experience of non-death-related loss and grief. One unexplored area of non-death-related loss and grief is associated with older people’s transition from home to residential aged care (RAC). This paper reports findings from a qualitative study that explored the experiences of people living in RAC, carer-relatives of people living in RAC and RAC staff. Using theories of loss and grief, the paper identifies features of the transition to RAC that are associated with unresolved loss and maladaptation to changed circumstances, and the types of support that would mitigate these. Using a series of focus groups with both residents and carer-relatives, as well as staff, the study found that residents and their families need more support to negotiate the multiple, often necessarily hasty decisions and bureaucratic requirements associated with transitioning to RAC, while simultaneously experiencing loss and grief. The types of support that families would welcome from service providers include facilitating shared decision making, valuing family and community carer expertise and providing practical information and assistance to fulfil administrative obligations.     

基于债务协商视角的债转股定量研究

针对我国政府、企业和银行等金融机构共同关注的债转股问题，基于债务协商谈判思想，建立部分债务股权互换模型，计算公司证券价格，探讨了债转股对公司价值、破产概率、破产损失成本和资本结构的影响，给出了银行等债权人愿意债转股的充分条件。结果表明：在事先破产清算协议贷款下，事后全部债转股总能提高公司股权价值，但并不一定能提高债券价值。只有其协商谈判能力满足一定条件，公司债权人才愿意事后选择债转股，实现帕累托改进、提高社会福利水平。其次，在公司股东协商谈判能力的一定范围内，部分债转股能提高公司价值，其最优转股债息比例随着公司资产风险的增大而增加。再次，债转股能降低公司破产风险和破产损失成本，但同时也提高了债券风险溢价。最后，随着股东谈判能力增强，最优协商转股债务比例、杠杆率都减少，而债券风险溢价增大。本文所得结果对我国政府、企业和银行如何实施债转股提供理论参考和实践指导。     

Pregnancy after loss during the COVID19 pandemic

BackgroundRapid changes to how maternity health care is delivered has occurred in many countries across the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Maternity care provisions have been challenged attempting to balance the needs and safety of pregnant women and their care providers. Women experiencing a pregnancy after loss (PAL) during these times face particularly difficult circumstances.AimIn this paper we highlight the situation in three high income countries (Australia, Ireland and USA) and point to the need to remember the unique and challenging circumstances of these PAL families. We suggest new practices may be deviating from established evidence-based guidelines and outline the potential ramifications of these changes.FindingsRecommendations for health care providers are suggested to bridge the gap between the necessary safety requirements due to the pandemic, the role of the health care provider, and the needs of families experiencing a pregnancy after loss.DiscussionChanges to practices i.e. limiting the number of antenatal appointments and access to a support person may have detrimental effects on both mother, baby, and their family. However, new guidelines in maternity care practices developed to account for the pandemic have not necessarily considered women experiencing pregnancy after loss.ConclusionBereaved mothers and their families experiencing a pregnancy after loss should continue to be supported during the COVID-19 pandemic to limit unintended consequences.     

高薪养廉的必要性和约束条件分析

文章首先从政府和公务员之间的委托代理关系、人力资本的消耗和补偿、历史经验三个方面论述了高薪养廉的必要性 ;其次 ,分析了高薪养廉的约束条件 ;最后得出结论 ,高薪只是养廉的必要条件 ,但并非充分条件。它的真正实行 ,不但需要生产力发展的经济基础 ,而且还需要收入分配制度的改革、法律监督机制的健全、官僚机构的自身完善     

家用电冰箱节能阀的可行性研究

针对家用电冰箱开、停机过程产生的能量损失，提出了一种节能阀的设想，并采用模拟节能阀系统加以验证，实验结果表明了它的可行性和节能效果。     

无理数e在电路基本理论中出现的物理意义

对无理数e在电路分析中出现的几个典型例子作了分析讨论，明确指出：由1／e决定的特征常数可以在时间分布上和空间分布上，把一个按指数规律非均匀变化的问题，用一个等效的均匀变化的问题来表示；可以反映初始变化率与最终稳定值之间的联系；可以更深刻地反映某些物理过程的本质特征。     

不动产物权变动登记外的公示方式

按现有立法,不动产物权变动的公示方式均是登记。但立法上却有不登记的例外,实践中也有这种需要。如果法律上能够明确,在一定条件下,不动产的物权变动可以以登记外的公示方式存在,它对于保障交易安全、提高交易效率具有较强的现实意义。为了减少负面效应——实施这种公示方式可能出现的问题,如二重买卖、重复抵押等,可采取相应的措施予以解决。     

大学生思想道德建设的理性思考

目前 ,大学生的思想道德主流是积极、健康、向上的 ;但由于当前各种社会思潮和社会上的思想道德观念多元化的影响 ,不可避免地对青年学生的立场和观念产生了冲击。笔者在分析了当前大学生思想道德现状的基础上 ,找出存在的问题 ,并有针对性地提出了一系列的教育对策 ,以期更好地开展思想教育工作。     

增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。