Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑与分析框架

人工智能作为社会发展和技术创新的产物,已经成为新一轮科技创新和产业变革的核心驱动力,正在对世界经济、社会进步和人民生活产生极其深刻的影响。人工智能的商业应用会改变企业内部运作和生产经营的过程,为企业管理带来了诸多挑战和变革机遇。本文结合人工智能的特征与发展趋势,从管理对象、管理属性、管理决策和管理伦理四个方面对人工智能时代企业管理变革的逻辑进行了梳理,得出如下推论:第一,人工智能时代,被管理者将出现越来越多的"人工智能员工",以"社会人"为中心的管理理论和管理手段的适用性降低,如何管理"人工智能员工"以及协调人类员工与智能机器人的关系将对管理者提出挑战;第二,人工智能时代,管理属性不仅包括管理理论的科学性、管理实践的艺术性,还包括管理过程的技术性;第三,人工智能时代,将出现一批优秀的技术管理者,此时,技术管理者指的不是管理技术的人,而是掌握智能技术的管理者;第四,人工智能时代,管理者的决策环境得到优化,管理活动中的决策准则将由"满意决策"过渡为"最优决策";第五,人工智能时代,管理手段的智能化发展可能会加剧管理效率和管理伦理的冲突,管理者必须提升管理道德,经营过程中强化社会责任的履行;第六,随着人工智能技术发展,政府、社会团体和行业协会有必要从政策、法律与行业标准等多个方面构建人工智能发展伦理的多层次约束机制。     

Using Lean Six Sigma to improve mobile order fulfilment process in a telecom service sector

This study proposes and follows a specific and systematic framework for implementing Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology in a telecom company in order to improve customer satisfaction by minimizing the company’s response time to customer requirements. The goal of this study was achieved by utilizing several LSS tools under five phases of the DMAIC methodology. Unlike previous studies in the telecom sector that used only qualitative method, in this study, both qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized to draw meaningful conclusions. As a result of the implementation of the LSS methodology, the average order fulfilment lead time for sales orders (SO) and value-added service (VAS) orders was reduced from 10.3 to 5.9 days and from 1.5 to 0.5 days, respectively. The reduction in lead time resulted in an increase in the sigma level for SO and VAS orders from 0.44 to 1.26 and from 0.73 to 2.66, respectively. These improvements were expected to lead to a financial benefit in savings of over $600,000 per year in operational costs, enhancements to customer experience and an increase in revenue generating opportunities. Moreover, this article enriches the existing literature on the application of LSS concept in the service industry, and helps the company to speed up the response to customer requirements.     

Cooperative innovation through a talent management pool: A qualitative study on coopetition in healthcare

In recent years, the Dutch healthcare sector has been confronted with increased competition. Not only are financial resources scarce, Dutch hospitals also need to compete with other hospitals in the same geographic area to attract and retain talented employees due to considerable labour shortages. However, four hospitals operating in the same region are cooperating to cope with these shortages by developing a joint Talent Management Pool. ‘Coopetiton’ is a concept used for simultaneous cooperation and competition. In this paper, a case study is performed in order to enhance our understanding of coopetition. Among other things, the findings suggest that perceptions of organizational actors on competition differ and might hinder cooperative innovation with competitors, while perceived shared problems and resource constraints stimulate coopetition. We reflect on the current coopetition literature in light of the research findings, which have implications for future research on this topic.     

Capturing the broader picture of value co-creation management

The interactional, interdependent, and dynamic nature of value co-creation has made value management in business relationships a particularly challenging issue for both academicians and practitioners. In addition, studies on this topic have mostly focused on managing value co-creation in isolation from the wider relational context without completely capturing the influence of other value processes on value co-creation. This paper examines the broader picture of value co-creation management by providing a model based on interlinked value processes, namely, value communication, value appropriation, value measurement, and value representation. We adopted a qualitative approach based on 86 interviews with managers of both customer and supplier companies, which operated in different industries. Results showed that the management of value co-creation implies considering complex patterns of interconnections with other value processes. In particular, the study will shed light on the centrality of value appropriation to co-create value and on the importance of value representation to coordinate ideas and enable future co-creation opportunities.     

Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

中国员工企业伦理态度调查及分析

随着中国市场经济的发展,各种企业丑闻的频发引起业界广泛关注,公司治理越来越受到重视。已有的研究表明,员工企业伦理态度关乎员工承诺度和企业竞争力。本文依据个人层次研究理论,采用实证分析方法,选择国内6家企业的员工为调研对象,沿用国外企业伦理个体层次研究中广泛使用的量表"Attitude Towards Business Ethics Questionnaire"(ATBEQ)即企业伦理态度量表,考察当代中国企业员工对企业伦理态度的看法;另外,也分析了不同的工作年限,性别,学历,户口等因素下的企业员工伦理态度差异。调查结果显示:中国员工的企业伦理观存在困惑;大部分中国员工有企业利益相关者意识;教育对企业员工伦理态度存在显著影响。     

Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non‐stationary Volatility

In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non‐stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non‐parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non‐stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non‐parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data‐dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non‐stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non‐stationary volatility. Finite‐sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.     

Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Identity and integration: The roles of relationship and retention in nonprofit mergers

Prior research suggests that nonprofits are flexible and possess multiple identities, although we know less about how transformative changes, such as mergers, shape nonprofit identity. This qualitative study draws upon in‐depth interviews from 13 nonprofit merger cases to explore factors that influence postmerger identity and integration. In particular, we focus on the roles of organizational similarity and relationships, program and personnel retention, and rebranding. Ultimately, we derive a typology of postmerger integration in nonprofits and suggest that postmerger identity may be classified in terms of absorption, preservation, or creation. Implications for nonprofit leaders are discussed.