Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

"黔电送粤"中水电真实移民成本问题研究

现行“黔电送粤”的电价未能反映真实移民成本。理应在厘清真实移民成本主要组成部分的基础上,在谈判和核定电价时加以考虑,促使真实移民成本成为电价的构成要素,这对于解决各族移民的脱贫致富,具有重要意义。     

地区信息化水平的综合评价

本文从信息化的发展入手,阐述了信息化建设及各地区信息化水平评价的重要性,采用多元统计中的主成分分析和主成分回归法,设计一个综合指标用以评估各类地区的信息化水平及其在全国所处的位置,指导各地区的信息化建设。     

梯玛“求子”仪式中的符号化空间——以剪纸“天门”为中心

梯玛仪式“玩菩萨”中的剪纸、绘画使用了大量的形象性符号,包括剪纸天门、天梯、天钱、纸人纸伞、穿衣儿粑粑、神案等,考察其在堂中各自的位置、数量、用色及形式,从艺术形态学和美术人类学的角度出发,结合梯玛自己的解释和在仪式中的具体作用,同时与其他民族民间同类剪纸做比较,对“玩菩萨”仪式中的图像符号做深入的分析。并以“求子”一节为例,分析符号组成空间,符号在特定的空间情境中产生意义,阐明民间神圣符号在组成仪式空间情境中的作用,研究剪纸、绘画等符号在空间情境中意义的转换,体现出民间艺术、民间思维中象征性的特点。     

论虚假广告行政责任的立法完善

虚假广告不但损害消费者的利益,更是一种典型的破坏市场竞争秩序的不正当竞争行为,应当承担行政责任。但是,我国法律对于虚假广告的行政责任立法却存在许多漏洞。为完善虚假广告的行政责任立法,必须解决虚假广告行政责任法律冲突、行政责任的构成要件及行政处罚方式等问题。     

善意取得制度研究

善意取得制度意在对特定类型的非正常的利益变动,做出价值判断,进行利益衡平。那么,善意取得制度对何种类型非正常的利益变动进行衡平?又是如何进行衡平的呢?这就引出了善意取得制度的构成要件及其效力问题。笔者正是从这两方面着手对善意取得制度基础理论和实践应用提供一孔之见。     

被遮蔽的"文革"叙事--从《玫瑰门》评论小史谈起

<玫瑰门>是铁凝20世纪80年代后期一部以"文革"为背景的重要作品,但从<玫瑰门>的评论小史可以看到,80年代后半期以来,评论界对"文革"主题的忽略与遮蔽是普遍的.其中对抽象人性的偏爱,导致评论界对铁凝等一些小说家揭开"文革"政治对人性阴暗面的催生和放大,与人性固有之丑陋的合谋真相这一努力,大多视而不见.这一情形与80年代中期开始形成的当代文学观密不可分,也与"瞻前"而非"顾后"的社会文化心理有着内在的联系.     

高校学报影响因子评析

2001年中国科技论文统计源期刊中,高校学报的影响因子为0.140,低于统计源期刊影响因子平均值0.264,也大大低于国际期刊.高校学报影响因子的影响因素有出版时滞因素、检索系统因素、学科因素、语种因素、政策导向因素和科技水平因素等.影响因子是评价学报质量的重要指标,但不是唯一的衡量指标.提高学报影响因子的措施有组约优质稿件,注意政策导向,减少出版时滞,降低语种影响和调整学报结构.     

加强管理提高毕业设计(论文)质量

为提高学生毕业设计 (论文 )质量 ,在管理方面采取了一系列措施 :完善管理制度 ,注重质量控制 ,重视选题质量 ,加强教师指导 ,严格答辩要求 ,科学评定成绩 ,评选优秀设计 (论文 )。     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.