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1.
文章首先运用归纳法,提出时间断点回归的概念内涵和基本模型,并按"准随机实验"标准分析其存在的原理缺陷。然后通过梳理国外相关前沿成果,总结出时间断点回归有别于传统计量操作的方面:在适用性判断上,强调内生分组问题的理论分析和协变量连续性的提前估计;在稳定性检验上,包含更换变量指标等正向思路、对照组检验等反向思路、时间序列特征处理和其他非断点回归方法。最后,绘制时间断点回归的估计流程图,主要涉及适用性检验、处理效应的初步判定、模型构建与估计和稳健性检验四个部分。  相似文献   
2.
随着人类文明的进步、社会的发展以及信息技术的普及,教育时间和空间得到迅速拓展。教育时空拓展正如一把双刃剑,给教育活动的实施带来机遇的同时也带来了挑战。教师作为教育活动的主要组织者和实施者,在享受机遇的同时也要迎接教育时空拓展所带来的挑战。通过分析教育时空拓展的内涵与表征,发现教师专业成长正处在社会化、终身化与数字化的发展大潮中,因此教师要充分利用好教育时空拓展带来的机遇,同时慎重应对由此面临的挑战,不断提高应变能力,以促进教师专业成长和教育事业的发展。  相似文献   
3.
文章基于2000—2016年重庆37个县(区)面板数据,使用序列DEA方法测算了重庆农业全要素生产率变动,在此基础上探讨了重庆农业全要素生产率增长的时间演变,并从理论和实证层面系统考察了城镇化和工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。结果表明:首先,2000—2016年间重庆市农业全要素生产率呈上升趋势,2007年后重庆市农业全要素生产率增长更为明显,并且重庆市各地区呈现出明显的空间不平衡性。其次,动态面板模型的实证结果表明城镇化对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著正向影响,工业化对农业全要素生产率增长也具有显著正向影响。最后,研究还发现基础设施、教育水平以及金融发展程度对农业全要素生产率增长均具有显著正向影响,而产业结构对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著负向影响。  相似文献   
4.
This article explores what we refer to as norm-stimuli-state discrepancies, which are disparities between people's physical-emotional responses to emotional cues and the normative meanings of those cues. Drawing on forty qualitative interviews and participant observation research at support groups, we show that people with anxiety disorders describe two forms of norm-stimuli-state discrepancies. The first form involves discrepancies of type, in which people label fearful emotional states as deviant for being caused by the “wrong” stimuli. The second involves discrepancies of intensity, in which people label fearful states as deviant for involving feelings or displays of “too much” anxiety in response to an “appropriate” stimuli. The article further addresses the role of stimuli in prompting treatment seeking. Unexpected and intense emotional distress in combination with the falling away of external cues—which we refer to as “stimuli-less fear”—serve as a critical juncture on the path to an anxiety disorder diagnosis.  相似文献   
5.
Although the rate of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of child maltreatment is high, individuals differ in symptom severity and many do not experience clinically significant levels of psychopathology. The present study tested the indirect effects of child maltreatment severity on adult PTSD, suicidal ideations, and alcohol dependence via anxiety sensitivity. A sample of 336 participants (mean age of 22.81 years, SD = 8.93; 70.2% female) completed an online survey of child abuse and neglect, anxiety sensitivity, PTSD symptom severity, suicidal ideation severity, and alcohol dependence severity. The results revealed significant indirect effects of child maltreatment on PTSD symptom severity through cognitive and social concerns, but not physical concerns. No direct or indirect effects were demonstrated for suicidal ideations or alcohol dependence severity. These findings elucidate mechanisms in the robust relationship between child maltreatment and adult PTSD symptoms and can potentially inform future research on mechanisms of change in psychotherapy.  相似文献   
6.
Availability analysis is an important issue in many practical fields. This paper investigates the availability for general repairable systems with repair time threshold. Based on practical applications, a repair time threshold is introduced. If the period of a repair is less than a predefined time threshold, then the system may be considered as working during this period, i.e., the effect of the repair could be neglected. Otherwise, if the period of a repair is longer than the given threshold, then the system is considered as working from the beginning of the system failure until the repair time exceeding the threshold, i.e., the time point of the system down could be delayed. We consider both constant and random repair time threshold. This paper valuates the user-perceived availability, when the user does not experience any service interruption because the duration of repair is too short. The results can be applied in reliability engineering, queueing theory and many other fields. A numerical example for ventilator system is presented to demonstrate the application of the developed approach.  相似文献   
7.
We propose a thresholding generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for misspecified time series moment condition models. This estimator has the following oracle property: its asymptotic behavior is the same as of any efficient GMM estimator obtained under the a priori information that the true model were known. We propose data adaptive selection methods for thresholding parameter using multiple testing procedures. We determine the limiting null distributions of classical parameter tests and show the consistency of the corresponding block-bootstrap tests used in conjunction with thresholding GMM inference. We present the results of a simulation study for a misspecified instrumental variable regression model and for a vector autoregressive model with measurement error. We illustrate an application of the proposed methodology to data analysis of a real-world dataset.  相似文献   
8.
EEG microstate analysis investigates the collection of distinct temporal blocks that characterize the electrical activity of the brain. Brain activity within each microstate is stable, but activity switches rapidly between different microstates in a nonrandom way. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that concurrently estimates the number of microstates and their underlying behaviour. We use a Markov switching vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, where a hidden Markov model (HMM) controls the nonrandom state switching dynamics of the EEG activity and a VAR model defines the behaviour of all time points within a given state. We analyze the resting‐state EEG data from twin pairs collected through the Minnesota Twin Family Study, consisting of 70 epochs per participant, where each epoch corresponds to 2 s of EEG data. We fit our model at the twin pair level, sharing information within epochs from the same participant and within epochs from the same twin pair. We capture within twin‐pair similarity, using an Indian buffet process, to consider an infinite library of microstates, allowing each participant to select a finite number of states from this library. The state spaces of highly similar twins may completely overlap while dissimilar twins could select distinct state spaces. In this way, our Bayesian nonparametric model defines a sparse set of states that describe the EEG data. All epochs from a single participant use the same set of states and are assumed to adhere to the same state switching dynamics in the HMM model, enforcing within‐participant similarity.  相似文献   
9.
在资源共享时代背景下,跨区域就医可以很好地解决患者日益增长的就医需求与医疗资源紧张的矛盾。本论文以医疗联盟为研究对象,在关键医疗资源共享的前提下,通过患者跨区域就医实现就医诊断延误最小化,以满足患者就医需求。本研究同时考虑了患者跨区域交通时间与基于患者诊断类型的设备转换时间,以最小化患者就医总延迟为目标,分配患者就诊医院及优化患者就诊/检查顺序。针对该问题,论文首次提出以最早交货期原则(EDD rule)为基础,以患者再分配为主导的EDD-ReAss1和EDD-ReAss2启发式算法,结合局部搜索算法以进一步提高就医调度方案的质量,缩短患者诊断/检查等待时间。实验结果表明,新启发式算法EDD-ReAss1和EDD-ReAss2算法性能显著好于EDD,SPT和LPT等调度规则;在较短运算时间内Swap局部搜索算法性能最优。  相似文献   
10.
采用赵婷婷等人修订的《亲子关系调查问卷》和Spence学前儿童焦虑量表,对沈阳市、辽阳市、郑州市三座城市的普通幼儿园344名小班幼儿的亲子关系与其焦虑的关系进行了调查测量研究,主要发现:1)小班幼儿亲子关系发展不存在显著的性别差异;而独生子女和非独生子女在亲子关系中亲密性这一维度上呈显著性差异,即独生子女的得分较高。2)幼儿焦虑中的分离焦虑这一维度存在着显著的性别差异,即女孩得分显著高于男孩;独生子女与非独生子女在强迫冲动障碍这一维度上呈显著性差异,即独生子女得分较高。3)亲子关系中要求性、反应性和亲密性因子与幼儿焦虑总分呈显著相关,其亲密性对幼儿焦虑有极其显著的正向预测作用。  相似文献   
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