How do policy levers shape the quality of a national health system?

Poor quality of care may have a detrimental effect on access and take-up and can become a serious barrier to the universality of health services. This consideration is of particular interest in view of the fact that health systems in many countries must address a growing public-sector deficit and respond to increasing pressures due to COVID-19 and aging population, among other factors. In line with a rapidly emerging literature, we focus on patient satisfaction as a proxy for quality of health care. Drawing on rich longitudinal and cross-sectional data for Spain and multilevel estimation techniques, we show that in addition to individual level differences, policy levers (such as public health spending and the patient-doctor ratio, in particular) exert a considerable influence on the quality of a health care system. Our results suggest that policymakers seeking to enhance the quality of care should be cautious when compromising the level of health resources, and in particular, health personnel, as a response to economic downturns in a sector that traditionally had insufficient human resources in many countries, which have become even more evident in the light of the current health crisis. Additionally, we provide evidence that the increasing reliance on the private health sector may be indicative of inefficiencies in the public system and/or the existence of features of private insurance which are deemed important by patients.     

人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

类型化视域下自然保护地立法的制度建构

自然保护地在维持生态平衡,实现生态系统服务功能中可以发挥重要作用,但不同类型自然保护地的主导生态系统服务功能供给存在一定差异.《自然保护地法》立法工作须依赖理论上对自然保护地的类型化,并在此基础上建构对应型的规划建设、运营管理等方面的具体制度.因此,基于生态系统服务功能供给的空间差异,可以将当前相互重叠、缺乏体系的自然保护地划分为国家公园、自然保护区、自然公园、自然保护小区等四种类型,搭建"1部基础法律+4部类型化条例(或法律)"的自然保护地法律体系,并可以通过体系化公法、私法制度工具强化自然保护地的有效治理.     

高校哲学社会科学研究评价的本质要求及其制度建设

建设具有中国特色、中国风格、中国气派的哲学社会科学,一直是我国哲学社会科学繁荣发展的根本目的.提升高校哲学社会科学繁荣发展水平,离不开科学有效的哲学社会科学研究评价.坚持党的领导、"二为"方向和"双百"方针是哲学社会科学繁荣发展的根本保障,坚持"质量为本"和"创新至上"是哲学社会科学繁荣发展的必然要求,坚持科学权威和公开透明是哲学社会科学研究评价的现实需要.结合当前高校哲学社会科学研究评价中"量化评价下数量与质量的关系论辩","学术评价与科研管理评价的边界异化"和"学术权力和行政权力的制度规制"三大问题聚讼,文章建议通过强化学术成果质量保障机制、优化学术共同体工作机制、构建学术争鸣长效机制和完善学术成果转化应用机制等制度建设,推动构建科学权威、公开透明的哲学社会科学研究评价体系,以期进一步改善新时代高校哲学社会科学研究评价工作.     

随机需求环境下联产品系统价格与产量决策研究

基于固定比例生产技术和多产品随机需求的情形,研究了联产品制造商的两阶段产量和价格联合优化模型。通过反向倒推的优化求解,得到了联产品制造商的最优产量和价格决策以及变化规律。同时研究了需求服从均匀分布时,需求波动对均衡的影响。研究结果表明,在订货成本较低和一种产品的需求波动性较大时,当另外一种产品的波动增大,则该产品的最优订货量增大,同时价格下降。借助数值仿真,分析了价格敏感度和产出比例对最优决策和利润的影响。结果表明,在给定一种产品的价格敏感度时,另外一种的价格敏感度越大,那么该产品的价格就越低,制造商的订货量就下降。当一种产品的产出比例固定时,另一种产品的产出比例上升时,则该产品的价格下降,制造商的订货量下降,总利润上升。     

农户地权诉求视角下农地制度的创新

目前我国农户的地权诉求已经发生了很大的变化，即由地权稳定、自主经营向农地资源的优化配置和高效利用转化。这一变化的内在动力是农户急切希望改变承包地过于细碎化以及改善农业生产经营基本条件。考察我国农地制度的发展史可以发现，我国农地制度变迁的基本逻辑就是农户的地权诉求决定农地制度的发展方向，这一点在当下一些地方的农地制度创新试验和经验中再次得到证明。今后我国农地制度创新必须遵循这一逻辑，根据我国农户地权诉求的变化，实施农户自愿前提下的承包地连片重划,争取国家对承包地重划制度的支持,强化农民集体民主决策制度,地方政府也要给予必要的支持。     

Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

丹巴土司制度发展历史考证

丹巴位于“藏彝走廊”的核心区域，其对汉藏民族关系、中央政权与边疆地区的稳定均具有重要影响。自忽必烈时期开始丹巴即开始实行土司制度直至新中国成立，研究丹巴的土司制度发展历史对梳理“藏彝走廊”民族关系及社会发展历史具有重要作用。本文对丹巴土司制度的发展历史进行了考证，并对其境内的四个土司的管辖范围、权力地位进行了梳理，以期对该地区历史发展研究提供一些参考与借鉴。     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.