话语权视阈下双边口译员翻译行为研究

双边口译员的角色或立场描述已从传统观念认为的"隐身""传送带""管道"等转变成"显身""交际促成人""文化斡旋人"等更为宽泛的解释.究其原因,前人所做的研究大都以译员角色为载体,从目的论、话语分析或跨文化交际的角度进行分析.文章则试图以翻译行为为载体,结合口译案例,从话语权的角度对该问题进行阐释,研究结果表明:译员对交际目标的把握是保证话语含意推理正确的关键,其推理结果会产生不同的翻译行为,包括语义行为、语用行为和功能翻译行为.     

Vocational Status,Hukou and Housing Migrants in the New Century: Evidence from a Multi-city Study of Housing Inequality

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.     

Multiple event times in the presence of informative censoring: modeling and analysis by copulas

Motivated by a breast cancer research program, this paper is concerned with the joint survivor function of multiple event times when their observations are subject to informative censoring caused by a terminating event. We formulate the correlation of the multiple event times together with the time to the terminating event by an Archimedean copula to account for the informative censoring. Adapting the widely used two-stage procedure under a copula model, we propose an easy-to-implement pseudo-likelihood based procedure for estimating the model parameters. The approach yields a new estimator for the marginal distribution of a single event time with semicompeting-risks data. We conduct both asymptotics and simulation studies to examine the proposed approach in consistency, efficiency, and robustness. Data from the breast cancer program are employed to illustrate this research.

     

技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

坚守的悲壮情怀与跌宕之姿——试析稼轩词中“白发”意象

南宋词人辛稼轩一生渴望实现抗金救国的理想抱负,可壮志难酬,时不我与,英雄的无尽哀愁叹息尽入其词中.但稼轩词并未终止于低迷徘徊的气韵与无奈消颓的沉吟,他面对无常的命运与有限的时光,最终选择坚守初心,白首相抗,在这挣扎起伏间为我们展现了深沉动人的坚守情怀和欲飞还敛的跌宕之姿.本文尝试从辛稼轩的几阕词中所共有的“白发”意象来分析词人在时光的压力下郁结交织的清愁,展现的对抗与超越的生命态度以及背后更深层次的人性动因和爱国情怀.     

理智与情感:为历史“正名”的方法——从刘保昌长篇小说《楚武王》谈起

历史书写中的“最炫流行风”在今天的文化市场上大行其道——用拆解、谐谑、碎片化、戏拟等方式拉平历史的深度,以“傲慢与偏见”来充抵叙述历史的自信,也经由这种时尚化的叙述使历史以“轻松一刻”的形式实现消费欲望的满足.刘保昌的《楚武王》则疏离“流行前线”,以史料为据,正本清源,守正而出新,为历史“正名”,以彰显历史意识、历史理性的写作姿态,以坚持文学之理想力量的叙事激情,以有文化承担的叙事态度显示出对当代历史小说叙事品格与尊严的坚守.     

论普里什文哲理散文中的生态文学思想与猎人情结

普里什文哲理散文中所具有的预言式生态思想与环保理念备受当代“生态文学”理论家的青睐。但他热衷描写狩猎场景的猎人情结却又遭到新世纪中“生态伦理”理论的诟病。其实从文本的本体性观念来理解，普里什文的诗性自然情怀、生态观念与他的猎人情结并非只有冲突的一面，他所表达出的是人对大自然万物之本能与道义之间的尺度衡量，而这种衡量也可反观当代人与自然万物之间的关系的现状，实际上表达出一种更为深刻的天人关系的批判性。     

A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes

Journal of Population Research - There is an increasing attention on the joint modelling of multiple populations. Populations are related in several ways, such as neighbouring countries, females...     

基本养老服务制度建设的理论阐释和政策框架

随着人口老龄化程度的加深,养老服务已经成为政府和全社会关注的重大民生工程。其中,基本养老服务制度建设成为一个关键议题。文章认为,如果这一关键议题不搞清楚,势必会影响养老服务的路径选择,甚至影响所选择的养老服务的发展路线和发展道路是否顺畅。为此,文章结合已经出台的养老服务政策,首先,从社会政策理论的角度阐明在什么情况下要建立基本养老制度,以及社会福利体制与基本养老服务制度建设的关系;其次,对养老服务制度建设的意识形态理据和中国养老服务模型的选择进行阐述,据此提出混合经济的养老服务模型,认为必须建立基本养老制度,厘清政府与市场之间的关系和界限;再次,提出基本养老服务制度的政策框架。     

1950年代:“本质—特征论”文学定义的形成及影响

1950年代形成了"本质—特征论"的文学定义,即先界定文学的意识形态本质,再界定文学是用形象的方式来反映社会生活、体现意识形态的特征。这一定义的思维方式是先界定事物的普遍性,再界定事物的特殊性,突出事物的普遍性关联,轻视事物的独特性质的揭示,使得文学研究本应着重研究文学的特殊性成为空话,不利于认识文学自身的规律。1980年代的文学审美论试图突破这种定义方式,但1990年代以来,反本质主义的文学语境论再次回到从事物的关联性定义事物的思维老路,文学自身本质问题受到质疑,弱化了文学与审美关联的重要性与必要性。