REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE DYNAMICS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE FOMC

This paper examines the impact of house price gaps in Federal Reserve districts on the voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1978 to 2010. Applying a random effects ordered probit model, we find that a higher regional house price gap significantly increases (decreases) the probability that this district's representative in the FOMC casts interest rate votes in favor of tighter (easier) monetary policy. In addition, our results suggest that Bank presidents react more sensitively to regional house price developments than Board members do. (JEL E31, E58, R31)     

Inference for Epidemics with Three Levels of Mixing: Methodology and Application to a Measles Outbreak

Abstract. A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings according to potentially different rates. For this model, we consider how different kinds of data can be used to estimate the infection rate parameters with a view to understanding what can and cannot be inferred. Among other things we find that temporal data can be of considerable inferential benefit compared with final size data, that the degree of heterogeneity in the data can have a considerable effect on inference for non‐household transmission, and that inferences can be materially different from those obtained from a model with only two levels of mixing. We illustrate our findings by analysing a highly detailed dataset concerning a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

America's Most Important Problem--A Trend Analysis, 1946-1976

Using an extremely rich data series, this paper traces trendsin America's most important problem from 1946 to 1976. Bothlong-term and short-term changes in public concern are charted.Additionally, the problem profiles of major sociodemographicgroups are analyzed. Changes in the problem concerns of thesegroups are also followed across time.     

Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote

The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of hisvote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity isassessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote modelpredicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll,and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.     

The Hidden 25 Percent: An Analysis of Nonresponse on the 1980 General Social Survey

Methods for estimating nonresponse bias are reviewed and severalmethods are tried on the 1980 GSS. The results indicate thatvarious estimating procedures are inappropriate and that eventhe more promising techniques can provide faulty estimates ofnonresponse bias. By its nature, nonresponse bias is very difficultto assess accurately and no simple, certain method exists.     

Recalling Attitudes: An Analysis of Retrospective Questions on the 1982 GSS

Research using the General Social Surveys suggests that retrospectivereporting of attitudes may frequently produce inaccurate distributions.In addition, the evidence also indicates that correlations betweenrecalled attitudes and other items may be distorted.     

The Effects of Group Living in a Residential Home for the Elderly

Summary The group-living system of care is becoming increasingly popularin residential homes for the elderly. This study examined purposefulactivity, as measured by engagement, in one such home beforeand after changeover to group living. It was found that engagementwas significantly increased after the changeover. In addition,life satisfaction was increased and orientation unchanged bythe changeover in a small sample of residents. These resultsare interpreted as supportive for the effectiveness of groupliving.     

Canadians' responses to aboriginal issues: the roles of prejudice, perceived group conflict and economic conservatism

Dane cette communication, les auteurs se servent de trois mesures des préférences en matière de politique gouvernementale pour déterminer les effets des préjugés, de l'ethnocentrisme, du conservatisme éonomique, des perceptions de conflits d'inérêts entre groupes et de l'appréhension d'une menace contre les intérêts personnels Bur lee attitudea des Canadiens à l'égard des autochtones. Lee trois variables dépendantes sont: l'appui à l'autonomie politique, l'appui au statut particulier et le degré de priorité accordé aux préoccupations des autochtones. Lee données d'un éhantillon national aléatoire (N= 1834) ont été analysées à l'aide de régressions multiples et de techniques LISREL. Les principales conclusions sont les suivantes: 1/la variation dans lee réactions des non-autochtones aux préoccupations des autochtones s'explique en grande partie par trois facteurs — les préjugés, le conservatisme économique et la perception d'un conflit d'intérêts de groupe; 2/ les préjugés et la perception d'un conflit d'intérêts se combinent et influent fortement sur les réactions des Canadiens non autochtones; 3/ l'influence de l'ethnocentrisme est tout au plus mineure; 4/ lea indicateurs objectifs (région, situation socio-économique familiale et âge) employés comme mesures indirectee du sentiment que les intérêts personnels sont menacés ont une influence somme toute mineure sur la réaction aux préoccupations des autochtones de la part des Canadiens. La communication se termine par une réflexion sur lee leçons que les dirigeants politiques des autochtones pourraient tirer de l'étude. This paper examines the effects of prejudice, ethnocentrism, economic conservatism, perceived conflict of group interests and perceived personal threat in shaping Canadians' views on three different measures of preferences for government policy in the aboriginal affairs field. Those dependent variables are: support for self-government, support for special status, and level of priority attached to Native issues. Multiple regression analysis and LISREL techniques are applied to data from a 1986 national random sample (N= 1834). The main findings are that: 1/ a moderate to large proportion of the variation in non-aboriginal responses to aboriginal issues can be explained by three factors -prejudice, economic conservatism, and perceived conflict of group interests; 2/ prejudice and perceived conflict interact strongly in influencing non-aboriginal Canadians' responses; 3/ ethnocentrism has a negligible to minor influence; and 4/ objective indicators (region, family SES and age) serving as proxies for perceived personal threat have only minor net effects on how Canadians respond to aboriginal issues. The paper concludes with comments on the relevance of the findings for aboriginal political leaders.