Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

外语能力与科学研究的密切联系——周立伟院士访谈

近日对我国著名电子光学和光电子成像专家周立伟院士进行了访谈。访谈中，周院士首先分享了自己学习英语和俄语的经历，强调了自主学习能力的重要性；其次，周院士详细论述了外语教学，尤其是英语教学的必要性，指出英语能力与科学研究紧密相关，英语教学不可或缺；之后周院士分析了研究生在英语学习和科学研究方面存在的问题，并讨论了大学中开设人文课程的迫切性；最后，周院士对上理工师生提出了建议与期望。     

Leader-member exchange and organizational citizenship behaviors: Contextual effects of leader power distance and group task interdependence

In this paper we explore the context of the relationship between leader-member exchange and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB). We maintain that workgroup leader's power distance and the extent of task interdependence in the group exert cross-level effects on the LMX-OCB relationship. We assert that leader power distance attenuates the relationship between LMX and OCB, and this effect is stronger in workgroups with high degree of task interdependence. Results of hierarchical linear modeling analysis of data gathered from 245 employees nested in 54 workgroups supported our hypotheses. LMX-OCB relationship was weaker in workgroups led by high power distance leaders. Further, the three-way cross-level interaction between LMX, leader power distance and group task interdependence demonstrated that the tendency for LMX to have a stronger positive effect on OCB when leader power distance was low rather than high was more pronounced in high task interdependence teams.     

基于混合加权距离的毕达哥拉斯模糊TOPSIS多属性决策方法研究

针对决策信息为毕达哥拉斯模糊集的多属性决策问题，提出了一种基于混合加权测度的TOPSIS决策方法。在分析了现有距离测度方法不足的基础上，首先给出了一种新的毕达哥拉斯模糊距离测度——毕达哥拉斯模糊有序加权距离（PFOWD），并研究了该测度权重的确定方法；在PFOWD基础上，进一步提出了毕达哥拉斯模糊混合加权距离（PFHWD），同时探讨了其特征和与现有毕达哥拉斯模糊测度的关系；最后提出了一种基于PFHWD测度的毕达哥拉斯模糊TOPSIS多属性方法，并用实例验证了方法的有效性和可行性。     

学习分析视域下S-ISAL在大学英语混合式教学中的构建与评估

学习分析技术在教育教学中的应用，其根本目的是为了构建新的教学法，更新教学与管理的方式。针对高校大学英语线上、线下混合教学无法有机融合的现状，S-ISAL（Space-based Information search and Analysis Learning）应运而生，它是基于网络学习空间的信息搜集与分析的教学模式，将学习分析技术引入大学英语混合式课程中。探究该教学模式在大学英语教学中的适切性和实效性是文章的研究重点，目的是为了实现大学英语线上、线下教学优势互补，为大学生在线英语学习提供更具个性化的学习内容和路径，并提升大学生自适应学习能力和在线学习绩效。     

Validation of the Australian Midwifery Standards Assessment Tool (AMSAT): A tool to assess midwifery competence

Background

There is no current validated clinical assessment tool to measure the attainment of midwifery student competence in the midwifery practice setting. The lack of a valid assessment tool has led to a proliferation of tools and inconsistency in assessment of, and feedback on student learning.

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

Neighborhood change from the bottom Up: What are the determinants of social distance between new and prior residents?

An important source of neighborhood change occurs when there is a turnover in the housing unit due to residential mobility and the new residents differ from the prior residents based on socio-demographic characteristics (what we term social distance). Nonetheless, research has typically not asked which characteristics explain transitions with higher social distance based on a number of demographic dimensions. We explore this question using American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2007, and focus on instances in which the prior household moved out and is replaced by a new household. We focus on four key characteristics for explaining this social distance: the type of housing unit, the age of the housing unit, the length of residence of the exiting household, and the crime and social disorder in the neighborhood. We find that transitions in the oldest housing units and for the longest tenured residents result in the greatest amount of social distance between new and prior residents, implying that these transitions are particularly important for fostering neighborhood socio-demographic change. The results imply micro-mechanisms at the household level that might help explain net change at the neighborhood level.     

The University: An Agent of Social Change?

Can universities be agents of progressive social change? How would we know if a university was acting as an agent of social change? Drawing on four case studies, I raise a number of questions to problematize our understanding of the university as an agent of social change. I outline a number of contributing factors that appear to explain successful cases. I conclude by arguing the relevancy of these cases for larger, and more traditional, sociological projects.     

Challenges to Connecting Sociology and Service Learning

Service-learning programs are not free from challenges brought about by lack of financial support, lack of widespread commitment from professors, community agencies, and recipients of service, and lack of knowledge and insight in students directly involved in such programs. While service-learning initiatives and programs serve positive functions for organizations and individuals, rhetorical accolades for service learning can distort or omit the realities of program implementation and sustained delivery. This paper specifically explores the following challenges connected to service-learning programs: (1) pedagogical difficulties; (2) student limitations; (3) time constraints; and (4) community cooperation.