高校哲学社会科学研究评价的本质要求及其制度建设

建设具有中国特色、中国风格、中国气派的哲学社会科学,一直是我国哲学社会科学繁荣发展的根本目的.提升高校哲学社会科学繁荣发展水平,离不开科学有效的哲学社会科学研究评价.坚持党的领导、"二为"方向和"双百"方针是哲学社会科学繁荣发展的根本保障,坚持"质量为本"和"创新至上"是哲学社会科学繁荣发展的必然要求,坚持科学权威和公开透明是哲学社会科学研究评价的现实需要.结合当前高校哲学社会科学研究评价中"量化评价下数量与质量的关系论辩","学术评价与科研管理评价的边界异化"和"学术权力和行政权力的制度规制"三大问题聚讼,文章建议通过强化学术成果质量保障机制、优化学术共同体工作机制、构建学术争鸣长效机制和完善学术成果转化应用机制等制度建设,推动构建科学权威、公开透明的哲学社会科学研究评价体系,以期进一步改善新时代高校哲学社会科学研究评价工作.     

Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

Modeling spatial overdispersion via the generalized Waring point process

Modeling spatial overdispersion requires point process models with finite‐dimensional distributions that are overdisperse relative to the Poisson distribution. Fitting such models usually heavily relies on the properties of stationarity, ergodicity, and orderliness. In addition, although processes based on negative binomial finite‐dimensional distributions have been widely considered, they typically fail to simultaneously satisfy the three required properties for fitting. Indeed, it has been conjectured by Diggle and Milne that no negative binomial model can satisfy all three properties. In light of this, we change perspective and construct a new process based on a different overdisperse count model, namely, the generalized Waring (GW) distribution. While comparably tractable and flexible to negative binomial processes, the GW process is shown to possess all required properties and additionally span the negative binomial and Poisson processes as limiting cases. In this sense, the GW process provides an approximate resolution to the conundrum highlighted by Diggle and Milne.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Progressive censoring with fixed censoring times

In this paper, we revisit the progressive Type-I censoring scheme as it has originally been introduced by Cohen [Progressively censored samples in life testing. Technometrics. 1963;5(3):327–339]. In fact, original progressive Type-I censoring proceeds as progressive Type-II censoring but with fixed censoring times instead of failure time based censoring times. Apparently, a time truncation has been added to this censoring scheme by interpreting the final censoring time as a termination time. Therefore, not much work has been done on Cohens's original progressive censoring scheme with fixed censoring times. Thus, we discuss distributional results for this scheme and establish exact distributional results in likelihood inference for exponentially distributed lifetimes. In particular, we obtain the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Further, the stochastic monotonicity of the MLE is verified in order to construct exact confidence intervals for both the scale parameter and the reliability.     

What are you thinking? Acculturation as an activating event for negative evaluative beliefs among Latinos/as

Negative evaluative beliefs and other cognitive structures have been tied to psychological distress across various populations but have not been sufficiently incorporated into acculturation models. The current study examines the relationships between acculturation and various activating events and mediating sources of support related to negative evaluative beliefs among people of Mexican descent (N = 319). Overall, model variables explained 26% of the variance in negative evaluative beliefs. Acculturation, marital commitment, and social capital associated with friends were negatively related to negative evaluative beliefs. Conversely, single relationship status, marital reward value, psychosocial stressors, and bridging social capital were positively related, and likely serve as activating events for negative evaluative beliefs. Identifying mechanisms related to psychological distress as well as supportive structures may help in constructing interventions that will address the specific needs of different groups. Future research should continue to explore appraisal and associated beliefs in acculturation models to understand why acculturative experiences may become stressful.     

论政治冲突的功能

政治冲突的功能理论是政治冲突与整合理论的重要组成部分。由于目前对政治冲突与整合理论的研究非常少,所以作为它的重要组成部分的功能理论研究更为鲜见。本文在历史与逻辑相统一的理论框架下,结合前人的相关论述,特别是重点围绕马克思与L·科塞的观点,对政治冲突的功能:负功能和正功能进行了比较系统地分析。     

A NOTE ON EVANESCENT PROCESSES

This note examines the connection between μ-invariant measures for the transition function of a continuous-time Markov chain and those of its q-matrix, Q. The major result establishes a necessary and aufficient condition for a convergent μ-invariant measure for Q to be μ-inhant for the minimal transition function, P, under the assumption that P is honest. This corrects Theorem 6 of Vere-Jones (1969) and the first part of Corollary 1 of Pollett (1986), both of which assert that the above conclusion holds in the absence of this condition. The error was pointed out by E.A. van Doom (1991) and the counterexample which be presented provides the basis for the present arguments. In determining where the error occurred in the original proof, we are able to identify a simple sufficient condition for μ-invariance.     

A role-reversal in the mother-daughter relationship

Psychoanalytic theorists have noted a particular dynamic in the mother-infant relationship in which the emotional needs of the mother predominate. When this situation occurs, the emotional needs of the infant may go unmet, resulting in impaired self-development. Through an integration of the ideas of mainstream psychoanalytic theorists and feminist psychoanalytic thinkers, this paper proposes the idea that, because of the intensity of the mother-daughter relationship, this dynamic may be more prevalent between mothers and daughters than between mothers and sons. A mother-daughter relationship is described in which the mother comes to depend on her daughter for emotional attunement and response, and the mother's selfobject needs predominate. As a consequence, the daughter is unable to develop a cohesive sense of self and experiences difficulty in achieving separation. Two clinical reports are presented to illustrate the way in which this mother-daughter dynamic manifests itself in the patient's life and in the therapeutic relationship. A negative transference dynamic is described resulting from these patient's fear of duplicating their relationship with their mothers in the therapeutic relationship by having to meet the selfobject needs of the therapist.     

虚拟社会与道德构建

随着网络的普及 ,虚拟社会中人们的思想、行为、生存方式都发生了新的变化。虚拟社会具有虚拟性、自由性、开放性、非人性化的特点 ;虚拟社会的自由和民主精神、权利意识和平等意识、自主精神、奉献精神、开放思想为道德建设提供了新的生长点 ,但同时带来了一系列负效应。因此 ,道德建设要采取一系列相应的措施 ,以构造文明虚拟社会