Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?

This paper explores the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in selected 25 OECD countries with annual data for 2005–2016 by considering different real interest rate regimes. A non-dynamic panel threshold model, introduced by Hansen (1999), is employed. The novelty of the empirical findings from the present study is that there exists a non-linear relationship between the budget deficit and the trade balance, which is driven by a critical threshold level in the real interest rates. The findings suggest that twin deficit hypothesis holds only under the low real interest rate regime, that is, rises in budget deficits lead to deteriorations in the trade balance when the real interest rate is below the threshold level. When the high real interest rate (i.e. above-the-threshold) regime is concerned, increasing budget deficits give rise to improvements in the trade balance, a finding consistent with the twin divergence hypothesis. Thus, the effect on the trade balance of an expansionary fiscal policy that worsens the budget balance reverses substantially depending on the threshold level of the real interest rates. The major policy implication of this paper is that the policy makers in the selected OECD countries should pay a greater attention to fiscal discipline in order to prevent the trade balance from worsening, because the majority of the countries fall into the low real interest rate regime over the recent years of the sample period (i.e. between 2010 and 2016).     

Impact of socio-economic infrastructure investments on income inequality in Iran

One of the main subjects, governments have been facing is fair distribution of income, and making effort to improve it. In this study, we evaluated the effects of economic (energy, water, ICT) and social (health, education) infrastructure expenses on income inequality in the Iranian provinces for the period of 2007–2016 by the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) model. The results show that social and economic infrastructures improvements reduce income inequality. However, the magnitude of these effects varies. Investment on education, healthcare, communication technology, energy, and water infrastructures has the greatest impact on income inequality reduction, respectively. Therefore, in order to reduce inequality in deprived areas, combination and optimal allocation of economic and social infrastructures should be considered.     

Methodological considerations in the use of name generators and interpreters

With data from the Clergy Health Initiative Longitudinal Survey, we look for interviewer effects, differences between web and telephone delivery, and panel conditioning bias in an “important matters” name generator and interpreter, replicated from the U.S. General Social Survey. We find evidence of phone interviewers systematically influencing the number of confidants named, we observe that respondents assigned to the web survey reported a larger number of confidants, and we uncover strong support for panel conditioning. We discuss the possible mechanisms behind these observations and conclude with a brief discussion of the implications of our findings for similar studies.     

The effectiveness of apprenticeship training: A within-track comparison of workplace-based and school-based vocational training in Hungary

Although apprenticeship training has been praised for its effectiveness in easing the transition of non-college-bound students from school to work, most studies rely on cross-country or cross-track comparisons. This study compares apprenticeship training students with non-apprentices within educational track in a relatively uncoordinated and decentralized institutional setting. Using a rich database and a unique set of observable individual-level characteristics as well as local labor market fixed effects to control for the potential selection bias, the results show that there are no significant differences in employment opportunities between apprentices and non-apprentices within just a year after graduation. This might be due to the failure of the Hungarian firms to enhance the skills of apprentices and thus increase their chances of entering the labor market compared to their school-trained peers. However, some immediate positive effect of apprenticeship training within sub-populations is apparent, which are likely to be the result of screening.     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型，研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现，随着金融周期所处阶段的变化，金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应，主要体现为如下两点：首先，金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响，但从影响系数值的大小来看，处于膨胀期时最大，是后两者的2倍之多，处于平稳期时最小且并不显著；其次，分区域的稳健性检验表明，金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早，且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明，经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化，金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间，但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性，这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾，对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。     

非线性面板数据聚类方法研究

对于一类变量非线性相关的面板数据,现有的基于线性算法的面板数据聚类方法并不能准确地度量样本间的相似性,且聚类结果的可解释性低。综合考虑变量非线性相关问题及聚类结果可解释性问题,提出一种非线性面板数据的聚类方法,通过非线性核主成分算法实现对样本相似性的测度,并基于混合高斯模型进行样本概率聚类,实证表明该方法的有效性及其对聚类结果的可解释性有所提高。     

财政分权背景下的地方政府预算外收入扩张——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

本文对财政分权背景下我国地方政府预算外收入扩张的原因进行了理论分析,研究发现:地方政府预算外收入与辖区经济发展水平存在显著的负相关关系;与行政事业单位人员规模存在显著的正相关关系;与预算内财政支出存在显著的负相关关系;同时,在预算内财政支出既定时,预算外收入与转移支付规模存在显著的负相关关系。说明了分权改革后地方政府扩张预算外收入一方面在于弥补其财政支出的缺口;另一方面,由于预算外资金的收和支没有完全脱钩,行政事业单位改革的不彻底性,地方政府追求可自由裁量财政资源最大化的偏好等原因,进一步加剧了预算外收入的扩张。