Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

朱熹和孟子解读舜之“怨慕”的不同逻辑

对于舜之“怨慕”,朱熹作出了不同于孟子的解读。这是基于心学、理学内在逻辑的不同。孟子作为私学之儒,和孔子一样,是主张士君子的阳刚人格的,并且从性向善的人性论出发,协调义与利、公与私的关系,而以君臣父子关系都属对待关系;依此,将舜之“怨慕”解读为舜对父母的既怨又慕。朱熹则作为官学之儒,以所谓“气质之性”协调理学先驱荀子的性向恶论,以二歧化思维把天地之性、天理绝对化,以公去私,视君臣父子关系则为下对上的绝对服从关系;依此解读,舜之“怨”只能是自怨。     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

先秦的“法治”思想和实践考量

先秦法家在与儒家“礼治”的争论中提出“法治”思想,并与战国时期富国强兵的国家策略结合,变法图存的“法治”实践此起彼伏。其中最为成功的是秦国的商鞅变法,秦国由此迅速崛起并最终吞并六国,建立起统一的封建国家。秦帝国的建立是“法治”思想和实践的里程碑,大秦将集权专制和“法治”相互糅合,将法家重刑思想发展到极端,走向了崇尚暴力和滥刑滥杀的野蛮恐怖境地,导致天下怨叛,秦王朝二世而亡,君权至上最终将法治引向了集权专制的死胡同。     

Journey towards independent living: a grounded theory investigation of leaving the care of Girls & Boys Town,South Africa

The journey out of care and towards independent living is a challenge for many care-leavers. There has been little research into the social processes involved in this care-leaving journey. This paper presents the results of a grounded theory investigation into the care-leaving journeys of nine young men who had, several years previously, been in the care of Girls & Boys Town in South Africa. Working from a resilience perspective, with an ecological emphasis, four central social processes emerged that together explain the care-leaving experiences of the participants. These processes are striving for authentic belonging; networking people for goal attainment; contextualised responsiveness and building hopeful and tenacious self-confidence. These four processes are located within contextual boundaries and at the social environmental interface. The paper presents these processes in detail, drawing on selected narratives of the participants and integrated with additional theory. It is hoped that this paper may contribute to theory building concerning care-leaving processes and enhance youth care practices for youth in care and leaving care.     

对区域高等教育战略规划的若干思考--基于《加利福尼亚州高等教育总体规划（1960-1975）》的分析

《加利福尼亚州高等教育总体规划（1960—1975）》是区域高等教育战略规划领域的成功范例，规划内容通过州宪法性效力、州法律法规性效力以及行业约定性效力三种形式发挥作用。准确把握关键问题、秉持院校自治理念、深入开展调研等做法值得借鉴。我国区域高等教育机遇与挑战并存，教育规划应当坚持治理理念、以人为本理念和系统论理念，对区域高校定位作出合理预期与安排，引导区域高等教育健康和谐发展。     

Contextual identity experiencing facilitates resilience in Native American academics

This article discusses the socio-cultural dynamics that interact with ethno-racial identity experiencing in a previously under-researched group. A qualitative interdisciplinary study with 40 Native American academics from 28 mainstream universities across the U.S. served as a case example with findings that contrasted with historically influential theoretical frameworks postulating identity confusion and conflicts at the intersection of one’s mainstream education and profession versus one’s ethno-racial community grounding. Instead of feeling pressure to identify with only one worldview, the contextual, dynamic identities associated with the inclusive and flexible self-concept of tribal participants allowed them to in turn take advantage of two divergent cultural meaning systems pertaining to their distinct socio-cultural contexts. These shifts were experienced as not endogenous but rather exogenous variables, which did not cause the historically theorized issues. Participants felt their tribal identities instead facilitated meaningful integration of the existing incongruences, which resulted in unexpectedly resilient subjective experiencing.     

政治关联如何影响社会组织有效性？——组织自主性的中介作用和制度支持的调节作用

社会组织领域的政治关联现象日益显著，但政治关联究竟如何影响社会组织有效性，其隐藏的作用机制又是什么？这是学术界尚未明晰的重要课题。针对254家社会组织的问卷调查发现，社会组织政治关联会正向影响组织有效性，这一关系受到组织自主性的中介作用影响。更进一步的研究显示，制度支持能调节上述中介关系。具体而言，当制度支持水平较高时，这一效应将会增强；当制度支持水平较低时，政治关联通过组织自主性间接影响组织有效性的效应就会减弱。这一发现，一方面增进了我们对社会组织政治关联的理解，另一方面也为提升社会组织有效性的理论和实践提供了重要启示。     

市场分割、政企关系与异地市场拓展

中国的市场仍旧存在某种程度的分割，如何突破这种市场分割到异地拓展市场是企业要考虑的现实问题。以前的研究主要是从省级层面或国家层面进行宏观分析。文章创新地从政企关系视角入手来考察市场分割情形下微观层面的企业异地市场拓展，也是首先把市场分割（和异地市场）分为省内（本市外）市场、省外市场和海外市场三个不同层面来研究的论文。用世界银行的调查数据从微观企业个体层面检验了企业异地市场拓展的可能。实证研究结果发现，市场分割确实阻碍了企业异地市场拓展，但这仅限于省内市场而不是省外市场。此外，市场分割是有方向性的，从地方保护主义严重的市场里走出来的企业更容易拓展异地市场，但此结论仅适用于国内市场拓展而不适用于海外市场拓展。良好的政企关系是有利于企业异地市场拓展的，但仅限于省外市场，对省内市场以及海外市场是无效的。文章解释了其中的原因，并分析了对于企业实践的启示。     

“Who generates this city”? Socialist strategy in contemporary London

This essay, based on a “militant ethnography” of the attempts of the small radical grassroots activist group, Our London (a pseudonym), to mobilize a collective oppositional politics through activities around an election campaign, engages critically with E. Laclau and C. Mouffe's arguments on discourse and collectivity in Hegemony and Socialist Strategy (London: Verso, 1985). I argue, on the basis of my findings, that while their model does provide insights that help describe the process of building collectivity from among disparate perspectives and identities, we need to go beyond a focus on discourse alone and consider the ways politics is shaped by material contexts. This is necessary if we are to understand the continued appeal of class politics as well as the difficulties in mobilizing collectivity in highly unequal and fragmented cities. From an activist perspective, the essay also highlights how developing a conception of collective interests and a critique of overarching systems of exploitation can be important in building political unity.