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61.
基于ODR-ADASYN-SVM的极端金融风险预警研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
针对合成少数类过采样(synthetic minority over-sampling technique,SMOTE)方法在提升支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)的非均衡样本学习能力中出现的过拟合(over fitting),引入自适应合成抽样方法(adaptive synthetic sampling approach,ADASYN)和逐级优化递减欠采样方法(optimization of decreasing reduction,ODR)分别克服SMOTE在生成新样本中的盲目性和在处理对象上的局限性,进而与SVM相结合,构造出改进SVM,即ODR-ADASYN-SVM模型来预测中国极端金融风险;最后运用T检验对各模型预测精度的差异性进行显著性检验以及对各模型的预测稳定性进行评价.实证结果表明,ODR-ADASYN-SVM模型不仅能够显著地提升SVM的非均衡样本学习能力,同时也能够有效地克服SMOTE的过拟合,从而展示出优越的极端金融风险预测性能.  相似文献   
62.
李腾 《北方论丛》2016,(1):103-107
孟子云“夭寿不贰,修身以俟之,所以立命也”,其中包含着“夭寿(生死)与命之间的关系”以及“修身立命”这两方面的问题。海德格尔《存在与时间》在时间的视域下,将此在解读为“向死而在”,与言说“生生之大德”的儒者形成一种互补关系。命定的偶然性(个体的人必然有具体的实质限定)、必死性(有限个体必有其死)和使命义(人禀受善性而有道德使命)这三者构成了《孟子》中的“命”义。孟子反求诸己,追求人的本然善性和生之尊严;海德格尔则认为面对死亡的决断,是个体成为本真存在的关键,而儒者的生活方式可视作本真存在的一种可能性。  相似文献   
63.
In this article I explore a methodology of storytelling as a means of bringing together research around autism and childhood in a new way, as a site of the embodied becoming of autism and childhood. Through reflection on an ethnographic story of embodiment, the body is explored as a site of knowledge production that contests its dominantly storied subjectivation as a ‘disordered’ child. Storytelling is used to experiment with a line of flight from the autistic-child-research assemblage into new spaces of potential and possibility where the becomings of bodies within the collision of autism and childhood can be celebrated.  相似文献   
64.
As life expectancy increases, the role of grandparent has increased in duration and is continually adapting as families change in structure, function and form. Across the past several decades, researchers have examined grandparenting styles, finding some consistency as well as the emergence of newer styles, and evidence that grandparenting styles are related to the age and gender of both the grandparents and the grandchildren. In this study, we investigated young adults’ perceptions of grandparenting quality. University Students (N?=?470) from a Midwestern university responded to an online survey that asked them to evaluate the quality of their grandparents grandparenting now and at two retrospective points in time, childhood and adolescence. We hypothesized that the grandparents' performance of multiple styles of their role would be related to grandparenting quality. In addition, we expected that preferred grandparental roles would vary in relation to grandchildren's gender. The results of regression analysis indicated that, although grandparenting quality tended to decline across the respondents' developmental stages, higher ratings at an earlier stage were related to higher ratings at the latter two stages. Further, grandsons preferred grandparents who performed as supporters and advisors, whereas granddaughters preferred grandparents who functioned as supporter and friend. Overall, grandmothers were likely to be the more significant grandparent. Continual research on both grandchildren and grandparents will be needed to chronicle the development of the grandparental role in changing times.  相似文献   
65.
This exploratory study aimed to examine which components of early childhood conscience predicted bullying involvement around school entry. In the population‐based Generation R Study, teacher reports of bullying involvement and parent reports of conscience were available for 3,244 children (M age = 6.7 years). Higher levels of overall conscience predicted lower bullying perpetration scores, independently of intelligence quotient, temperamental traits and sociodemographic characteristics. Particularly, the subscales guilt, confession, and internalized conduct, and to a lesser extent empathy, predicted bullying perpetration. Conscience was not related to victimization. Similar results were found using observations during so‐called ‘cheating games’ (subsample N = 450 children). Findings suggest that improving children's understanding of moral standards and norms may be a potential target for bullying intervention programs in early primary school.  相似文献   
66.
Enrollment into unequal schools at the start of formal education is an important mechanism for the reproduction of racial/ethnic educational inequalities. We examine whether there are racial/ethnic differences in school enrollment options at kindergarten, the start of schooling. We use nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study‐Birth Cohort (ECLS‐B) to model whether parents seek information about their child's school before enrolling, whether parents move to a location so that a child can attend a certain school, or whether parents enroll their child in a school other than the assigned public school. Results indicate that enrollment patterns differ greatly across race/ethnicity. Whereas Black families are the most likely to seek information on a school's performance, White families are the most likely to use the elite option of choosing their residential location to access a particular school. These differences persist when controlling for socioeconomic status and sociogeographic location. Kindergarten enrollment patterns preserve the advantages of White families, perpetuating racial/ethnic disparities through multiple institutions and contributing to intergenerational processes of social stratification. Research should continue to examine specific educational consequences of housing inequities and residential segregation.  相似文献   
67.
The aim of this study was to investigate the unique and combined role of friendship quality and friends' aggression in regard to the persistence of young children's physical aggression from kindergarten to grade 2. The sample included 1555 children (808 girls) assessed annually using teacher ratings. Two theoretical perspectives (i.e., the social learning and the social bonding perspectives) served as frameworks to guide the analyses and interpret the results. In line with the social learning perspective, friends' aggression was related to a significant increase in children's physical aggression. However, in line with the social bonding perspective, good friendship quality played both a compensatory and a protective role, by, respectively, reducing children's initial level of physical aggression and by mitigating, albeit marginally, the associations between friends' and children's physical aggression. These results suggest that fostering a positive relationship between friends in the early school years may decrease physical aggression even if the friends are aggressive.  相似文献   
68.
传说在西藏早期历史研究中的作用浅探   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在西藏早期历史的研究中,传说的作用还没有引起广泛的重视。以传说为切点,通过藏汉文资料的对比分析,就会发现:传说不仅是文字产生之前历史的最重要载体,并且在文字产生后的很长一段时间里,仍对历史著述产生着重要的影响。对西藏早期史著中的传说和传说中的历史真实进行分析和辨别,无疑会对西藏早期历史的研究产生深远的影响。  相似文献   
69.
传统健康体检主要通过对单次体检指标进行横向比较和静态分析,忽略个体差异,纯粹从指标高低来判断体检者健康状况与身体状态,难以及时发现体检者可能存在的疾病隐患。由于个体体检指标具有样本量小、信息不确定、数据类型异构、影响因素构成复杂等特征,传统以大样本为基础的数学模型均难以适应此类小数据系统的建模要求。为此,通过建立适用于人体主要指标趋势预测的灰色系统模型(简称HIGM(1,1)模型),实现对人体主要健康指标的动态建模与趋势分析,从而可以掌握体检者未来一段时间身体指标的变化趋势及可能存在的疾病隐患。研究成果对提升体检效果、强化体检意义,促进灰色理论与现实问题的有效对接等方面,均具有积极意义。  相似文献   
70.
侯方域作为“复社四公子”之一,在明末清初的士林中颇具影响力和号召力。但因参加顺治八年(1651)乡试一事,侯方域在人格与道德上遭到世人质疑和批判。另外,又因为《桃花扇》中的戏剧形象深入人心,后人对他的认识亦多有争议,而这种对其为人的偏见甚至还延及了对其诗文的客观评价。本文本着“了解之同情”的学术态度,通过解析侯方域的诗文作品,对其从归隐到应试的心路历程进行全面观照,从而尽可能地还原易代士人的生存状况与心灵困境。  相似文献   
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