政府动态奖惩机制下绿色建筑供给侧演化博弈研究

从绿色建筑供给侧角度出发，构建消费者效用函数、开发商利润函数和政府与开发商的演化博弈模型，分析消费者绿色偏好、建筑绿色度、成本等因素对建筑价格、需求和利润的影响以及政府动态奖惩政策下系统的演化稳定策略。结果表明：消费者绿色偏好支付系数和建筑绿色度的增大有利于绿色建筑价格、需求和利润的提高，但高成本却使需求和利润降低；政府采用静态补贴与静态税收政策时，博弈系统不存在演化稳定策略，采用动态补贴与静态税收、静态补贴与动态税收、动态补贴与动态税收三种政策组合时，系统存在演化稳定策略；动态补贴与静态税收的政策组合在推动绿色建筑发展方面优于其他政策；开发商开发绿色建筑的概率与补贴上限值呈负相关，与税收上限值呈正相关。     

富裕社会中贫困的消除：加尔布雷思的探究及启示

贫困表现为人的基本需要得不到满足，“富裕社会”中的贫困表现为私人生产、物质生产的过剩和公共生产、精神生产的不足。加尔布雷思认为，美国“富裕社会”中贫困的原因是不平衡的“二元经济体系”，只要实行“新社会主义”，实现“计划体系”和“市场体系”的平衡，就能解决“富裕”背后的贫困问题。由于这一设想是以不改变资本主义的经济基础为前提的，所以，只能是一种治标不治本的改良。只有扬弃经济学的“传统智慧”，建构以促进“每个人的自由发展”为目标的“全面生产”经济学，才能从根本上消除“富裕社会”中的贫困问题。     

"指标困局":农村贫困治理的实践与反思

在国家的扶贫实践中，地方政府的行为策略是影响扶贫绩效的关键变量。通过对精准扶贫政策实践的调研发现，中央政府不断升级的治理手段为重构央地关系创造了条件，地方政府对国家扶贫理念转型认知的偏差以及在形成路径依赖之后的策略行为不仅容易产生对总体局势的误判，还为后期的政策困局埋下了伏笔。在此背景下，地方扶贫工作遭遇“指标困局”，即地方政府很难实事求是去识别贫困户，只能在既有的指标约束下进行精准识别，扶贫工作陷入了反复识别，却仍难实现精准的怪圈。     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

就业优先:以"公平而有质量"的教育 在民族地区阻断贫困代际传递

“发展教育脱贫一批”是在民族地区实现共同富裕的重要方针。然而在“教育改变命运”的共识之外，布迪厄认为教育一代代地维持着对社会中下阶层的不公平的“文化再生产”理论，被一些学者应用于对我国少数民族教育的研究。如在“三区三州”等民族地区，代际间的贫困传递难以阻断，因家庭文化资本弱势而造成子女求学、求职受阻，看似可用“贫困文化的再生产”予以概括，但笔者不同意直接套用西方理论认定中国存在“教育不公平”的论述。因为我国社会实际与布氏提出“学校教育再生产社会阶层结构”观点之环境不同，有多项教育政策在切实保障着少数民族通过“教育改变命运”——当前在我国民族地区实现教育公平的主要障碍，并非 “文化再生产”的结构性阻力，而在于就业环节的阶段性困难。教育公平可分为起点、过程和结果三个环节，民族地区经多年教育扶贫，“起点”入学机会和“过程”教育质量已明显改善，而作为“结果”的就业环节亟待改善。以“就业优先”方针多渠道扩大少数民族就业，可激发内生动力、促进市场融入、巩固减贫成效和精准防控返贫，是助少数民族自主掌握教育“社会阶梯”和阻断贫困代际传递的有效路径。     

The 2015 welfare reform of the National Basic Livelihood Security System in South Korea: Effects on economic outcomes

In July 2015, South Korea’s National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was reformed for the purposes of eliminating welfare blind spots and reducing poverty. The reform is expected to affect the recipients’ economic behaviours and choices. In this study, we used changes in benefits and eligibility for the NBLSS under the customised benefit system to identify the effects of the change in the NBLSS on a proposed set of economic outcomes – income, labour supply, consumption, savings, poverty reduction. To estimate the effects, we used data from the 10th–12th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study and employed a difference‐in‐differences framework integrated with the propensity scores. We found that the NBLSS helps the poor to reduce financial and material hardships through income and consumption increments, but that it does not provide disincentives to the recipients from participating in the labour market or from saving.     

京津冀节能减排政策措施的差异与协同研究

在对京津冀1981年以来节能减排政策措施进行量化处理的基础上,建立针对节能减排政策措施有效性的计量模型,分析了京津冀节能减排政策措施的演变状况,并探究京津冀节能减排政策措施对其节能减排效果影响的差异性.研究结果表明:京津冀节能减排政策颁布经历了早期各年份相对零散、缺乏连续性到新世纪以来政策颁布数量显著增多、政策总体力度逐渐增大的过程,但三地政策总效力的增加主要是由于节能减排政策颁布数量增多引起的;京津冀三地在政策的制定过程中更多的是趋于实现短期目标,政策整体缺乏系统性和权威性;人事措施、行政措施、引导措施、财税措施、金融措施等不同节能减排政策措施对京津冀节能和减排的有效性具有明显的差异;三地对不同政策措施的使用方式、使用程度方面存在明显的差异,这对京津冀协同推进节能减排的治理工作提出挑战.论文还从京津冀完善单一节能减排政策措施的使用、加强市场手段的应用及京津冀区域协同治理等方面提出了相应政策建议.     

Product partition latent variable model for multiple change-point detection in multivariate data

The product partition model (PPM) is a well-established efficient statistical method for detecting multiple change points in time-evolving univariate data. In this article, we refine the PPM for the purpose of detecting multiple change points in correlated multivariate time-evolving data. Our model detects distributional changes in both the mean and covariance structures of multivariate Gaussian data by exploiting a smaller dimensional representation of correlated multiple time series. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through experiments on simulated and real datasets.     

政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。     

Beyond Piketty: A new perspective on poverty and inequality in India

The socio-economic literature has focused much on how overall inequality in income distribution (frequently measured by the Gini coefficient) undermines the “trickle down” effect. In other words, the higher the inequality in the income distribution, the lower is the growth elasticity of poverty. However, with the publication of Piketty’s magnum opus (2014), and a subsequent study by Chancel and Piketty (2017) of evolution of income inequality in India since 1922, the focus has shifted to the income disparity between the richest 1% (or 0.01%) and the bottom 50%. Their central argument is that the rapid growth of income at the top end of millionaires and billionaires is a by-product of growth. The present study extends this argument by linking it to poverty indices in India. Based on the India Human Development Survey 2005–12 – a nationwide panel survey-we examine the links between poverty and income inequality, especially in the upper tail relative to the bottom 50%, state affluence (measured in per capita income) and their interaction or their joint effect. Another feature of our research is that we analyse their effects on the FGT class of poverty indices. The results are similar in as much as direction of association is concerned but the elasticities vary with the poverty index. The growth elasticities are negative and significant for all poverty indices. In all three cases, the disparity between the income share of the top 1% and share of the bottom 50% is associated with greater poverty. These elasticities are much higher than the (absolute) income elasticities except in the case of the poverty gap. The largest increase occurs in the poverty gap squared – a 1% greater income disparity is associated with a 1.24% higher value of this index. Thus the consequences of even a small increase in the income disparity are alarming for the poorest.