Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊，相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”，表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响，其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据，对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比，分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。     

Coproduction and the third sector in France: Governmental traditions and the French conceptualization of participation

Research on coproduction has tended to assume a coherence of conceptualizations of coproduction across borders, and little analysis of the framing and discourse of coproduction in different contexts has been undertaken. In the French language literature on citizen participation and the social and solidarity economy, the term coproduction is little used. This paper investigates the narratives of French academics, public, and third sector actors in order to identify what, if anything, is different about the French context that explains this gap. Drawing on semistructured interviews, I identify four key narratives that distinguish the French conceptualizations of coproduction and the third sector from the dominant English language coproduction literature: (a) a mainstreaming of coproduction as part of organizational purpose in the social and solidarity economy, (b) an emphasis on formalized involvement of citizens in organizational governance, (c) the motivation of citizen empowerment and democracy over cost and efficiency, and (d) the use of the term coconstruction rather than coproduction. I argue that these narratives are shaped by the governmental traditions of France, which emphasize formal rules, hierarchy, representative democracy, and a suspicion of particularistic interests. I conclude by questioning the universality of some of the axioms of coproduction theory in the English language literature.     

Values and happiness among Asian adolescents: a cross-national study

Despite policy efforts to increase adolescent happiness, their impact has been unsatisfactory. Their limited impact may be rooted from a discrepancy between values that adolescents pursued and those that the policies were based on. To provide policy implications, our study aims to identify prevailing values for South Korean, Japanese, and Chinese adolescents and to examine the relationship between the values and self-rated happiness (SRH). A cross-sectional study was conducted using survey data collected on approximately 2000 middle and high school students (7th to 12th school grade) from each country in 2008. Firstly, an explanatory factor analysis was conducted to identify salient adolescent values from each country. Subsequently, a multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted for each population group to examine the relationship between the identified values and adolescent SRH after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. We found that benevolence and altruism were positively associated with adolescent SRH in all three population groups. Patriarchy was associated with SRH positively in Chinese yet inversely in Japanese. Success pursuit was inversely associated with SRH in Korean. Policy efforts based on values of communities or social harmony may benefit adolescents’ SRH in these three countries.     

学前教育体制机制研究的现实图谱和未来走向

学前教育体制机制研究是近年来一个热点、难点论域。运用科学计量可视化软件，结合内容分析，定量与定性相结合的方式系统回视了我国学前教育体制机制研究的实然面貌。并据此省思未来研究应多边集聚研究力量，促进学术共同体开放与融合；多元突破研究范式，促进理实之间对话与共生；多维聚焦研究主题，促进本土情境中问题剖析与解决。     

The quest for legitimacy and the communication of strategic cross-sectoral partnership on Facebook: A big data study

Nowadays, many wicked problems such as environmental issues require organizations from multiple sectors to form cross-sectoral alliances. Cross-sectoral alliance networks can transfer resources and signal affiliations and value alignment between strategic partners. The communication of cross-sectoral alliances is a form of CSR communication that serves organizations’ strategic goals and objectives. Drawing on the literature on digital CSR communication and legitimacy theory, this article examines which legitimacy needs shape the formation of cross-sectoral ties on Facebook in addressing environmental and sustainable development issues in the United States. Combining data-mining, text-mining, social network analysis, and exponential graph modeling, this research investigates the structure of a network among 3071 organizations across multiple sectors. Findings show that organizations’ cross-sectoral tie formation is mainly driven by social legitimacy and alliance legitimacy needs.     

A Data‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand

The U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk can result from climate‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged advanced supervised learning theory to identify the key predictors of climate‐sensitive demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Our analysis indicates that variations in mean dew point temperature is the common major risk factor across all the three sectors. We have also conducted a statistical sensitivity analysis to assess the variability in the projected demand as a function of the key climate risk factor. We then propose the use of scenario‐based heat maps as a tool to communicate the inadequacy risks to stakeholders and decisionmakers. While we use the state of Ohio as a case study, our proposed approach is equally applicable to all other states.     

基于信息披露文本的上市公司财务困境预测:以中文年报管理层讨论与分析为样本的研究

本文采用文本分析方法研究了中文年报管理层讨论与分析传递的管理层语调能否提供财务困境预测的增量信息、能否提高预测的准确性以及文本内容的信息价值，主要结论为：（1）管理层语调确实为财务困境预测提供了新的信息，能提高财务困境模型的拟合程度和预测能力；（2）管理层语调是对定量财务数据的重要补充，而且这些信息并没有在市场交易价格中得到充分反映；（3）负面语调比净语调具有更高的信息价值；（4）财经文本情感或语调的分析应以基于相关来源财经文本的情感词词典为基础，而直接引入其他领域成熟词典的效果较差。     

‘One MBA?’ How context impacts the development of post-MBA career outcomes

Using survey data from alumni of one of the UK's earliest and largest MBA programmes we explore how career capital, career outcomes and career satisfaction are impacted by learner context. We adopt comparative capitalisms theory to investigate whether graduates from a standardised programme marketed as ‘One MBA’ report broadly similar career outcomes irrespective of their work and study location. We find that despite the rhetoric around globalisation in management education there are differences that fit the theories of comparative capitalisms literature; thus supporting the view that, despite the global nature of MBA branding, context still plays a role in shaping learning and career outcomes as evidenced by differences reported here. Significant findings are reported in terms of the reported development of career capital ‘knowing how’; career satisfaction and perceived organisational support, however differences in terms of the achievement of objective career success (promotion and career mobility) were less pronounced.