重大疫情防控中网络舆情治理的实践困境与策略优化

疫情防控关乎生命安全,舆情治理关系民心所向。基于重大疫情防控下的网络空间呈现出前兆性缺失、全民性参与、持续性诱发的舆情特征,由此引发了一系列辐射效应,造成深层次的结构性社会影响,导致了社会心态的转变和非理性情绪的蔓延。以信息、情绪和制度为视角的网络空间中,信息场域混乱导致信息失衡、非理性表达导致消极氛围、制度效能不足导致治理式微的实践困局,网络舆情空间乱象频发。疫情防控下的网络舆情治理体系,应以维持信息生态平衡为基础重建信息场域,以引导正面社会情绪为指向重塑情绪氛围,以发挥制度治理效能为动力重构制度体系,以此构筑战疫精神堡垒,凝聚民族精神伟力。     

SARS危机:公共卫生体系的断裂与重构

2003年春天爆发的SARS危机使公共卫生体系的重建成为一个紧迫的问题。公共卫生体系是一个庞大的系统工程,需要建立从政府、军队、媒体到民间组织等多层次完备的疫情危机处理机制,其中民间组织具有非常重要的作用;发生疫情时,公共卫生体系首要的功能就是协调统一有关机构、快速准确收集信息并及时将疫情和防范知识公布于众;全民健康教育和公共卫生危机训练必须成为建构公共卫生体系的重要内容。     

古代湖南虫灾、风灾、雹灾、冰冻、地震、疫灾简论

古代湖南除水、旱两大自然灾害外,主要的灾种还有虫灾、风灾、雹灾、冰冻、地震和疫灾,都对社会产生了不同程度的影响和破坏。     

浅谈战争在明清江南温病学派发展中的作用

战争作为一种社会因素影响着医学的发展。明清时期 ,阶级矛盾激化导致农民起义和市民斗争不断发生 ,在清代 ,还加上一系列的外来侵略战争。战争中人口密集的军队本身就是疫病的高发处 ,而部队的行军和由此引起的人口南移更把传染源带至所过之处。而因人口南移导致的江南人口剧增 ,为疫病的高发和迅速广泛的传播的必要条件。另一方面 ,由此带来的江南的繁荣 ,也为医学和文化的传播和发展提供物质基础     

A case study in non-centering for data augmentation: Stochastic epidemics

In this paper, we introduce non-centered and partially non-centered MCMC algorithms for stochastic epidemic models. Centered algorithms previously considered in the literature perform adequately well for small data sets. However, due to the high dependence inherent in the models between the missing data and the parameters, the performance of the centered algorithms gets appreciably worse when larger data sets are considered. Therefore non-centered and partially non-centered algorithms are introduced and are shown to out perform the existing centered algorithms.     

A support group for individuals recently testing HIV positive: A psycho‐educational group model

The present paper describes an eight‐week psycho‐educational group model that is easily adaptable to any agency that is concerned with a comprehensive package of services for counseling HIV + persons, as well as for others involved in the long‐term management of issues related to the health threat presented by HIV infection.     

Recalibration of the Grunow–Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow–Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled “special insights,” and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.     

Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak

Outbreaks of influenza represent an important health concern worldwide. In many cases, vaccines are only partially successful in reducing the infection rate, and respiratory protective devices (RPDs) are used as a complementary countermeasure. In devising a protection strategy against influenza for a given population, estimates of the level of protection afforded by different RPDs is valuable. In this article, a risk assessment model previously developed in general form was used to estimate the effectiveness of different types of protective equipment in reducing the rate of infection in an influenza outbreak. It was found that a 50% compliance in donning the device resulted in a significant (at least 50% prevalence and 20% cumulative incidence) reduction in risk for fitted and unfitted N95 respirators, high‐filtration surgical masks, and both low‐filtration and high‐filtration pediatric masks. An 80% compliance rate essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak. The results of the present study, as well as the application of the model to related influenza scenarios, are potentially useful to public health officials in decisions involving resource allocation or education strategies.     

新冠肺炎疫情下的公民生态道德教育

新冠肺炎疫情的爆发以及抗疫的全民阻击战给人类带来了太多的思考、启发和感悟。对新型冠状病毒最初宿主的讨论引发了人类对野生动物主题的关注,抗疫中的出行方式、生活方式引发了人类对绿色生活方式的再次呼吁。这些问题都有必要从生态道德的角度进行思考,必须通过生态道德教育提升全民生态道德素养。     

疫情防控常态化形势下中国大学生管理模式探析

疫情防控常态化形势下的大学生管理工作,要充分认识当前存在的困难问题,借鉴和发扬国内外校园防疫优秀成果,实现大学生管理理念从被动式、低效型、分散化向主动式、高效型、系统化转变。要在疫情防控常态化形势下,构建起“一主线、双统筹、三保障”的大学生管理构架。紧紧围绕“三全育人”工作主线,统筹抓好新冠疫情防控和学生日常管理,不断强化体制机制保障、舆论氛围保障和技术物资保障。从思想管理、学习管理、生活管理、组织管理四个维度加强管理模式创新。将疫情防控内容、防控理念、防控举措和防控机制有机融入其中,使疫情防控常态化形势下的大学生管理模式实现新的突破。