新冠疫情与非典疫情、国际金融危机对就业的影响与对策比较分析

2003年以来,我国经历了非典疫情、国际金融危机和本次新型冠状病毒疫情等三次较大规模的事件。本研究就三次大事件对就业的主要影响以及应对措施进行了对比分析。比较而言,非典疫情对局部行业和地区影响较大,并且持续时间短、恢复较快,因而对就业的影响总体是短期的、结构性的、局部性的,但影响程度大于对经济的影响;金融危机影响范围广、持续时间长、冲击力强,就业受到影响较为严重,失业率显著上升、农民工大规模返乡、高校毕业生就业难等问题十分突出;新冠疫情对经济社会产生严重冲击,影响巨大,范围广、程度深,并且因与春节假期重叠导致返工困难,就业总量压力加剧,结构性矛盾非常突出,失业水平可能达到新高。为应对当前疫情对经济社会和就业影响,要在现有援企稳岗政策基础上,进一步加大支持力度,重点关注农民工、高校毕业生、疫区就业人员、失业人员等群体,提供更有效的就业帮扶。     

新冠疫情背景下文化自信的多维审视

在抗击新冠疫情的过程中,中华文化成为我国开展抗疫工作的力量源泉。伟大的民族精神是抗击新冠疫情的自信之魂,团结精神和爱国情怀、中华民族勇于开拓的创造精神,为中华儿女抗击疫情提供了源源不断的动力支撑。优秀传统文化是抗击新冠疫情的自信之根,自强不息的民族精神、人民至上的价值理念、“和而不同”的文化理念,在疫情防控阻击战中得到了充分的展现。社会主义先进文化是抗击疫情的自信之核,以社会主义先进文化为引领谋划战“疫”布局,体现出我国显著的制度优势、卓越的治理优势。红色革命文化是战胜新冠疫情的基因密码,在抗疫中表现为党和人民群众的血肉相连,是中国人民团结勇敢、积极乐观精神最真切的体现。     

Cross-infection in epidemics spread by carriers

A block-structured transient Markov process is introduced to describe an epidemic spreading within two linked populations, of carriers and susceptibles. The epidemic terminates as soon as there are no more carriers or susceptibles present in the population. Our purpose is to determine the distribution of the final susceptible and carrier states, and of any integral path for the susceptible process. The transient epidemic state is also briefly discussed. Then, the model is extended to allow the recovery of infected individuals. Finally, several particular models, some known, are used for illustration.     

利用多媒体提高药理学教学质量

随着信息科学的发展和教学改革的深入，多媒体已广泛应用于医学教学；但如何与传统教学有机结合，做到合理应用多媒体一直是个争议中的问题。药理学教学可根据其学科特点、教与学的主体、教学内容、教学步骤等进行合理设计，利用多媒体来提高教学质量。     

一类具有垂直传染的SEIR传染病模型

研究了一类具有垂直传染的SEIR传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值R_+~*.当R_0~*<1时,仅存在无病平衡点且局部渐近稳定;当R_0~*>1时,除存在不稳定的无病平衡点外,还存在唯一的正地方病平衡点且局部渐近稳定.     

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number in the General Epidemic Model with an Unknown Initial Number of Susceptible Individuals

Abstract. In any epidemic, there may exist an unidentified subpopulation which might be naturally immune or isolated and who will not be involved in the transmission of the disease. Estimation of key parameters, for example, the basic reproductive number, without accounting for this possibility would underestimate the severity of the epidemics. Here, we propose a procedure to estimate the basic reproductive number ( R ₀ ) in an epidemic model with an unknown initial number of susceptibles. The infection process is usually not completely observed, but is reconstructed by a kernel‐smoothing method under a counting process framework. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the estimators for major epidemics. We illustrate the procedure using the Abakaliki smallpox data.     

抗战时期晋察冀边区的疫病及其防治

抗战时期,晋察冀抗日根据地疫病流行,民众发病率、死亡率极高。日军推行罪恶的细菌战、残酷的"扫荡"及"三光"政策恶化了生存环境,封建迷信盛行,没有良好的卫生习惯是严重疫情发生的主要原因。根据地党和政府严防日军细菌战,及时开展科学治疗,大力推行卫生防疫运动,积极改善人民生活,疫病防治工作取得了较大成绩。     

突发疫情环境下基于服务水平的应急物流网络优化设计

针对突发疫情环境下的应急物流网络优化问题，本文定义了一类创新的应急服务水平函数，刻画了决策者对疫区应急物资需求满足程度与应急救援总成本控制之间的偏好侧重。在此基础上，进一步融合疫区的人口流动特性、不同疫区的人口密度特征、政府部门的二级环形预防策略以及应急配送的服务半径限制等现实因素，建立了基于服务水平的疫情应急物流网络优化模型。以江苏省甲型H1N1流感为背景进行算例测试，结果表明本文所设计的模型能够为疫情应急管理提供有效的政策建议和决策支持。     

艾滋病疫情发展及防控中的伦理问题

在全球范围内,艾滋病已经发展成为一个严重的公共卫生问题和社会问题;我国目前形势严峻,而且还存在着一些高发的隐患因素;艾滋病给个人及其家庭、社区和社会造成一系列的破坏作用;在艾滋病的防控工作中,存在着诸多伦理问题。对这些伦理问题进行梳理和分别研究,是制订防治艾滋病的公共政策、法律法规、管理办法的重要基础,也是公众正确对待艾滋病问题和艾滋病患者、感染者的认识基础。     

Inference in disease transmission experiments by using stochastic epidemic models

Summary.  The paper extends the susceptible–exposed–infective–removed model to handle heterogeneity introduced by spatially arranged populations, biologically plausible distributional assumptions and incorporation of observations from additional diagnostic tests. These extensions are motivated by a desire to analyse disease transmission experiments in a more detailed fashion than before. Such experiments are performed by veterinarians to gain knowledge about the dynamics of an infectious disease. By fitting our spatial susceptible–exposed–infective–removed with diagnostic testing model to data for a specific disease and production environment a valuable decision support tool is obtained, e.g. when evaluating on-farm control measures. Partial observability of the epidemic process is an inherent problem when trying to estimate model parameters from experimental data. We therefore extend existing work on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation in partially observable epidemics to the multitype epidemic set-up of our model. Throughout the paper, data from a Belgian classical swine fever virus transmission experiment are used as a motivating example.