Hand-Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network

The risk for a global transmission of flu-type viruses is strengthened by the physical contact between humans and accelerated through individual mobility patterns. The Air Transportation System plays a critical role in such transmissions because it is responsible for fast and long-range human travel, while its building components—the airports—are crowded, confined areas with usually poor hygiene. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) consider hand hygiene as the most efficient and cost-effective way to limit disease propagation. Results from clinical studies reveal the effect of hand washing on individual transmissibility of infectious diseases. However, its potential as a mitigation strategy against the global risk for a pandemic has not been fully explored. Here, we use epidemiological modeling and data-driven simulations to elucidate the role of individual engagement with hand hygiene inside airports in conjunction with human travel on the global spread of epidemics. We find that, by increasing travelers engagement with hand hygiene at all airports, a potential pandemic can be inhibited by 24% to 69%. In addition, we identify 10 airports at the core of a cost-optimal deployment of the hand-washing mitigation strategy. Increasing hand-washing rate at only those 10 influential locations, the risk of a pandemic could potentially drop by up to 37%. Our results provide evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene in airports on the global spread of infections that could shape the way public-health policy is implemented with respect to the overall objective of mitigating potential population health crises.     

企业家社交关系对关联信用风险传染影响的研究——基于双层网络视角

关联信用风险是指某些企业违约,导致与其存在关联关系的企业违约或违约可能性增大的这类信用风险。企业家的社交关系会影响企业之间关联信用风险的传染效应。本文利用双层网络刻画企业家和企业所形成的耦合网络,分析企业家的社交关系对关联信用风险传染的影响路径,构建双层网络中关联信用风险的传染模型,并考察企业家社交网络和双层网络的结构等因素对关联信用风险传染效应的影响。研究结果表明：企业家的社交关系是影响关联信用风险传染的重要因素;企业家社交-企业关联双层网络的拓扑结构也会影响关联信用风险的传染效应;提高双层网络的相似度,可以抑制关联信用风险在关联企业网络中的传染。本文的研究进一步拓展了信用风险的研究视角,为银行等金融机构对信用风险的提供科学的决策依据。     

民族地区高校疫情期间线上教学问题与对策研究——基于西昌学院师生的问卷调查

以新冠疫情对民族地区高等教育的挑战为切入点,结合西昌学院疫情期间线上教学开展情况,通过师生问卷调查数据,从统计数据发现西昌学院在线教学在平台和软件、教师网课质量、学生学习质量等方面存在的问题并提出相应对策,以期为后疫情阶段线上线下教学提供决策参考。     

大数据时代疫情防控中的信息披露与隐私保护

新冠肺炎疫情防控中,大数据技术被广泛应用。疫情信息的公开提高了疫情防控工作的有效性,但频发的隐私泄露事件也暴露了疫情信息披露与隐私保护之间的问题。大数据时代隐私的范围已经被扩大化,为公益目的个人应当接受对其隐私权的限制,但是这种限制应该是合法、适度的。新冠肺炎疫情防控中,个人隐私保护面临着知情同意规则失灵、公共利益与个人隐私利益相冲突、公众知情权和个人隐私权相冲突等困境。为保护个人隐私,必须严格规制疫情信息披露行为,首先要遵循相关法律原则保证其合法性,其次要保障公众的知情、同意和监督权保证其透明化,最后必须严格落实隐私侵权责任制度,严守隐私保护的最后一道法律防线。     

从新冠肺炎疫情防控看我国重大公共卫生事件的预防和应对策略

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控工作开展以来,国家在疫情应对过程中总结了很多成功经验,为其他国家和地区开展疫情防控提供了有益参考。同时,也存在很多问题需要在今后的工作中改进和提高。文章从重大突发公共卫生事件有效预防和应对的视角,梳理了疫情防控工作中的有力举措和存在问题,为进一步完善我国重大公共卫生事件应急管理体系建设提供参考依据。     

Stochastic differential equation systems for an SIS epidemic model with vaccination and immigration

Two Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) systems are constructed for a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible epidemic model with temporary vaccination. A constant number of new members enter the population and total size of the population is variable. Some conditions for disease extinction in the stochastic models are established and compared with conditions in deterministic one. It is shown that the two stochastic models are equivalent in the sense that their solutions come from same distribution. In addition, the SDE models are simulated and the equivalence of the two stochastic models is confirmed by numerical examples. The probability distribution for extinction is also obtained numerically, provided there exists a probability for disease persistence whereas the expected duration of epidemic is acquired when extinction occurs with probability 1.     

Bayesian Inference for Contact Networks Given Epidemic Data

Abstract. In this article, we estimate the parameters of a simple random network and a stochastic epidemic on that network using data consisting of recovery times of infected hosts. The SEIR epidemic model we fit has exponentially distributed transmission times with Gamma distributed exposed and infectious periods on a network where every edge exists with the same probability, independent of other edges. We employ a Bayesian framework and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration to make estimates of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. We discuss the accuracy of the parameter estimates under various prior assumptions and show that it is possible in many scientifically interesting cases to accurately recover the parameters. We demonstrate our approach by studying a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany, in 1861 consisting of 188 affected individuals. We provide an R package to carry out these analyses, which is available publicly on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.     

论重大突发公共卫生事件中的对口支援——以新冠肺炎疫情防控为考察对象

对口支援是一项独具中国特色的制度安排,在重大突发公共事件中有着突出的治理作用。新冠疫情作为重大突发公共卫生事件,党和国家在团结和带领全国各族人民全力以赴应对疫情的过程中,形成了以政府主导、企业协同、社会支撑为主要特征的对口支援主体。通过派遣医疗队、供应防疫物资等措施为打赢疫情防控阻击战奠定了雄厚的基础,通过建立科学合理的组织领导机制、人员选用机制和后勤保障机制等保障了对口支援的高效运行。在新冠疫情防控工作中,科学有效的对口支援不仅彰显了中国制度优势、体现了中国抗疫精神、增强了人民战疫信心,而且为世界防控新冠疫情提供了中国智慧和中国方案。     

Epidemics in heterogeneous communities: estimation of R0 and secure vaccination coverage

A stochastic multitype model for the spread of an infectious disease in a community of heterogeneous individuals is analysed. In particular, estimates of R ₀ (the basic reproduction number) and the critical vaccination coverage are derived, where estimation is based on final size data of an outbreak in the community. It is shown that these key parameters cannot be estimated consistently from data; only upper and lower bounds can be estimated. Confidence regions for the upper bounds are derived, thus giving conservative estimates of R ₀ and the fractions necessary to vaccinate.     

新中国成立初期的疫情与疫病防控的政治化

新中国成立后,在党和国家领导人的高度重视下,疫病防控工作开始走上国家化的道路,各级政府积极开展防治工作。传媒动员、参与动员等强有力的政治动员形式的运用,促成了大规模的群众运动,并使得新中国成立初期的各种疫病防控取得了巨大成就。疾病防控的国家化和制度化、宣传路径的多样化和运动形式的政治化以及强大的政治动员能力和广泛开展的群众运动是有效控制疫病流行的根本保证。即如王小军在其书中所揭示:政治决定着疫病防治的效果。