技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

Engaging leader – Engaged employees? A cross-lagged study on employee engagement

The goal of this study is to provide a cross-lagged examination of the relationships between engaging leadership, job resources and employee work engagement. We propose a mediation model and we postulate that engaging leadership can increase perceptions of three specific job resources (i.e. autonomy, support from colleagues and opportunities for learning and development) which theoretically correspond to the three facets of engaging leadership (i.e., inspiring, connecting and strengthening, respectively). Subsequently, in keeping with the extant body of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) research, we link job resources to employee work engagement. Our hypotheses were tested on data collected at two time-points – T1 (N = 759) and T2 (N = 273) –from employees working for a hotel chain in the Netherlands. In line with our expectations, engaging leadership showed a significant cross-lagged relationship with autonomy and support from colleagues, but did not predict learning opportunities and work engagement across time. While we formulated specific hypotheses, we also tested reversed causation relationships. We found no direct effect from engaging leadership on employee work engagement, however, the reversed effect was significant; employee perceptions of engaging leadership were shaped by their own engagement experiences. Importantly, engaged employees at T1 reported more job resources at T2. By providing a cross-lagged examination of our model, we showed that engaging leaders as well as employees’ positive affective state of being engaged, are essential to shaping a resourceful work context. A comprehensive view on the triggers and outcomes of work engagement and engaging leadership is needed, as the traditional unidirectional cause-effect rationale fails to explain how these concepts relate to one another and to employee experiences of job resources.     

Negotiating Accessibility for Electronic Resources

Abstract

Accessibility of library electronic resources is a must. Its importance derives from professional ethics of librarianship, rising total costs of acquisition, and mounting legal challenges to colleges and universities that fail to provide resources accessible to users with disabilities. Library staff are responsible for ensuring the accessibility of vendor-licensed eresources. This column reviews the accessibility clauses of nine model license agreements for electronic resources. It describes terms that should go into an optimal accessibility clause and creates a composite model clause. It also provides guidance for library staff seeking to negotiate stronger accessibility language into vendor license agreements. Finally, it addresses the impact of accommodation requests on the total cost of acquiring library eresources, concluding with a call to redouble efforts to advocate for greater accessibility and educate both vendors and library staff about its importance.     

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

区域经济运行中资源地域空间配置研究 --一个数理经济学的理论分析框架

在一定假设条件下,利用数理经济学方法对区域经济运行中的纯粹交换经济系统、纯粹生产经济系统、生产--交换经济系统中的资源地域空间配置优化进行一般均衡及其均衡扩展比较研究,发现并证明无论何种类型的区域经济体系或多区域经济体系,资源地域空间配置优化的宏观经济效益与微观经济效益并不总是一致的,存在着差异与负相关的可能性.     

成都市民旅游感应空间研究

旅游感应强度是研究旅游感应空间的一个角度。通过对《成都晚报》“旅游”专刊最近 6年的统计 ,得到全国 34个省级行政区及四川省内分地区作为旅游目的地的出现频次 ,以此频次来表征成都市民对国内及省内旅游目的地的感应强度。利用感应强度从省际和省内不同尺度揭示了成都市民旅游感应空间的特点 ,并发现旅游感应空间的一些新特征     

论保护知识产权对信息资源共享的影响

在知识经济环境下 ,信息资源共享是提高整个社会信息资源获知能力与利用率的关键。保护知识产权就是保护知识生产者生产知识的动力 ,就是保护资源共享的源泉。它可以极大地促进知识资源的生产和有序利用。同时 ,保护知识产权又将在一定程度上限制和约束资源共享。因此 ,保护知识产权 ,充分发挥资源共享的功能 ,需要加强知识产权保护的立法、执法及宣传 ,实现保护知识产权与资源共享的有机结合     

开发我国人力资源创新能力的对策研究

创新是推动社会发展的动力 ,特别是在知识经济时代 ,一个国家竞争能力的强弱主要依赖于创新 ,而创新源于具有创新能力的人才。笔者从分析影响人力资源创新能力的心理因素和社会环境因素入手 ,针对这些影响因素提出了开发我国人力资源创新能力的对策。     

价值新概念与资源配置和利用

经济运行从开始到达稳定状态一般经过七个阶段。传统劳动价值论认为 ,商品价值由物质生产部门的劳动者在社会生产的第二阶段实际耗费的劳动者支出量加上生产资料转移的价值决定。新价值论认为 ,现代产品价值由产品基本价值、生产资料价值和自然资源价值三部分构成 ,产品基本价值由社会各部门应该耗费的社会必要劳动能力量在生产的前提阶段内在地决定并在第七阶段成为现实。由此决定了传统的价值概念不能包含资源配置和利用。新价值概念本身就蕴涵着资源配置和利用。     

从股东利益最大化到利益相关者利益最大化 --我国公司法研究的一个不可忽视的问题

依照传统主流经济学和法学的观点 ,公司仅是股东的联合体和为股东赚钱的工具。随着知识经济时代的到来 ,资本所有者的地位开始削弱 ,拥有知识资源的利益相关者力量日益受到重视。我国公司法应顺应现代公司发展的潮流 ,摒弃股东利益最大化的观点 ,使利益相关者成为公司必不可少的制度要素。