On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

“动物与人”：叙事伦理、悖反性与双重困境指向——论“抉择之痛”作为功能指涉的效力边际

对初始情境中受难者“陷困”功能的探讨，是“动物叙事”叙事语法研究中不容忽视的一环，其中贯穿了一个最为基础的叙事功能指向——“抉择之痛”。强调“动物与人”两类受难者角色在身体、心理抑或情感维度陷入某种矛盾与纠结的状态，并且彼此间时常呈现出一定的矛盾悖反性。这一角色身份由动物形象与人类形象分别或共同承担，均指向一种叙事伦理层面的现代境遇的表达。在题材范畴方面，这一功能指涉涵盖了家养类与野生类“动物叙事”各自的叙事范畴。其效力边际已不仅仅局限在单纯生态视域与人性指涉的层面，而是凸显现代语境下人类所面临的共通性的伦理困境：一种挥之不去的矛盾、困惑与不安的情感和心境的写照。     

制度风险的法律维度: 突破非物质文化遗产保护的瓶颈

以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。     

从《了凡四训》到《训儿俗说》——关于袁了凡及其家风家训的思想史考察

袁了凡（袁黄）以其《了凡四训》闻名于世，该书亦被当作训子家书。其实，了凡所作家训并非《了凡四训》，而是《训儿俗说》。作为王龙溪（王畿）的及门弟子，了凡在思想上是阳明后学的一分子，其人生轨迹属于典型的儒家士大夫，其日常修持及著述呈现三教汇通的思想特色。了凡家风淳朴，家学深厚，以儒为宗，兼收并蓄，强调道德主义，注重积德行善，具有出世情怀，对其人格产生深刻影响。     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

大众传播中的“国家教师”媒介形象分析

运用传播学内容分析法，以中央媒体对获得"全国教书育人楷模"和"最美教师"荣誉称号的"国家教师"相关报道为研究对象，从外在和内在两个方面对大众传播的"国家教师"媒介形象进行分析。外在形象包括教师性别、年龄、教龄、外表、场景以及任教的学校类别、区域、学科专业等方面，内在形象包括职业精神、职业知识和职业能力等方面。研究发现，大众媒体对"国家教师"形象的刻画和宣传符合社会公众认知教师职业的基本逻辑，起到了传递教师精神、端正教师形象、唤起社会尊重教师的功效，但也存在城乡教师形象传播刻板化以及教师普通人形象展现不充分等问题，可在后续的传播中对"国家教师"形象的价值倾向进行适当调整。     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

论改善型民生

根据支撑基础、责任负担、保障水平以及民众需求等维度，可以把民生保障划分为托底型、基本型、改善型以及富裕型等四种类型。改善型民生是经济社会发展到一定阶段的产物，也是国家治理体系与治理能力现代化的客观要求。它是指通过各类民生项目的安排及民生待遇优化以促进民众生活得到持续改善、社会发展水平得到提升的一种制度类型，是民生项目更加齐全、内容更为完善、治理水平更高、使民众各按其分的民生模式，是人们的日常生活与服务消费支出总额持续增长以便能够提升生活水平的民生类型，是那种不断满足人的需要特别是较高层次需要的模式类型，也是更有助于形成社会结构稳定、国家长治久安的民生制度类型，因而具有综合性、完善性、激励性以及发展性等特点。这要求我们优化民生类型设计及民生投入结构，补齐改善型民生短板，营造良好社会秩序，扎实推进国家治理体系及治理能力现代化建设。     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.