心理理论的发展:回顾与展望

该文阐述了过去和现在心理理论的发展的简短历史。涉及婴儿和儿童知道心理状态的多样性 ,可能的和推论的心理知识 ,以及这些知识在个体、文化和灵长类动物方面的相似点和差异 ,并对这方面研究的未来做了一定的推测和思考     

对联与意境

对联作为汉语言独特的文学样式,是汉语文教育的重要资源.本文拟从对联意境的分析着手,利用"意象的和弦"、"假平行"等原理对意境的生成进行探讨,说明对联对拓展思维空间,激发想象力的积极作用.     

防范电算化会计信息失真的中美法规比较

为防范会计电算化与信息化导致的会计信息失真风险,要建立相应的法规.该文简要归纳了中美两国防范电算化会计信息失真的法规体系,通过两者的比较并分析差异的原因,提出改进我国防范电箅化信息失真的法规体系的建议.     

Evaluation of False Positive and False Negative Outcomes in NTP Long-Term Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies

The decision-making process used by the National Toxicology Program (NTP) in its evaluation of long-term rodent carcinogenicity studies was investigated to determine whether or not this procedure resulted in an excessive number of false positive or false negative outcomes. All site-specific tumor incidences that were found to be significantly ( p < 0.05) increased either by a trend test or by pairwise comparisons of each dosed group against the controls in 218 NTP 2-year studies with Fischer 344 rats and/or B6C3F1 mice were tabulated and compared to the number of statistically significant tumor increases expected to occur by chance. Our evaluation suggests that false positive rates are fairly low in NTP long-term studies. Assessing false negative rates is more difficult because of the limited sensitivity of the bioassay for detecting subtle carcinogenic effects. Moreover, reduced body weights frequently occur in dosed animals, and the positive correlation between the incidences of certain site-specific tumors and body weight may mask the detection of carcinogenic effects. Despite these difficulties, our analysis did identify one tumor showing evidence of false negative outcomes: interstitial cell tumors of the testis in male Fischer 344 (F344) rats. This tumor showed considerably more significant ( p > 0.05) increased incidences than expected by chance, yet none were considered to be chemically-related. However, the biological significance of interstitial cell tumor increases in F344 rats is uncertain because of the high background rate of neoplasia (>90%) for this target site.     

马克思主义市场扩张视角下的资本主义发展阶段——资本主义历史分期的一种新尝试

第一次产业革命后资本主义发展的历史,是在“无限扩张的生产和有限扩张的市场”矛盾运动中踉跄前行的历史,市场扩张是矛盾的主要方面。从马克思主义市场扩张角度看,产业革命后的资本主义发展可以分为三个阶段：资本主义生产与现实市场扩张矛盾主导阶段,资本主义生产与未来市场扩张矛盾主导阶段,资本主义生产与虚假市场扩张矛盾主导阶段。资本主义生产与虚假市场扩张矛盾主导阶段是资本主义发展的最后阶段。市场在时间和空间上将再无扩张的余地,“虚假需求”生产制造的人类必然的精神痛苦构成资本主义自我否定的动力源泉,“资本主义必然灭亡,社会主义必然胜利”的预言将在第三阶段以必然形式出现。     

Making Grossly Damaging But Avoidable Errors

No abstract available for this article.     

“无弦琴”的哲学解构

自沈约说陶渊明有"无弦琴",并时常"抚弄以寄其意"以来,不断被后人寻章摘句、过甚其词乃至玄化,同时也把它与陶渊明的人品和诗品结合得天衣无缝,于是都不自觉地否定了陶渊明的"性不解音"。其实唐宋文人的"玄解"无弦琴并不是要故作高深,而是借他人之酒杯浇自己之块垒,不料今人信以为真,以致以讹传讹。要还原无弦琴的本色,必须剥去玄学外衣,知人以论世,从其交游交友之道、任真自得之性、人生境界之别、世态人情等方面对"无弦琴"进行哲学解构,陶渊明真乃"性不解音"者,随之也就理解了他的"弄琴"只是率性而为,并无"寄意"。     

Bayesian Interval Estimation for the Difference in TPRs and FPRs of Two Diagnostic Tests with Unverified Negatives

We derive Bayesian interval estimators for the differences in the true positive rates and false positive rates of two dichotomous diagnostic tests applied to the members of two distinct populations. The populations have varying disease prevalences with unverified negatives. We compare the performance of the Bayesian credible interval to the Wald interval using Monte Carlo simulation for a spectrum of different TPRs, FPRs, and sample sizes. For the case of a low TPR and low FPR, we found that a Bayesian credible interval with relatively noninformative priors performed well. We obtain similar interval comparison results for the cases of a high TPR and high FPR, a high TPR and low FPR, and of a high TPR and mixed FPR after incorporating mildly informative priors.     

虚假的沉醉--评葛红兵《沙床》的时尚性和虚伪性

《沙床》是一个青年学者的内心倾诉。这种看似真诚的倾诉,实际上具有时尚性和虚伪性。其原因在于作者的创作动机与文本之间发生了游离,结果使作品染上了大众文化的特征。它反映出作者人格的分裂状态,更深层的原因则是对市场的屈从以及缺少精神的提升。     

The “False Memory” Defense: Using Disinformation and Junk Science In and Out of Court

SUMMARY

This article describes a seemingly sophisticated, but mostly contrived and often erroneous “false memory” defense, and compares it in a brief review to what the science says about the effect of trauma on memory. Child sexual abuse is widespread and dissociative/traumatic amnesia for it is common. Accused, convicted and self-confessed child molesters and their advocates have crafted a strategy that tries to negate their abusive, criminal behavior, which we can call a “false memory defense”. Each of 22 of the more commonly used components of this defense is described and discussed with respect to what the science says about them. Armed with this knowledge, survivors, their clinicians, and their attorneys will be better able to refute this defense of disinformation.