超大城市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展水平研究——基于Laplace混合政策模拟

人口增长与集聚为超大城市的发展提供动力,也给其自然资源系统带来极大扰动,使之呈现脆弱性特征;为实现超大城市人口—自然资源可持续发展,近年来政府实施了大量调控政策,但因对城市人口—自然资源系统的复杂互动难以精确量化,导致超大城市人口与自然资源关系治理困难重重。基于此,以北京市为例构建人口—自然资源系统可持续性评价框架,从政策干预视角,分析不同类型调控政策(如人口调控、技术改进、资源管制等)与人口、自然资源的因果关系,并利用Laplace准则结合决策者风险喜好,模拟混合政策干预对人口—自然资源系统可持续性带来的影响。结果显示:政策干预是保证北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续发展的重要手段,其中,人口调控政策是北京市人口—自然资源系统可持续性变动的主要影响因素,资源管制和技术改进是次要影响因素;随着政策干预强度的增加,由于人口系统安全性和自然资源系统脆弱性的互动博弈,北京市人口—自然资源可持续性逐渐趋于稳定;在Laplace情景下,人口安全性减弱了1.82%,损失不大;而自然资源脆弱性减弱了12.13%,收益较高;最终使得人口—自然资源系统可持续性增强了6.23%。因此,对于超大城市的政策干预需...     

基于BP神经网络的油气产量历史预测

分析了常规油田开发模型所存在的问题;探讨了应用神经网络技术进行油气产量历史预测的可行性。油田实际资料验证评价结果表明:该法模拟预测精度高,效果好,简单实用,不失为油气产量动态预测的一条新途径。     

Why spouses depress each other: A cross‐national study to test the shared resource hypothesis in depressive symptom concordance within older adult couples

The shared resource hypothesis suggests that married couples share the same environmental resources, which shape their health concordance. This study tests its cross‐national applicability. Cross‐sectional 2012–2013 Health and Retirement Study data from China, England, Mexico, and the United States were analyzed. Heterosexual couples (age ≥60) who were married or partnered were studied (N = 20,565 pairs). Dyadic data were analyzed by multilevel models to examine the effect of self and spousal social and physical health statuses on depressive symptoms. Regression models were used to test the relationship between couples' shared resources and depressive symptom concordance. Results indicated both husbands and wives' depressive symptoms were associated with their own and spouses' social and health statuses. Most couple‐level resources were insignificant predictors for Chinese and Mexican couples' concordance, but having more social and financial resources was associated with higher concordance among British and American couples. Self‐reported health was the most consistent predictor in all countries. The shared resource hypothesis was more applicable to depressive symptom concordance within couples in the United States and England, but not in China and Mexico. Couple‐centered intervention is suggested for clinical practice, and the spousal effect should be considered in policymaking.     

高校教师未充分就业感的成因分析与对策建议

未充分就业是指相对某些标准而言质量更低的就业。在文献研究和理论推理的基础上，厘清了未充分就业的概念，归纳出我国高校教师未充分就业的7种表现形式，并对高校教师未充分就业感的产生机理进行了探索，提出了降低高校教师未充分就业感的管理对策。     

Risk‐Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Transportation Corridors with Interval Uncertainties of Heterogeneous Data

Access management, which systematically limits opportunities for egress and ingress of vehicles to highway lanes, is critical to protect trillions of dollars of current investment in transportation. This article addresses allocating resources for access management with incomplete and partially relevant data on crash rates, travel speeds, and other factors. While access management can be effective to avoid crashes, reduce travel times, and increase route capacities, the literature suggests a need for performance metrics to guide investments in resource allocation across large corridor networks and several time horizons. In this article, we describe a quantitative decision model to support an access management program via risk‐cost‐benefit analysis under data uncertainties from diverse sources of data and expertise. The approach quantifies potential benefits, including safety improvement and travel time savings, and costs of access management through functional relationships of input parameters including crash rates, corridor access point densities, and traffic volumes. Parameter uncertainties, which vary across locales and experts, are addressed via numerical interval analyses. This approach is demonstrated at several geographic scales across 7,000 kilometers of highways in a geographic region and several subregions. The demonstration prioritizes route segments that would benefit from risk management, including (i) additional data or elicitation, (ii) right‐of‐way purchases, (iii) restriction or closing of access points, (iv) new alignments, (v) developer proffers, and (vi) etc. The approach ought to be of wide interest to analysts, planners, policymakers, and stakeholders who rely on heterogeneous data and expertise for risk management.     

我国社会发展目标和创新动力

“全面小康社会”、“和谐社会”、“资源节约型、环境友好型社会”、“学习型社会”的建设,均离不开创新活动,尤其是“自主创新”。“自主创新”是提高科技水平和经济竞争力的关键,也是调整经济结构、转变经济增长方式的中心环节。     

资源禀赋、电商认知与家庭农场主电子商务采纳行为

基于河北、江西和云南3省893个家庭农场调研数据,研究了资源禀赋、电商认知、政府扶持对家庭农场主电子商务采纳行为的影响机理。结果表明:资源禀赋中的家庭农场主受教育程度、电商培训和农产品特色明显程度对其电子商务行为采纳及采纳程度有显著正向影响;年龄、注册品牌、绿色或有机认证、产品深加工对采纳程度有显著正向影响;组织化和电商认知对电子商务采纳行为有显著正向影响;政府扶持对电子商务行为采纳具有显著正向影响,且对资源禀赋、电商认知 电子商务行为采纳及采纳程度关系中有正向调节效应。在此基础上,提出培育农产品电商品牌,提升农场主电商运营能力,创新电商经营模式和提高家庭农场组织化程度等建议。     

项目进村中村干部角色及村庄治理型态

村干部在村庄治理中扮演着关键角色,但在实践中村干部行为却出现了日益权变的趋向。通过对S省J县7个村庄的项目进村的案例比较研究发现:村庄资源禀赋与公众参与是影响和塑造村干部角色与行为的关键变量。项目进村中,村干部角色在国家“代理人”与村庄“当家人”的制度角色定位中出现了变异或偏移,呈现出“撞钟型”“横暴型”“分利型”“协调型”干部四种行为类型,村庄治理也由此呈现为“沉默秩序”“普力夺秩序”“谋利秩序”和“多元治理秩序”四种治理型态。新时代乡村治理重心下移,对村干部角色具有纠偏和规制效应,促使村干部角色回归其应然位置,促进乡村多元有序治理和良善秩序的生成。