Stereotype and National Attachment in Hong Kong Chinese Context: A Moderated Mediation Model of Perceived Inter-group Relationship and Age

The present study investigated the relationship between Hong Kong people’s stereotype toward Mainland people and their own national attachment (i.e., national identity, constructive patriotism, and uncritical patriotism). The role of inter-group relationship as mediator and age as moderator of that relationship were also tested. A total of 1753 local Hong Kong people aged 17–80 (mean age = 20.35 years, SD = 5.02) completed anonymous questionnaires regarding their stereotypes toward Mainland people, inter-group relationship with Mainland people, and national attachment. As expected, stereotypes toward Mainland people, inter-group relationship and national attachment showed significant positive associations with each other. More interestingly, it was found that the inter-group relationship mediated the relationship between stereotypes toward Mainland people and three domains of national attachment, with this indirect link being weaker for younger Hong Kong adults than for older Hong Kong adults. Implications of the present findings for future research are discussed, as well as potential interventions for increasing subjective national attachment to China, especially in young Hong Kong people.     

Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

Variable selection and estimation for high-dimensional spatial autoregressive models

Spatial regression models are important tools for many scientific disciplines including economics, business, and social science. In this article, we investigate postmodel selection estimators that apply least squares estimation to the model selected by penalized estimation in high-dimensional regression models with spatial autoregressive errors. We show that by separating the model selection and estimation process, the postmodel selection estimator performs at least as well as the simultaneous variable selection and estimation method in terms of the rate of convergence. Moreover, under perfect model selection, the ℓ₂ rate of convergence is the oracle rate of $\sqrt{s/n}$, compared with the convergence rate of $\text{◂√▸}\sqrt{s\log p/n}$ in the general case. Here, n is the sample size and p, s are the model dimension and number of significant covariates, respectively. We further provide the convergence rate of the estimation error in the form of $\sup$ norm, and ideally the rate can reach as fast as $\text{◂√▸}\sqrt{\log s/n}$.     

基于心理学视阈下的大学生学习动力不足原因及对策分析

学习动力是指对在校大学生的学习起到指导、调节和强化作用的一种有效系统。当代中国的社会转型期是一个建立在经济转型基础上的整个社会结构深刻变革的时代，物质需要和精神需要都发生深刻嬗变。总体而言，社会转型期大学生的学习动力是充足且积极向上的，但还有部分大学生的学习动力存在不足，与其所处的社会角色和社会责任严重不符。本文试图通过分析当代大学生学习动力不足的现状，进一步探讨大学生学习动力不足的原因和应对对策，以推动大学生学习动力问题研究向深层次发展。     

中国基层社会治理政策变迁:演化、特征与经验——基于1978-2019年国务院政策文本分析

基层社会治理是国家治理体系的重要基础,中国基层社会治理政策随着经济社会发展在国家治理体系变迁中逐渐形成了独特的治理方略和中国经验。基层社会治理政策涉及的领域众多,为准确提炼出其核心内容,本文基于文献关键词的主题聚类结果,选取改革开放以来国务院关于基层社会治理的政策文本,通过发文时间、类型分布等计量分析中国基层社会治理政策变迁总体脉络。运用NLPIR汉语分词系统对政策标题进行文本深度挖掘,根据政策热点主题和政策变迁趋势等,将中国基层社会治理政策演化分为恢复重建阶段、宏观调控阶段、重心转移阶段和系统推进阶段。基于多源流理论探析政策变迁中问题源流、政治源流与政策源流的耦合特征,发现中国基层社会治理政策从形式、动力、主体和目标四个层面逐渐形成了突发性变迁与渐进性变迁并存、内生性驱动和外在性拉动结合、党依法执政与政府依法行政共同推进、坚持以人民为中心和问题为导向创新的中国经验,为发挥中国基层社会治理的政策优势提供有益借鉴。     

出口产品质量与技能溢价：理论机制及中国证据

本文基于出口产品“质”的视角，理论阐释并实证检验出口产品质量对技能溢价的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：出口产品质量提高显著提升了劳动力技能溢价，这种提升效应在高技术行业更为明显；出口产品质量升级主要通过增加对高技能劳动力相对需求、改善企业利润和绩效等机制提升技能溢价，但出口产品质量影响技能溢价的产品价格机制未得到验证；技能溢价与高技能劳动力供给之间呈倒“U”型关系。因此，为防止出口产品质量升级加剧技能工资不平等，需要采取加强人力资本投资、增加高素质劳动力供给、完善与高质量外贸发展相适应的相对公平的收入分配政策等措施。     

A regularized variable selection procedure in additive hazards model with stratified case-cohort design

Case-cohort designs are commonly used in large epidemiological studies to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. In many such studies the number of covariates is very large. An efficient variable selection method is needed for case-cohort studies where the covariates are only observed in a subset of the sample. Current literature on this topic has been focused on the proportional hazards model. However, in many studies the additive hazards model is preferred over the proportional hazards model either because the proportional hazards assumption is violated or the additive hazards model provides more relevent information to the research question. Motivated by one such study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, we investigate the properties of a regularized variable selection procedure in stratified case-cohort design under an additive hazards model with a diverging number of parameters. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the penalized estimator and prove its oracle property. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed method with a modified cross-validation tuning parameter selection methods. We apply the variable selection procedure to the ARIC study to demonstrate its practical use.     

政治关联如何影响社会组织有效性？——组织自主性的中介作用和制度支持的调节作用

社会组织领域的政治关联现象日益显著，但政治关联究竟如何影响社会组织有效性，其隐藏的作用机制又是什么？这是学术界尚未明晰的重要课题。针对254家社会组织的问卷调查发现，社会组织政治关联会正向影响组织有效性，这一关系受到组织自主性的中介作用影响。更进一步的研究显示，制度支持能调节上述中介关系。具体而言，当制度支持水平较高时，这一效应将会增强；当制度支持水平较低时，政治关联通过组织自主性间接影响组织有效性的效应就会减弱。这一发现，一方面增进了我们对社会组织政治关联的理解，另一方面也为提升社会组织有效性的理论和实践提供了重要启示。     

Reweighted estimators for additive hazard model with censoring indicators missing at random

Survival data with missing censoring indicators are frequently encountered in biomedical studies. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for this type of data under the additive hazard model. Reweighting methods based on simple and augmented inverse probability are proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. Furthermore, we provide a numerical technique for checking adequacy of the fitted model with missing censoring indicators. Our simulation results show that the proposed estimators outperform the simple and augmented inverse probability weighted estimators without reweighting. The proposed methods are illustrated by analyzing a dataset from a breast cancer study.